The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Matthew: Constellation CEO says current power prices cannot support new gas plants
“If you look at the, like the last two earnings calls, right, you have the folks like the CEO of constellation talking about the fact that, you know, energy prices actually aren't supportive of building new gas plants, which may or may not be true.”
Matthew: AI capital expenditures have reached half a trillion dollars a year
“All the dollars that we're spending, you know, which is on the order of half a trillion dollars now a year”
Matthew: Top-tier lithium producers guided to negative free cash flow
“And if you look at a lot of what was said in this recent earnings season, a lot of the companies, so like a lot of the ones I just mentioned are what we'd call tier one producers. So they have the lowest cost assets in the world. So, you know, if anyone's maki…”
Matthew: EV tax credits will likely face political risk if presidency switches
“You don't need to look too much beyond public commentary to see that, like, EV tax credits will likely come under concern, and so that probably impacts anyone investing in the EV value chain.”
Matthew: EV 50% penetration forecasts have slipped from 2027–2028 to 2030+
“Where, you know, maybe 12 to 18 months ago, some folks had, you know, forecast that they were, had high conviction on that you could get 50% penetration by 27, 28, are now being pushed to, you know, maybe twenty-thirty or beyond, and that's largely as a result…”
Matthew: 2024 lithium supply growth of 30-40% is outpacing demand
“If we look at this year, I mentioned the growth outlooks for most reasonable market forecasters is 20%. Supply for lithium again for this year is supposed to be 30 to 40%. So we have supply that's outpacing the demand increases.”
Matthew: SolarEdge and Enphase customers hold 6-12 months of inventory
“If you look at something like the recent earnings calls from like a solar edge or an end phase, you know, in the recent quarters, they talked about six to 12 months of inventory that are sitting around at their customers warehouses.”
Matthew: SolarEdge quarterly revenue plummeted from nearly $1B to $300M
“If you look at something like a solar edge, they went from almost approaching a billion dollars in quarterly Revenue to three hundred million dollars in the most recent quarter”
Matthew: Nextracker trades at several multiples above Array due to execution
“You saw next tracker talk about a lot faster, top line growth and better execution that trades at, you know, a several multiples higher than let's say an array, which is talking about some project delays.”
Matthew: Amazon added 3.8 GW and Microsoft added 2 GW over 12 months
“Like Amazon brought on 3.8 gigawatts in the last 12 months. So they're going to double their footprint in the next two years. Microsoft said they're going to double as well. And they brought on two gigawatts in the last 12 months.”
Matthew: Europe holds 80% of $2T global ESG fund AUM
“If you look at like a big level, you know, like Morningstar was site, like two trillion dollars AUM in ESG type funds. And then, you know, the, like a bulk of that is largely in European capital markets, like 80% of that. And then in terms of like subsectors o…”
Matthew: Clean energy indices lagged S&P 500 by 40-50% over two years
“So when you look at like a multi-year basis, let's call it the last two years you know, the S and P 500, which is a not climate tech
indices, but a broadly used indices to assess market performance is up 23%.
When you look at something like the MAC Global Sol…”
Matthew: Global EV sales growth is slowing toward 20% in 2024
“2020 to 21, you saw like a hundred percent growth. 21, 2021 to 22, you saw a 64% growth. And this is the global growth rate for electric vehicles defined as battery electric vehicles and plug in hybrid vehicles. And then you saw 33% growth in this last year, a…”
Matthew: Lithium spot prices crashed from $80,000 to around $14,000
“In the period between twenty-twenty and twenty-twenty-two, you had prices skyrocket on the back of this accelerating EV adoption curve, where lithium prices went all the way up to 80,000 dollars per metric ton. Since then, they've crashed all the way back down…”