The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mills: DOE will compromise on proposed transformer efficiency standard
“They asked for public, the Department of Energy asked for public comment, and I think there was enough out there and enough concern expressed that I suspect a compromise position is going to come out. I don't think what they had originally released will actual…”
Mills: Pad-mounted transformer lead times reach as long as two years
“But those pad bound transformers, both single phase and three phase, still pretty darn long. I've seen things as long as two years right now on either.”
Mills: Building a new transformer plant costs $100M and takes 1-2 years
“And then if you really had no equipment availability, and you had to add a new facility or a new line, you're talking hundreds of millions of dollars, well, hundred million dollars of investment in order to get that facility stood up. And then the lead time to…”
Mills: Pole-mount transformer lead times are normalizing but remain up to a year
“The single-phase pole-mount transformers, the gray ones that are up on a utility pole, I think the supply chain there is getting closer to being caught up, right? And so lead times are normalizing. They still might be upwards of a full year just because of the…”
Mills: US transformer manufacturing capacity was likely flat from 2007 to 2021
“My gut tells me if you looked at the total capacity in the U.S. For building a transformer in 20 or 2007 versus 20 21, it was probably constant.”
Mills: Cleveland-Cliffs is the only US grain-oriented steel maker
“It's a very specialized steel, and in the United States, there's literally one manufacturer that makes grain-oriented steel, and that's Cleveland Cliffs. And their plant is essentially operating at a hundred percent capacity.”
Mills: 95% to 98% of US transformers use grain-oriented steel
“The problem is about, I'm guessing, 95 to 98% of all the transformers that are being produced in America are using grain-oriented steel.”
Mills: Distribution transformer prices surged 75% to 100% over two years
“Pricing has increased a lot over the last couple of years. I would say on average, 75 to a hundred percent increase in price.”
Mills: In 2018, distribution transformer lead times were 12 to 14 weeks
“In 2018, I think most customers, most utilities, Felt really, really comfortable with the distribution transformer supply chain. They'd pick up the phone, or they'd, they'd shoot over a PO, and in anywhere from 12 to 14 weeks, that transformer was showing up o…”