The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Hade: C&I battery storage will be fastest-growing storage sector by rate
“I think, you know, for reasons we'll talk about, there are some compelling reasons to believe that CNI over the next three to five years is going to be the fastest growing sector of the market. [1717] Shayle Kann: Ooh, that's an ambitious, well, I guess from a…”
Tim Hade Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 28:29 The commercial battery comeback
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Hade: AI tooling will slash C&I battery transaction costs 90% in three years
“So my best guess is, you know, over the next three years, the transaction cost bucket will go from an average of about 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to maybe 20 dollars a kilowatt hour. I think there's going to be a 90% reduction in the cost in sort of transacti…”
Tim Hade Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 34:38 The commercial battery comeback
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hade: A catastrophic power grid failure will occur in the United States
“A catastrophic grid failure is going to happen, and when that catastrophic grid failure happens, the question's going to be, why didn't we think about resilience more?”
Tim Hade Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 16:49 The market for microgrids
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hade: Hyperscaler 'bring your own capacity' deals will surge within 48 months
“Definitely over the next like 36 to 48 months. My guess is bring your own capacity, right, which is sort of the umbrella term for everything I'm talking about is going to be a very, very, very quickly growing sector of this market, because when hyperscalers th…”
Tim Hade Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 42:48 The commercial battery comeback
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Hade: C&I battery installation costs will halve to $100/kWh in five years
“And then on the installation cost side of things, it's a little bit more difficult to predict, but I think we're probably looking at like having that over the next five years. So going from 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to a hundred dollars a kilowatt hour.”
Tim Hade Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 34:57 The commercial battery comeback
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hade: Standardized, off-the-shelf microgrid purchasing is probably a decade away
“I think that's the goal of everyone in the industry is to try to make it as easy to buy a microgrid as an air conditioning. I don't know, we're probably like a decade away from that”
Tim Hade Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 35:57 The market for microgrids
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