The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Johnson: Geologic hydrogen extraction costs should match natural gas extraction
“If you can find hydrogen under the ground, the reality is you should be able to produce it from a volumetric standpoint at a similar cost that we produce natural gas out of the ground.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 15:35 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Johnson: Natural hydrogen and biogenic CO2 can reach aviation fuel parity
“You could even take, you know, natural hydrogen produced at optimized prices, combine that with biogenic CO two, and you could make kerosene for sustainable aviation fuel pretty darn close to cost parity to the kerosene that just comes out of oil refinery.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 16:23 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Natural hydrogen fields require just 1-3 MWh input per ton
“Our best estimates for a natural hydrogen field is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of one to three megawatt hours of energy in to pull a ton of hydrogen out. So that's one to three megawatt hours of parasitic costs of, you know, running compressors and …”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 19:03 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Replacing methane power plants with hydrogen cuts emissions by 97%
“If we just said, okay, let's just assume you lose two percent methane, you lose two percent hydrogen. That means if I took that methane and I burned that in a power plant, or I took that hydrogen and I burned that in a power plant, and I'm losing the same amou…”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 24:28 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: USGS estimates geologic hydrogen resources could reach trillions of tons
“The USGS put out an estimate that this could be on the order of trillions of tons. You know, hundreds of years of energy.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 32:51 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Johnson: Mining companies understand geologic hydrogen source rocks best
“It's the mining companies that actually know the most about this type of hard rock that serves as a source rock for hydrogen.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 12:59 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Johnson: Industrial gas operators lose only 0.25% to 1% to leakage
“The best performers in industrial gas world, they lose about a quarter of a percent of their hydrogen from wellhead to customer delivery. The sort of the bottom quartile are around one percent.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 23:58 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Serpentinization is the primary mechanism generating underground hydrogen
“Most people believe serpentinization is the main way that hydrogen forms under the ground, and look, we have hydrogen seeps have, that have been found and detected all over the planet.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 5:47 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Substantial natural hydrogen seeps emerge in Iceland and the mid-Atlantic
“We have hydrogen seeping out of the ground in the mid-Atlantic rift in the ocean, and that comes to the surface at Iceland, and there's a lot of hydrogen coming out of the ground in Iceland, so, so nobody questions that this reaction is happening over and over…”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 6:01 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Green hydrogen electrolysis is at best roughly 60% energy efficient
“To electrolyze, to take renewable electricity and make a ton of hydrogen. Now that's totally green. You can do that carbon free. It's great in many ways, but you're going to put 50 to 55 megawatt hours of electricity into that system and pull out 33 megawatt h…”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 18:10 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: The United States already has 1,600 miles of hydrogen pipelines
“We've been moving hydrogen through pipelines in this country for decades. There's 1600 miles of hydrogen pipelines”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 22:16 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Hydrogen accounts for 75% of ammonia production costs
“I mean, if you look at the economics on almost all these, 75% of the cost of ammonia is hydrogen.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 30:49 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Partly supported
Johnson: A 1987 Mali well has produced high-purity hydrogen for decades
“There was a well drilled in 1987 in Mali, Africa, that was a water well that struck hydrogen and has been producing high purity hydrogen ever since. For, you know, for decades, and other wells have been drilled around that, and there, there's enough hydrogen p…”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 33:14 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Approximately 50 to 60 companies are exploring for geologic hydrogen
“There's 50 or 60 companies working in the space, and, you know, I think most of them are pretty early in the game.”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 36:45 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
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