The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 357 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Collison: GitHub pushes jumped 41% between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025
“Pushes to GitHub, which grew roughly 10 to 12% in prior years, jumped 41%. Between Q. Three, 24 and Q. Three, 25.”
Collison: 30% of Stripe cross-border revenue is outside top 10 economies
“Of businesses on stride that earn most of their revenue internationally, 30% of that revenue comes from countries that are neither their home market nor one of the top 10 global economies.”
Collison: Gamma's Indian revenue jumped 22% after adding UPI payments
“Gamma is a California-based AI platform used by seventy million people to create presentations. When they joined the first cohort of Stripe users to accept UPI payments in India, their Indian revenue jumped 22% in that very same month.”
Collison: Stripe-acquired Bridge saw stablecoin volume more than quadruple
“Bridge, the stablecoin orchestration platform we acquired, saw volume more than quadruple.”
Collison: Microsoft routes more payment volume to Stripe after auth rate gains
“Between June and October, Stripe delivered a meaningful increase in authorization rates for Microsoft using a combination of adaptive acceptance, card account updater, network tokens, and more. As a result, Microsoft is now routing a larger share of its paymen…”
Collison: Local payment rails like BLIK and Pix boost conversions up to 46%
“Presenting Blick to your customers in Poland drives an average 46% increase in checkout conversion. Offering Pix does the same in Brazil with a 31% average conversion uplift.”
Anthropologie, Etsy, and Coach adopt Stripe's new Agentic Commerce Suite
“Brands already onboarding to ACS include Anthropologie, Urban Outfitters, Etsy, Coach, Kate Spade, and a bunch more.”
Collison: Stripe partnered with OpenAI for ChatGPT shopping experience
“And we partnered with OpenAI to power the first shopping experience inside ChatGPT.”
Glyman: Ramp software business reached $100M ARR in two years
“Software, it's a, you know, two something year old business line, just about two years and some months.
that's over a hundred million a year business line in and of itself”
Glyman: Ramp Treasury holds several billion dollars in deposits after one year
“Treasury
You know, that's a product that is about a year old, several billion dollars of deposits.”
Glyman: Ramp helps average business cut expenses by 5% annually
“You know, we help the average company cut their expenses by about five percent per year.”
Rampell: Legal SaaS Vlex scaled from $20M to $100M in one year
“So, I met this company, V-Lex it's a 25 year old company. This guy Alex, bought up every legal record in Spain, like probably going back to 1492, like buys the, you know, here's the Ferdinand and Isabella, like, you know, here's the document, like I'm gonna ta…”
Narayan: UK Launched £500M Venture Unit and Novel Chip Market Commitment
“And so we launched a half a billion venture unit that James is going to chair. Launched a world first advanced market commitment for novel chips.”
Depledge: UK Has 44,000 Scale-Ups Generating Over £1 Trillion Output
“There's 44,000 scale-ups in the UK, they're generating over a trillion pounds worth of economic output, they're scaling faster than anyone else, they're creating good jobs”
Narayan: US leaders praised UK's £25B AI package while UK founders stayed quiet
“When we launched this huge twenty-five billion AI package last week we had a bunch of people, I had a bunch of people from the White House the head of the AI labs at Stanford basically tweeted out saying, this is the most advanced level of policymaking in AI g…”
Penicard: British Business Bank Mandated to Back Series B Deep Tech Directly
“The BBB is now starting to invest directly into some of those companies. They particularly identified series B deep tech companies as a funding issue. That's their mandate step into capital market points of failure.”
Bowman: FTSE 250 Underperformed S&P 500 Over 15 Years Even Without Mag Seven
“I think that when you look at, for example, the performance of listed companies, so the FTSE two 50, which is primarily like actually UK operating companies, has performed kind of catastrophically bad over the kind of past 15 years compared to the S&P 500. Lik…”
DeWahl: US missile defense sites still rely on diesel generators
“Our, you know, our missile defense sites are sitting there, like, being powered by diesel generators still, like, shouldn't we upgrade that?”
DeWahl: 50% of Afghanistan War casualties were tied to logistics
“I mean, it was 50% of the, I think the Afghanistan casualties were from just logistics.”
DeWahl: State-level nuclear energy bans are falling across the US
“There's actually many states in the US that have bans as well, but they've just been falling left and right.”
DeWahl: Nuclear energy support surged nearly 20 points to over 60%
“The, like, percentage point change we've seen in the last five to 10 years is almost 20 points. I mean, it's like 17 points or something. Yes. So it's 60 plus percent of people support nuclear.”
DeWahl: US Army Janus Program to Fund 3 to 5 Prototype Nuclear Reactors
“The Army has taken that model a bit, and I think used that as inspiration for this Janus program, where they're saying, we're going to fund up to kind of three to five companies to build their first prototype alongside us, kind of at a base, and then we will k…”
DeWahl: US Military Is Largest Buyer of Non-Commodity Energy
“The largest buyer of non-commodity energy, if not all energy.”
DeWahl: No one is processing nuclear-grade graphite in the US
“The graphite that I brought here is actually from a Japanese company, right? No one's even processing that stuff in the U.S.”
DeWahl: US grid demand is projected to surge to 5% annual growth
“It was less than one percent year-over-year growth for twenty-plus years, and now it's like, people are like, estimating five percent annual growth next year, like, oh my gosh.”
Nadella: Early Microsoft doubted TCP/IP would work over quality-of-service concerns
“Remember, the quality, like, I don't think we believed that TCP IP would work. Right. I mean, at some level, the information highway when I look at what we were trying to do was, man, this quality of service is a thing, this TCP IP, what, it just is not going …”
Collison: Stripe's elevated online business creation never dropped post-lockdown
“There's a lot of charts of the shape of Stripe, I don't know if it's this way of Microsoft, where obviously March, 2020, you saw this discontinuity, right? Much more e-commerce activity happening, and we saw the rate of online business creation because, you kn…”
Collison: AI simplifies conversational commerce integrations for online merchants
“What's different here is, one, you have AI. So all the integrations for the merchant are much easier. It's much less of a lift than previous Times when things like that, this have been tried.”
Ricks: Lilly will spend nearly 25% of revenue on R&D this year
“We'll spend almost 25% of sales this year.
John Collison: I liked your way of putting us that you spend more on medical R&D than Germany does.
Dave Ricks: Yes.
Dave Ricks: Yeah.
Dave Ricks: We're at the nation state level. It'll be, you know, fourteen billion …”
Ricks: Around 80 GLP-1 drug candidates are in clinical pipelines globally
“We only have two right now, but there's probably 80 in clinical pipelines right now globally. We have 11 others, but there's probably 70 others not coming from Lilly.”
Ricks: The US and China hold 70% of global diagnostic capacity
“The US and China have something like 70% of all diagnostic capacity in the world.”
Ricks: Over half of approved drugs originate in biotech, but few finish
“While it's true that the origin of, I think it's a little more than half of medicines approved in the last 10 years have come from biotech, hardly any of those traveled all the way through biotech.”
Ricks: 80% of effective COVID treatments were produced in US
“Basically, 80% of the medicines and vaccines that worked were produced in the United States.”
Ricks: Marketing halves medical adoption time from 16 to eight years
“And there's been studies on this of medical inventions that are not promoted... It's about a sixteen-year path to full adoption. With the medicine promoted, it's half that. We have an internal goal to half that again, to get to four years, to full whatever it …”
Collison: Most foreign banking markets have only three to eight banks
“People in the U.S. Do not have a good mental model for how different the banking ecosystem in every other country is, because the U.S. Is so sweet generous, it's like, 5000 banks or whatever the number is currently in the U.S., whereas every other banking mark…”
Abrams: Simultaneous card authorizations against a crypto balance can double-spend
“If during the exact same moment, two transactions are authorized at the exact same time on the same card from the same balance, then both would, in theory, be approved.”
Handmer: Henry Kaiser's organization invented employer-sponsored healthcare
“They invented employer-sponsored healthcare, which became Kaiser Permanente.”
Handmer: Solar panel costs fall 20% annually with production doubling every two years
“It's like forty-something percent per doubling of production, and currently production's doubling roughly every two years. So you could say 20% a year. That's the panel by itself.”
Handmer: California needs 14-15M additional acre-feet of water to meet demand
“We need about 14 or fifteen million more acre feet to saturate demand. That's about double what we currently have.”
Handmer: Bureau of Reclamation has not built a major dam in 50 years
“The Bureau of Reclamation hasn't built a major dam in 50 years, so they've pretty much forgotten how at this point, I think.”
John Collison admits Stripe was much more Patrick's idea than his own
“Stripe was much more his idea than mine.”
Sundheim: Private equity hires take three years to contribute at D1
“Now, like, if I hire somebody from private equity, it takes about three years for them to really be, like, contributing to the one.”
Sundheim: D1's diversified short alpha matches its concentrated era
“Our short alpha since that time, and since we implemented the more diverse portfolio you referenced, our short alpha has been as good or better”
Sundheim: Siemens Energy and GE Vernova have near-identical revenue and businesses
“Siemens Energy and GE Vinova are basically the same company. Like, there's no two companies I've ever looked at that are more similar. They have almost the same revenue, dollar revenue, I think it's like, 45, 50.”
Sundheim: 70% of major breakthrough technologies trigger stock bubbles
“I think if you look back in history, 70% of the time that you have this kind of, like, major breakthrough technology, there is a stock market bubble.”
Scaringe: Suppliers laughed at Rivian's electric SUV pitch in 2013–2014
“In, like, 2013, 20 14, I would go meet with suppliers, you know, and CEOs of very large suppliers and say, we're working on an electric SUV and electric truck as a flagship product. Following that, we want to launch more affordable electric SUVs. And the lack …”