The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hade: C&I battery storage will be fastest-growing storage sector by rate
“I think, you know, for reasons we'll talk about, there are some compelling reasons to believe that CNI over the next three to five years is going to be the fastest growing sector of the market.
[1717] Shayle Kann: Ooh, that's an ambitious, well, I guess from a…”
Hade: AI tooling will slash C&I battery transaction costs 90% in three years
“So my best guess is, you know, over the next three years, the transaction cost bucket will go from an average of about 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to maybe 20 dollars a kilowatt hour. I think there's going to be a 90% reduction in the cost in sort of transacti…”
Hade: A catastrophic power grid failure will occur in the United States
“A catastrophic grid failure is going to happen, and when that catastrophic grid failure happens, the question's going to be, why didn't we think about resilience more?”
Hade: California is building basically no solar-only projects right now
“There are basically no solar-only projects being built in California right now.”
Hade: Clean long-duration storage is not remotely economically viable today
“So we're looking into things like, you know, iron air batteries, and nickel hydrogen batteries, and you know, hydrogen as a consumable fuel, right? But nothing even, like, comes remotely close to being economically viable right now for us, right? And so maybe …”
Hade: Utility scale is 90% of US battery growth and C&I is virtually zero
“Of that, you know, roughly 40 gigawatts of storage that's been added to the grid over the last five years something like 90% of it is utility scale, and 10% is residential, and if you add 90 and 10, that gets to a hundred, which means that basically nothing is…”
Hade: PJM capacity prices have increased 11x over 36 months
“The way to think about this in PJM, right, is capacity prices have gone up 11 X in the last 36 months.”
Hade: Battery storage hardware costs dropped 30% to 40% over 18 months
“So at the pack level over the last 18 months, battery costs are down like 40%, depending on sort of what analysis you look at. And at the system level, maybe like 30% is the right way to think about it. So the cost of, you know, an actual system that you deplo…”
Hade: Hyperscaler 'bring your own capacity' deals will surge within 48 months
“Definitely over the next like 36 to 48 months. My guess is bring your own capacity, right, which is sort of the umbrella term for everything I'm talking about is going to be a very, very, very quickly growing sector of this market, because when hyperscalers th…”
Hade: Islandable switchgear adds a 25% to 30% capital cost premium
“It's like a 25 to 30% premium to install the switchgear you need to be able to island.”
Hade: Microgrid ITC was only appropriated for two years, leaving one usable year
“The IRA included what's called the microgrid investment tax credit, which allowed the switch gear that is islandable to receive a 30% tax credit to sort of help bridge that gap. Unfortunately that was only appropriated for two years, and we still don't have th…”
Hade: Economic 24/7 commercial resilience currently requires fossil generation
“I think if you think about an economically viable way to provide commercial and industrial facilities with the type of resilience that most of them are looking for, you're using fossil gas or natural gas or freedom gas plus solar and storage or diesel or propa…”
Hade: 95% of C&I loads are sub-2MW, but soft costs prevent microgrids
“Ninety-five-ish percent of commercial and industrial loads are below two megawatts, right? But almost all the microgrids are built above two megawatts, and the reason for that is not technology cost, it's all soft cost, right?”
Hade: Grid interconnection queue wait times reach up to nine years
“If you want to build a utility scale battery in PJM today, and you submit your interconnection application to get in the queue, on average, you're waiting about six years right now. In Kaiso, you're waiting maybe nine years. In ERCOT, you're waiting maybe four…”
Hade: C&I battery installation costs will halve to $100/kWh in five years
“And then on the installation cost side of things, it's a little bit more difficult to predict, but I think we're probably looking at like having that over the next five years. So going from 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to a hundred dollars a kilowatt hour.”
Hade: Texas was 30 minutes from a multi-week blackout during Winter Storm Uri
“Texas, during Yuri almost lost power for probably multiple weeks and they were, I think, 30 minutes away from that happening.”
Hade: Standardized, off-the-shelf microgrid purchasing is probably a decade away
“I think that's the goal of everyone in the industry is to try to make it as easy to buy a microgrid as an air conditioning. I don't know, we're probably like a decade away from that”
Hade: US grid storage grew from under 2 GW to 40 GW
“I think going into twenty-twenty, there was less than two gigawatts of total storage on the U.S. Grid. As of twenty-twenty-five, that number is like 40 gigawatts.”
Hade: Much of US battery storage qualifies for 50% tax credits
“Which is, you get a 30% base ITC. If you have domestic content, you meet the domestic content requirements, you're still eligible for a 10% adder, and if you deploy that storage system in an energy community, you get an additional 10% adder on top of that. So …”
Hade: Most data centers globally use diesel generators for backup power
“Most data centers in the world today, those backup power generation devices are diesel generators, right? Increasingly, they're becoming natural gas generators, but for most data centers, they're diesel generators.”