The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 148 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Independent studies show Snapchat boosts well-being, unlike TikTok or Instagram
“And I think what's so fascinating, I think now there's been maybe three or more of them, one out of Australia, I think one out of the Netherlands or something, one in the U.S., that show that Snapchat actually has a positive impact on people's well-being and r…”
Scaringe: Tesla Cybertruck cannot pass European pedestrian protection safety standards
“Like, for example, a Cybertruck would not, could not work in Europe.”
Collison: GDPR reduced profits for small European tech firms by up to 12%
“GDPR alone is estimated to have reduced profits for small tech firms in Europe by up to 12%.”
DeWahl: 100% 24/7 solar and battery storage costs rival nuclear
“Actually to get true hundred percent, 24 seven coverage, the battery or the excess build out is massive. It is really expensive. It's on, it's like basically on par with nuclear costs.”
Ricks: ICER found tirzepatide and semaglutide cost-effective at current pricing
“They just analyzed our medicines, trisepatide and semaglutide, and they said, actually, they're both cost effective at current pricing. In fact, Zepbound or Trisepatide was, the threshold they have is to save a 100,000 dollars per person per year in downstream…”
Ricks: Medicine accounts for only 10 cents of every US healthcare dollar
“In the US, the most expensive healthcare system in the world, we spend 10 cents on the dollar on medicine. The other 90 cents go through everything else that medicine's trying to prevent.”
Ricks: Eli Lilly's chronic knee pain study is going to work
“We have a study reading out toward the end of this year in chronic knee pain. It's going to work.”
Synthetic fuel production is 100 times more land-efficient than biological photosynthesis
“Plants are great. Even this plastic one here but their net throughput efficiency is about a hundred times lower than a synthetic process like the one we're using in terms of like, Area of land into reduced carbon fuel.”
US car seat mandates save 58 lives but avert 10,000 births annually
“Something like 58 children's lives are saved in the United States every year by statistically by car seats, and something like 10,000 births are averted by families who cannot afford to upgrade their cars”
Sundheim: GE Vernova trades at 2x Siemens Energy's enterprise value
“G Renova trades at two x the enterprise value of Siemens energy, just to give you a sense of like, and ultimately, there's no reason why the margin should be higher at G Renova. The revenue base is the same.”
Over one trillion selfies are captured on Snapchat annually
“Over a trillion selfies have been captured on Snapchat, right? And so I think when you know, in, in the, over the same period, and so when you.”
Xu: DoorDash cut COVID commissions 50%, costing over $100M
“Or in COVID, we were the only company to cut commissions by 50%. When we were not yet profitable as a company, that was an expense over a hundred million dollars.”
Xu: US food spend flipped from 80% groceries to 60% dining out
“It used to be that in the, you know, these are rough numbers, but in the 19 fifties when the government was measuring this, we would spend in this country, in America, maybe 75 to 80 cents on the dollar on groceries versus restaurants. In present day, you know…”
ElevenLabs expressive mode lets voice agents detect and match human emotions
“So today, finally, you can have both speed generation or entire voice agent experience With what we call expressive mode where the agent knows the emotions on the other side. So if the person is stressed, it can react and be reassuring and that's generating a …”
Pichai: BERT and MUM drove Google Search's largest quality leaps
“BERT and MUM, people underestimate how much, because we measure search quality so religiously, some of the biggest jumps in search quality in that period where search went ahead of everyone else was because of BERT and MUM. We built transformers and used it im…”
Pichai: Gemini Flash models reach 90% of Gemini Pro capability
“The flash models are at like 90% the capability of the pro models but much faster much more effective to serve and the vertical integration helps and so on.”
Pichai: Google scaled capital expenditures from $30 billion to $180 billion
“Look, I think, you know, we probably have scaled our capex from thirty billion to a hundred and approximately a hundred and eighty billion.”
Waymo Co-CEO: Gen-6 Custom Robotaxi Is Launching in 2026
“It's, you know, we're not, it's not open to the, you know, the public yet. But, you know, I took a ride in it the other day, fully autonomously, and that's coming this year.”
Waymo runs 3,000 cars delivering 500k rides and 4M miles weekly
“We have about 3000 cars on the roads. We're doing about half a million rides per week. It, that translates to about, you know, over four million fully autonomous miles per week. We are operating in a fully autonomous mode in 11 cities in the US and 10 of those…”
Lopes Lara: CFTC blocked Kalshi election markets for two years
“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”
Mansour: Kalshi logged $10.4B in trading volume in February
“So, so volume in February was 10.4 billion.”
Taylor: Ramp automates 90% of its customer support cases using Sierra
“Well, they're automating 90% of their cases.”
Langley: Stolen vehicles take 24 hours to reach the FBI database
“They will immediately put it in the Bay Area Flock hotlist immediately. It will take 24 hours to make it to the FBI hotlist. And that's a, you know, CSV file that gets sent around on FTP servers across the US.”
Langley: Federal law prevents police from shooting down criminal drones
“And then legally, even to today, law enforcement is not allowed to engage that drone. They can't take it down. It's FAA airspace. It's not law enforcement airspace.”
Collison: 2025 stablecoin payment volume doubled to $400B, 60% B2B
“In 25, the price of Bitcoin dropped precipitously and is now 50% down from October, but stablecoin payments volume doubled to around 400,000,000,060 percent of which is estimated to represent B to B payments.”
Collison: Klarna is the first bank to launch a stablecoin on Tempo
“Klarna, whose CEO was once a self-proclaimed crypto skeptic, became the first bank to launch a stablecoin, Klarna USD, on the Tempo testnet, using Bridge's open issuance to facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border settlement.”
Collison: Stripe Capital recipients grew 27 percentage points faster over one year
“Businesses that received and accepted capital offers grew, on average, 27 percentage points faster over the following year than the otherwise equivalent businesses who didn't.”
Glyman: Ramp powers over 2% of US business card transactions
“I believe today, ramp powers more than two percent of all corporate and small business card transactions in the United States, which is amazing for a business that, you know, ah, the product you couldn't even sign up for it six years ago.”
Depledge: UK Pension Allocation to Domestic Equities Fell From 60% to 6%
“60% of pensioners' money used to be in, in UK equities and riskier funds. It's now six percent.”
DeWahl: NRC rules now mandate licensing decisions within 18 months
“Right now, there's they've changed it to, you have 18 months to get your answer from the NRC. License or no license, like, do, do you pass or not?”
DeWahl: US Buys Almost 50% of Its Uranium From Russia and Ex-Soviet States
“And yeah, we're still buying, like, almost 50% of our uranium from Russia and, kind of, ex-Soviet states.”
DeWahl: US Government Plans $80B Nuclear Partnership with Westinghouse
“The announcement is that the U.S. Government now wants to spend eighty billion dollars on nuclear development alongside Westinghouse.”
DeWahl: Brookfield Moving to Complete Abandoned V.C. Summer Nuclear Plant
“There's a huge, like, trillion asset, trillion dollar asset under management company called Brookfield Asset Management, and they they've actually just gotten in the game as well. In the last couple weeks, I'm sure there was, like, talk, right? Yeah, yeah. To …”
DeWahl: Microsoft and Constellation are restarting Three Mile Island
“That's being brought up back online, partnership between Microsoft and Constellation, I believe.”
Nadella: Microsoft Copilot supports both OpenAI models and Anthropic's Claude
“On Copilot today, you use OpenAI models, you use even Claude, right? I need the system to work across both of those.”
Ricks: Lilly develops clinical drugs in under 7 years versus industry average
“Drug development time in the industry, It's about 10 years in the clinic, a little less right now. We're running a little less than seven at Lilly”
Ricks: Current GLP-1 drug pricing will fall amid competition and pressure
“And the current pricing isn't going to stay. Let's be honest. There'll be more competition. The government wants to lower our prices.”
Ricks: Most major hospital systems have failed price transparency compliance
“Compliance is terrible. Most major hospital systems have not complied. Or if they have, they put on a website somewhere a coded database that is impossible to interpret with ICD-X codes and price points that consumers cannot digest.”
Ricks: China had Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine rights but never approved it
“They had rights to the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine for almost the entirety of their pandemic. They never approved it.”
Ricks: Generic small-molecule medicines face no regulatory efficacy requirement
“There is no requirement For small molecule chemical medicine to show proof of efficacy of any kind. So you can do pretty simple laboratory experiments and absorption experiments in a small number of people.”
Ricks: Self-pay Zepbound is the #1 prescribed form of GLP-1s
“Actually, the number one prescribed form of these medications is Zep-bound self-buy. We sell more than that than our insured business, a new patient starts, and more than all of we go.”
If a region can grow food, it can synthesize its own fuel
“Everywhere pretty much that people live has enough sun that you can make, you know, can grow enough food to survive. And if you can grow enough food to survive, you can synthesize enough fuel to run your modern industrial economy.”
Cheap energy lets China outproduce the US in metals by up to 100x
“We're already in a situation right now where China is outproducing the United States on all the metals, like steel, aluminum, magnesium, and so on and so forth, by, like, a factor of between 10 and a hundred, because they're, Energy is cheap”
Scaringe: Rivian reached positive gross margin in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
“And so finally end of 24, beginning of 25, we started to hit positive gross margin. So, Q-four of 24, Q-one of 25, positive gross margin.”
Scaringe: Rivian captures 35% US market share in premium electric SUVs
“If you draw the boundary diagram around electric premium vehicles, so like premium SUVs that are over 70,000 dollars, we're by far the best-selling vehicle in that class of vehicles, so we have about 35% market share as we draw that boundary diagram”