China

18 statements across 6 episodes · 4 bullish · 5 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Oct 14, 2025 by RJ Scaringe · said 94 times in 14 episodes since 2025 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by John Collison (42), Patrick Collison (15), Casey Handmer (9), Ben Thompson (9), Garrett Langley (4), Dave Ricks (4), Tony Xu (3), Sundar Pichai (2)

tap a year for its mentions
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051020252026episodes it came up in
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2026 32 mentions in 5 episodes 6 per episode
2025 62 mentions in 9 episodes 7 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about China, oldest first

Oct 14, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: China has 3.5 to 4 times higher EV adoption than the US
“And then if you compare this to China, where there is a lot more choice China is a, Three and a half, four times higher level of adoption of electrification than we are, and the slope of the curve is very steep.”
RJ Scaringe Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 1:08:11 How to build a $16B car company with RJ Scaringe, founder of Rivian
Oct 14, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Auto Production Will Shift to China Without Trade Friction
“If There's zero trade friction between, let's say, a country and China. More production in the fullness of time will shift to China because of those advantages. The lower cost of labor, the lower cost of capital.”
RJ Scaringe Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 1:03:53 How to build a $16B car company with RJ Scaringe, founder of Rivian
Oct 14, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Chinese EV Cost Advantage Stems from Government-Subsidized Capital
“What's driven the cost down is that you have the compounding benefits of much lower cost of capital across not just this, the manufacturer, the vehicle manufacturer, but across their whole supply chain. So tier one, tier two, tier three, everyone's cost of cap…”
RJ Scaringe Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 1:02:41 How to build a $16B car company with RJ Scaringe, founder of Rivian
Oct 22, 2025 bearish
Disclosure
Sundheim: D1 Capital stopped investing in China around 2022
“Yeah, we stopped investing in China about three years ago.”
Dan Sundheim Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 1:09:54 Dan Sundheim of D1 Capital on the art of public market investing
Oct 28, 2025 neutral
What-if
Handmer: Absence of German solar subsidies would have only delayed adoption 1-2 years
“In the kind of fact, Germany didn't do it, right? Well, Spain still did it a little bit, and Australia did it a little bit. You know, maybe it would have delayed things by a year or two. Yeah. But like, as soon as, say, China started to do it at scale, they wo…”
Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 28:34 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea
Oct 28, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
China deployed more solar in three months than the US has historically
“China has deployed more solar in, like, the last three months than the United States has ever deployed ever.”
Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 28:55 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea
Oct 28, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035
China's electrification will end its dependence on Strait of Malacca oil
“Do you think by 2035 China is still going to be as dependent on oil through the Strait of Malacca? I don't. At the rate that they're deploying right now, they could cut off that supply if they needed to.”
Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 29:42 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea
Oct 28, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
SpaceX controls approximately 95% of the global space launch market
“In the space sector, at least, it's quite astounding the extent to which SpaceX is dominant. Right. This is not the case that, like, Apple has, what, 2030, 40% market share in smartphones, and Pixel has 10%, and Huawei and so on has a, this is like, SpaceX has…”
Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 45:12 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea
Oct 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Cheap energy lets China outproduce the US in metals by up to 100x
“We're already in a situation right now where China is outproducing the United States on all the metals, like steel, aluminum, magnesium, and so on and so forth, by, like, a factor of between 10 and a hundred, because they're, Energy is cheap”
Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 35:11 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea
Oct 28, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Handmer predicts China will beat the United States to the Moon
“Relax the outer space treaty in 2017 with the outer space, so the Artemis Accords, so we can go and kind of make a land grab on the moon, and then it turns out China's going to get there first.”
Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 1:14:22 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea
Nov 11, 2025
Assertion Supported
Ricks: China had Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine rights but never approved it
“They had rights to the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine for almost the entirety of their pandemic. They never approved it.”
Dave Ricks Nov 11, 2025 ▶ 1:15:57 Dave Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, on GLP-1s and the business of pharma
Nov 11, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Ricks: The US and China hold 70% of global diagnostic capacity
“The US and China have something like 70% of all diagnostic capacity in the world.”
Dave Ricks Nov 11, 2025 ▶ 53:56 Dave Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, on GLP-1s and the business of pharma
Nov 11, 2025
Assertion Supported
Ricks: China now accounts for 30% of global drug pipeline
“It's 30%.”
Dave Ricks Nov 11, 2025 ▶ 1:07:45 Dave Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, on GLP-1s and the business of pharma
Feb 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Ben Thompson: TikTok data concerns are overblown compared to algorithmic control
“The problem with TikTok, and back then everyone was talking about user data. Who cares? Like the whole user data thing, people have this view of like the East German Stasi and like folders, like going through people's data. Like these are like vector databases…”
Ben Thompson Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 25:10 Ben Thompson from Stratechery on AI ads, the end of SaaS, and the future of media
Feb 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Ben Thompson: US TikTok divestiture is a disaster because China retains control
“The way that it shows up messily is we somehow do pass the law banning TikTok and it didn't get banned. And now it is sold, but China still controls the algorithm. So I think it's a big disaster.”
Ben Thompson Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 27:43 Ben Thompson from Stratechery on AI ads, the end of SaaS, and the future of media
Apr 21, 2026
Assertion Supported
Xu: China has over 7M restaurants versus 1M in the US
“China has a lot of restaurants, you know, six, over seven million restaurants, you know, versus what we have here in the U.S. At about a million restaurants in, in comparison, for example.”
Tony Xu Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 15:29 The economics and trends of the restaurant industry, with Tony Xu of DoorDash
Apr 21, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Xu: Dozens of Chinese cities match or exceed Manhattan's population density
“In China there are many dozens of cities over a million in population, and the population density is even perhaps higher than that of Manhattan.”
Tony Xu Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 12:51 The economics and trends of the restaurant industry, with Tony Xu of DoorDash
Apr 21, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Xu: Eating out in China is as affordable as cooking at home
“Eating out in China is about as affordable as cooking, you know, at home.”
Tony Xu Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 11:48 The economics and trends of the restaurant industry, with Tony Xu of DoorDash
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