The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 217 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dolgov: Waymo vehicles rely on cameras, lidars, and radars for 360-degree vision
“We use three different sensing modalities. There's cameras, there's lighters or lasers, and there are radars. You know, those are the primary ones. There are, you know, also microphones, directional, you know, microphone arrays, but those are the primary three…”
Dolgov: Waymo requires zero real-time cloud connectivity for driving inference
“Nothing real-time in the cloud, and there are some things that can happen, you know, in the cloud, But they're not required.”
Dolgov: Waymo Gen-6 Driver Will Expand to Hyundai Ioniq in 2026
“And then we're gonna put the six generation Waymo driver on other vehicle forms like the Hyundai Ionic that's coming, you know later in the year.”
Huang: Tech companies suing regulators is more common than conventional wisdom suggests
“Coinbase has sued their primary regulator and GovTech, SpaceX, Andrew Palantir all had to sue for various reasons. So it seems like it's actually more common than Silicon Valley conventional wisdom.”
Lopes Lara: Upfront collateral requirements impair prediction market making
“The third one is really margining systems. Right now it's very bad. You have to put all the money up front. Right. Which makes a lot of, for example, will a hurricane happen this year? Very, very bad for you to be actually like market making or selling those c…”
Collison: Sportsbooks take ~10% whereas prediction markets take ~1%
“The rate for sports betting companies is around 10%, and the order of magnitude for prediction markets is, you know, one percent or a few points.”
Mansour: Political candidates are using prediction market prices for campaign decisions
“Well, the candidates are using the, like, are using the prediction market prices to inform.”
Collison: Mainstream AI chat interfaces still lack persistent memory in 2026
“Still in twenty-twenty-six, if you open a new Gemini chat, or if you open a new ChatGPG chat, it's basically a blank slate. There's no memory.”
Langley: Police helicopters increasingly disable ADS-B to evade criminal tracking
“We're seeing more and more police helicopters have to turn off ADS-B as well. Because like criminals have the same data that you have. And so most of the police officers actually fly without ADS, you know, which is like a whole challenge.”
Langley: Flock Safety stores all system audit logs forever and publicly
“Every single action in our system, the audit is stored in perpetuity, and it's publicly available.”
Langley: Most Crimes Solved by Flock Safety Are Non-Violent
“The majority of the crime we solve is not violent.
It's non-violent.”
Collison: Cursor reached over $100M ARR in just three years
“Cursor, the AI-powered coding assistant, raced to over one hundred million dollars in recurring revenue in just three years.”
Collison: Lovable hit $17M ARR in 3 months, Bolt $20M ARR in 2 months
“We're also seeing the likes of Lovable, which hit seventeen million dollars ARR in just three months, Bolt, achieving twenty million ARR in two months, and Kodo, radically lower the barrier for turning software ideas into working applications.”
Collison: SpaceX uses Bridge for Starlink fund repatriation in emerging markets
“SpaceX uses Bridge to repatriate funds from Starlink sales in Argentina, Nigeria, and other markets.”
Collison: Stablecoin volumes doubled year-over-year as active wallets hit 40M
“Stablecoin transaction volumes more than doubled between Q four, 20, 23 and Q four, 20, 24. And the number of monthly active stablecoin wallets has now reached forty million.”
Collison: An estimated 99% of stablecoin balances are USD-based
“We further note with interest that despite regulatory uncertainty in the United States, early stablecoin adoption has shown a notable US dollar preference, with an estimated 99% of stablecoin balances being USD-based.”
Collison: US productivity reached $104/hr versus $85/hr in Europe
“While the economies of the US and Europe were similarly productive in 1990, there has since been a stark divergence, with US productivity per hour works reaching 104 dollars, as compared with a plateau of something closer to 85 dollars per hour in Europe.”
Collison: GitHub pushes jumped 41% between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025
“Pushes to GitHub, which grew roughly 10 to 12% in prior years, jumped 41%. Between Q. Three, 24 and Q. Three, 25.”
Collison: Most profitable third of US public companies holds two-thirds of market cap
“Today, the most profitable third of publicly listed companies in the United States accounts for two-thirds of the total market capitalization, the highest share since data began in 1963.”
Anthropologie, Etsy, and Coach adopt Stripe's new Agentic Commerce Suite
“Brands already onboarding to ACS include Anthropologie, Urban Outfitters, Etsy, Coach, Kate Spade, and a bunch more.”
Collison: Stripe partnered with OpenAI for ChatGPT shopping experience
“And we partnered with OpenAI to power the first shopping experience inside ChatGPT.”
Rampell: Legal SaaS Vlex scaled from $20M to $100M in one year
“So, I met this company, V-Lex it's a 25 year old company. This guy Alex, bought up every legal record in Spain, like probably going back to 1492, like buys the, you know, here's the Ferdinand and Isabella, like, you know, here's the document, like I'm gonna ta…”
Narayan: UK Launched £500M Venture Unit and Novel Chip Market Commitment
“And so we launched a half a billion venture unit that James is going to chair. Launched a world first advanced market commitment for novel chips.”
Depledge: UK Has 44,000 Scale-Ups Generating Over £1 Trillion Output
“There's 44,000 scale-ups in the UK, they're generating over a trillion pounds worth of economic output, they're scaling faster than anyone else, they're creating good jobs”
Penicard: British Business Bank Mandated to Back Series B Deep Tech Directly
“The BBB is now starting to invest directly into some of those companies. They particularly identified series B deep tech companies as a funding issue. That's their mandate step into capital market points of failure.”
Bowman: FTSE 250 Underperformed S&P 500 Over 15 Years Even Without Mag Seven
“I think that when you look at, for example, the performance of listed companies, so the FTSE two 50, which is primarily like actually UK operating companies, has performed kind of catastrophically bad over the kind of past 15 years compared to the S&P 500. Lik…”
DeWahl: No one is processing nuclear-grade graphite in the US
“The graphite that I brought here is actually from a Japanese company, right? No one's even processing that stuff in the U.S.”
DeWahl: US missile defense sites still rely on diesel generators
“Our, you know, our missile defense sites are sitting there, like, being powered by diesel generators still, like, shouldn't we upgrade that?”
DeWahl: 50% of Afghanistan War casualties were tied to logistics
“I mean, it was 50% of the, I think the Afghanistan casualties were from just logistics.”
DeWahl: State-level nuclear energy bans are falling across the US
“There's actually many states in the US that have bans as well, but they've just been falling left and right.”
DeWahl: Nuclear energy support surged nearly 20 points to over 60%
“The, like, percentage point change we've seen in the last five to 10 years is almost 20 points. I mean, it's like 17 points or something. Yes. So it's 60 plus percent of people support nuclear.”
DeWahl: US Army Janus Program to Fund 3 to 5 Prototype Nuclear Reactors
“The Army has taken that model a bit, and I think used that as inspiration for this Janus program, where they're saying, we're going to fund up to kind of three to five companies to build their first prototype alongside us, kind of at a base, and then we will k…”
DeWahl: US Military Is Largest Buyer of Non-Commodity Energy
“The largest buyer of non-commodity energy, if not all energy.”
Nadella: Early Microsoft doubted TCP/IP would work over quality-of-service concerns
“Remember, the quality, like, I don't think we believed that TCP IP would work. Right. I mean, at some level, the information highway when I look at what we were trying to do was, man, this quality of service is a thing, this TCP IP, what, it just is not going …”
Ricks: The US and China hold 70% of global diagnostic capacity
“The US and China have something like 70% of all diagnostic capacity in the world.”
Ricks: Over half of approved drugs originate in biotech, but few finish
“While it's true that the origin of, I think it's a little more than half of medicines approved in the last 10 years have come from biotech, hardly any of those traveled all the way through biotech.”
Ricks: Lilly will spend nearly 25% of revenue on R&D this year
“We'll spend almost 25% of sales this year.
John Collison: I liked your way of putting us that you spend more on medical R&D than Germany does.
Dave Ricks: Yes.
Dave Ricks: Yeah.
Dave Ricks: We're at the nation state level. It'll be, you know, fourteen billion …”
Ricks: Around 80 GLP-1 drug candidates are in clinical pipelines globally
“We only have two right now, but there's probably 80 in clinical pipelines right now globally. We have 11 others, but there's probably 70 others not coming from Lilly.”
Collison: Most foreign banking markets have only three to eight banks
“People in the U.S. Do not have a good mental model for how different the banking ecosystem in every other country is, because the U.S. Is so sweet generous, it's like, 5000 banks or whatever the number is currently in the U.S., whereas every other banking mark…”
Abrams: Simultaneous card authorizations against a crypto balance can double-spend
“If during the exact same moment, two transactions are authorized at the exact same time on the same card from the same balance, then both would, in theory, be approved.”
Handmer: Bureau of Reclamation has not built a major dam in 50 years
“The Bureau of Reclamation hasn't built a major dam in 50 years, so they've pretty much forgotten how at this point, I think.”
Handmer: Henry Kaiser's organization invented employer-sponsored healthcare
“They invented employer-sponsored healthcare, which became Kaiser Permanente.”
Handmer: Solar panel costs fall 20% annually with production doubling every two years
“It's like forty-something percent per doubling of production, and currently production's doubling roughly every two years. So you could say 20% a year. That's the panel by itself.”
Sundheim: Siemens Energy and GE Vernova have near-identical revenue and businesses
“Siemens Energy and GE Vinova are basically the same company. Like, there's no two companies I've ever looked at that are more similar. They have almost the same revenue, dollar revenue, I think it's like, 45, 50.”