The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 111 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Staniszewski calls Ukraine's government tech the most advanced he has seen
“So tacked forward, like the most advanced set of work we've seen.”
Cacioppo: Vanta's Highway 101 billboard drove hundreds of millions in market cap
“Arguably, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars in market cap attributed to that billboard.”
Cacioppo: ISO 42001 leads AI compliance, but none have breakout product-market fit
“The pros are that European enterprises are the ones that care the most about AI, and this is where they would turn, and so it's the thing that has the most market traction so far. But like none of these are like breakout. None of them have product market fit.”
Mansour: Prediction markets attract users because culture is more engaging than earnings
“The interesting point, I think, and I think this is part of why prediction markets are being adopted so, so, so much is people like this idea that if like your edge is proportional to your research, how informed you are, how much time and energy you put into t…”
Taylor: Hobbyist AI agent adoption began with a rogue open-source project
“It's probably the first, I wouldn't have predicted the first kind of broad, I don't know if consumer is exactly accurate, but maybe a hobbyist use of AI would have been this kind of semi-rogue open source project that goes through three name changes in three d…”
Pope: Google's decision to build TPUs specifically for neural nets paid off
“They at least had the option, like the opportunity to design the TPUs for neural nets at least rather than graphics applications like NVIDIA. And so the overall architecture starting with single core doing what was at the time reasonably large systolic arrays …”
Pope: TPUv1 announcement catalyzed the 2016-2017 AI chip startup wave
“TPUv one was announced in 2016, I think. That was what actually kind of led to the creation of all of those 2016, 20 17 startups. So Cerebus, Gronk, Graphcore, SambaNova, all of those.”
Collison: B2B bill payment has resisted modernization for 40 years
“It seems like bill payment,
Has proven over the past 40 years uniquely resistant to automation and modernization.”
Stripe needed Bridge and Privy to advance in crypto, says Collison
“At some level, Bridge and Privy make me much more bullish on M&A, because we had an idea going in, and Stripe was very much taking crypto and stablecoins seriously, and there's no way we would collectively be where we are now or there's no way Stripe would be …”
Sundheim: Cyclical over-earning shorts are the least attractive archetype
“And then I'd say the last, ah, and least attractive shorts are the ones where it's like, cyclically, they're just over earning a lot, and you believe that the real earnings, if you were to look like through a cycle, are much lower than people think.”
Collison: Traditional SaaS growth benchmarks do not apply to many AI companies
“Obviously that growth curve does not apply to many AI companies.”
Vogt: End-to-end autonomous laundry is the milestone for home robotics
“To get a machine that thinks in this very rigid world to work with such malleable items has been like this tough research problem for a long time for anyone to be able to go buy a thing, put it in their home and without any other instruction than like my cloth…”
Ben Thompson: Taiwan is the best and most convenient place to live
“The best place to live is undoubtedly Taiwan. The one word everyone says for Taiwan sounds not that impressive, but the word is convenient. Like, it is the most convenient place to live.”
Ben Thompson: Taiwan is arguably the greatest Uber Eats market ever
“Taiwan is arguably the greatest Uber Eats market ever, because there, there's amazing options. It's all delivered by scooter, so it's always like 10 minutes to get dinner and things along those lines.”
Collison: Buffett's early partnership letters show raw ambition sanded off later
“What's interesting is I find it stylistically very different. This is the late fifties, early sixties, and it's before he got so polished, you know, it's before he got so folksy and approachable and careful in what he said, and a little more of the raw ambitio…”