The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 53 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Glyman: OpenAI and Anthropic will pass $300B combined revenue in a year
“And if you play out what they and OpenAI, just the two labs, are on track to do in revenue and call it a year's time I think it'd be reasonably conservative at this point to say they're gonna pass more than three hundred billion dollars a year in revenue, whic…”
Reil: Manned fighter jets will struggle against superhuman autonomous swarms
“Crude manned, you know, fighter jets were going to be very difficult to deploy in the future because you'll, you'll end up Facing these swarms of autonomous fighter jets with superhuman capabilities, and it's not science fiction.”
Iovine: AI will never write a song like Dylan's 'Blowin' in the Wind'
“AI will never be able to write Blown in the Wind by Bob Dylan. Not in anyone who's listening to this, or in my lifetime, for sure.”
Staniszewski predicts conversational AI will deliver human-like dialogue within 12 months
“So, so I think 12 months from now, what will happen is, is similar as we are speaking. It's, I think the technology will be able to understand us at an incredibly better way, both our knowledge, both the emotional part of that conversation and deliver, deliver…”
Dell: US electricity demand CAGR will jump 5x to 10%
“Over the last 20 years, electricity demand has gone at roughly a two percent compounded annual growth grade, and, you know, we think it'll go to, you know, somewhere on the order of 10%, which is obviously a five hex, which on a base as large as energy is real…”
Dell: Next 50 years of energy defined by solar, batteries, and software
“We think that there's a generational kind of paradigm shift happening in the energy industry, where the last five decades of energy were defined by coal and then Natural gas as the marginal megawatt. And the next five decades will be defined by solar batteries…”
Dell: AI will soon be the world's largest consumer of electricity
“And it's now the fastest growing and soon going to be the largest consumer of electricity in the world. And its name is AI.”
Reil: Future warfare will be autonomous machine battles where humans cannot survive
“I think it's going to be a battle of materiel. It's machines versus machines. The reason for this is that the autonomous mass, as we call it, so the number of drones that can fly in a coordinated way is getting better and better, and it's going to be very hard…”
Reil: Sending humans into battle will become unethical, forcing ground robot adoption
“And at the same time, if you want to have humans on the battlefield, I think it's going to be very difficult. And I think the trend is going to be, and I think people are realizing this, is that it's going to be unethical to send humans on a battlefield where …”
Altman: Better AI will strengthen non-tech businesses offering authentic experiences
“The better AI gets, the more some businesses that have nothing to do with AI, I think will be harder to compete with because we'll really want these like authentic non-technological experiences, or we'll care more about Sports teams or whatever. So no, not, no…”
Altman: AI scientific discovery will be more important than task automation
“Like, I think this is, I think this will be one of the most important areas, even more important than automation of other tasks that AI can do just to help us understand more things.”
Altman: Superintelligence will not fundamentally alter human social wiring
“This is why I think, like, the world is, on the whole, not going to be that different. Even with superintelligence, like, people are still going to be very fundamentally wired to care about other people, to want to be around other people to interact with other…”
Altman: AI will drive the greatest small-business creation boom in history
“And we are about to see the greatest boom in people starting smaller businesses that we have ever seen. I think AI is empowering that.”
Altman: OpenAI Will Be Best Across the Entire Cost-Performance Curve
“At every point on the cost curve, cost performance curve, we will be the best.”
Malka: AI will connect to money via blockchain smart contracts
“I think it's going to be that intersection between probably what blockchains will do and AI will do, because you will need to have intelligent smart contracts that will do stuff on your behalf”
Malka: Founder-led fintechs like Stripe and Nubank will win AI race
“I think it comes from them. Because first, they're still founder-led, or Revolut, also. They're still founder-led. Those founders are pushing the boundaries of all of this. They are at an age, and they are at a place, and if you talk to them, they're still as …”
DHH: AI Acceleration Likely to Cause Even Lean Teams to Overbuild
“So this is why I'm quite skeptical about all this new AI acceleration we're having is even us. I think it's quite likely that we could use it wrong to build too much software to get too far away from less software, learnable software that still has to fit in t…”
Glyman: AI tooling will reduce functional sub-specialization in companies
“In a world where, you know, someone who develops the product can use technologies that helps them sell more effectively, that helps them track That helps them track outreach, that helps them write with a better pitch on the first go, and these are real tools t…”
Scott Wu predicts humans will soon stop interacting directly with code
“We're not always, I mean, we're not gonna be interacting with code for that much longer, you know, or programs might not be the right, like level of abstraction, but I think what is always true probably is that it will be the human computer interface.”
Scott Wu predicts intent-to-execution AI development will be solved in five years
“But I honestly, I mean, I think we'll have solved most of that over the next five years or so.”
Scott Wu predicts AI systems will eventually work unassisted for a year
“And yeah, I think that's true, and I think we will get there.”
Stoute: A direct-to-fan creator data platform will emerge within three years
“The next evolution of this in the next three years, I have to be able to go direct, and I have to be able to collect that fan data. I want to send out the newsletter. I want to send out the fan, the sort of correspondence. Like, it's the platform you own. I no…”
White: TKO Will Build the Biggest Combat Sports Company in History
“We're gonna build The biggest combat sports company to ever exist. And that will probably ever exist. That's my goal in the next 10 years.”
Baszucki: Roblox will develop the best AI safety tech across text and voice
“Like I believe we will end up with the best AI tech for text, for voice, maybe for video, doing a wide range of safety things, either monitoring for critical harms, Flagging, adjusting, all of that.”
Baszucki: Money flowing to Roblox creators will increase despite AI concerns
“The thing we've said is we believe that money flowing to creators is going to increase, not decrease”
Spiegel expects companies to adopt flatter structures and wider spans of control
“Yeah, and I think, you know, generally speaking, I would expect the world to move towards flatter structures and much larger spans of control because like the communication and organization tax today is like night and day what it was 20 or 30 years ago. Like, …”
Andreessen: AI will probably produce more single-person companies
“But like, AI, there will probably be more, there will probably be more like single person companies, you know, from here on out.”
Iovine: AI will improve music without thwarting top creative talents
“AI is gonna make music better. AI is not gonna thwart great people. There will always be the next Billie Eilish. There will always be the next Kendrick Lamar. There will always be the next great talent.”
Dell: In year 30 Base Power will almost certainly make cells
“In year 30, it almost certainly will.”
Entrepreneurship will remain the final bastion of human economic value against AI
“Entrepreneurship is going to be the last bastion of human economic value. If they take everything from us, we will always have entrepreneurship. So, Shopify is sort of like a hedge against every job being taken because they can't take from us our agency and ou…”
Senra: Paid podcast feeds succeed on reciprocity even if unlistened to
“Like, most people never even listen to the content. They're just looking for an excuse because your podcast gave them so much value. That will always work. It worked today. It worked a hundred years ago, and it will work a hundred years from now.”
Stoute: Art galleries will lose relevance as artists demand resale carry and go direct
“You're gonna start to see that take place when artist sells work and they get a carry every time that work is sold. The galleries, which are the, at this point, necessary middleman, because the galleries are like, you wouldn't have an audience if it wasn't for…”
Older people will eventually attend church and work on Roblox
“Someday older people are going to go to church on the platform. Older people are going to work together on the platform. Older people are going to do other things.”
AI acceleration will turn Roblox game creation into mass-market consumption
“And I would say the good news is that vision may actually return, because I do think over time with AI acceleration, And all of the things we're working on, just like maybe in the very early days of video or YouTube was mostly consumptive. There was a little b…”
Lütke: 2026 will be the most interesting year in Shopify's history
“Year 21 is like, this is gonna be the most interesting year in our, in, in, in this complex history, probably in everyone, little, I think literally everyone's career.”
Jacobs predicts Citadel founder Ken Griffin could become US president someday
“He could be president of the United States someday.”
Staniszewski predicts three platforms will control customer interactions within three years
“If you think about the next three years or however many years, there will be probably three platforms that You set all the interactions on those platforms.”
Staniszewski: AI will transform internal company information flows through summarization
“And I think that that information flow will change with AI where You will have access to everything that's happening in a better granularity than you could ever have before, because it summarizes that back and back and forth.”
Staniszewski: Every Company Will Have a Revenue Engineering Function
“We think it's going to be such a big part where everybody, every company will have their revenue engineering function”
Staniszewski says communication will be the next bottleneck for accessing AI
“The next bottleneck of how you actually get access to that intelligence will be how you communicate with that intelligence, how you collaborate with that intelligence, and we can solve that.”
Malka: All future information will need to be machine-readable
“We're going to a world where every single piece of information needs to be readable by a machine. And that's how the world will go to the next generation.”
Glyman: AI token spend will become a third mega category for CFOs
“I think in a world where before it was fine for a CFO to go and say, I'm just going to, you know, manage my payroll, and I have a philosophy about how I'm going to decide how much to spend on that. I'm going to manage my vendors. I think there's going to be a …”
Ross: Machine micropayments will cause autonomous payment volumes to skyrocket
“Yeah, I think it's still early, and one of the limiters is payments aren't really built for this yet, but if you can make micropayments, the number of payments is going to skyrocket.”
AI agents will generate single-use code to automate white-collar workflows
“I think what we're gonna get to
Is we're going to get to a point where you are just giving your instructions to that agent and the agent on the back end, you know, you don't even have to look at this, but on the back end, the agent is going to figure out, oka…”
Scott Wu predicts society will forget living without AI within ten years
“But I think we'll kind of, Undergo the same period with AI where five years from now, it's going to be insane to think about all these things that we're going to have. 10 years from now, we're going to have forgotten that we ever lived without them, honestly.”
Söderström: Demand for agent-filtered 'premeditated media' will grow
“Premeditated media. Is something that, that I think everyone should at least have access to if they want to. It works for me and I think it will work for a lot of people. And I think it's, I think that need is not going to get less. I think it's going to get, …”