why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Grogan: First commercial seabed mineral recovery will occur around 2028
“I think probably around twenty-twenty-eight is, is a fair guess.”
Assertion Partly supported
Grogan: Clarion-Clipperton Zone holds more nickel than all land resources combined
“There's an area called the Clarion-Cliberton Zone. It's between Mexico and Hawaii. It has a estimated resource of nickel that is larger than the entire global terrestrial nickel resource. So more than you have in the entire global terrestrial environment in th…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Grogan: The ISA will pass deep sea exploitation regulations
“I think the ISA will pass its exploitation regulations. Whether they do that in July is, is a question that I can't answer. But I think there's, it will go ahead.”
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Seafloor massive sulfides can have 10x higher copper grades than land mines
“Now in something like sea floor massive sulfides, The grade can be 10 times as high as a typical terrestrial copper mine.”
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Nauru triggered a 2021 UN rule forcing deep-sea mining regulations
“So about two years ago, in July of 21 NARU, which is a sponsoring state of the metals company, which is a company, private company, or listed company that has exploration licenses, triggered what's known colloquially as the two-year rule. So it's a trigger und…”
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Cook Islands and New Zealand passed national deep-sea mining laws
“A couple of nations, the Cook Islands is one, New Zealand is another, have passed their own deep sea mining legislation. So they have legislation in place that allows for mining applications to be considered.”
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Selective seabed harvesting is proven in shallow water, unproven deep
“So that, that technology's in its infancy. It hasn't been tested in the deep ocean yet but it has been tested in shallow water and it does work.”