The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Siegel: New large-scale gas power plants will not arrive before 2030
“Large scale gas is a 20, 30 plus new resource.”
Siegel: The cost to build combined-cycle gas plants doubled or tripled
“Two, we've gone through this, again, very short period where prices for building a new large generation resource went from, let's say, for a combined cycle 10 years ago, we could build a new combined cycle for
A little bit over a thousand dollars per KW.
And t…”
Siegel: ERCOT forward market pricing cannot support new gas generation
“There was a big push through legislation to support new gas fire generation and ERCOT. I think if you look at forward markets, that's not supported by market pricing today. It may be supported by bilateral contracting opportunities, but when you look purely at…”
Siegel: Battery saturation in ERCOT has compressed incremental investment returns
“A couple of years ago, we transitioned Intercut from a market that relies heavily on ancillary services to support batteries, and that was very robust. We built into that. That market was overwhelmed with supply, and then when you move out of the sort of small…”
Siegel: PJM capacity prices surged from $30 to over $300 per megawatt-day
“When we rewind back just a couple of years, we had capacity clears that were going off between 30 and 50 dollars per megawatt day, and that compares to a little bit over 300 dollars a megawatt day in the more recent clears and subject to the cap in the capacit…”
Siegel: Delivering large-scale gas generation takes four to five years
“And our planning horizons when it comes to large-scale gas-fire generation aren't measured in months. Today, I would say they're really measured over the course of four to five years between the realization that there's a need and all of the activities that ar…”
Siegel: PJM demand response participation stayed flat despite surging capacity prices
“So if you look at demand response and what's happened to demand response over the last several auctions we haven't had much more demand response participation in spite of the fact that the price signal has gone from virtually no payment for capacity to a very …”
Siegel predicts customer churn in demand response due to frequent dispatches
“So I anticipate that in that part of the market, the demand response piece, there's going to be customer churn. Some customers that said, we thought we were getting a payment, but you were never going to need us are going to say, we don't really want to partic…”
Siegel: Power market volatility will push large loads into long-term contracts
“Volatility itself, I think will encourage them to look at contracting to enter into longer term arrangements to mitigate their risk and to support ongoing construction development of the kind of resources that we're going to need to keep this market in equilib…”
Siegel: PJM saw virtually zero demand growth from 2008 until recent years
“We had a period of time between, let's say, 2008, the great financial crisis, and, ah, really the last year or two where there was virtually no demand growth in the PJM market.”
Siegel: LS Power upgrades existing gas turbines for faster capacity additions
“We're working on the conversion of some of our combustion turbines to combined cycle power plants that can be done more quickly than building something that's completely de novo.
We have a project where we can swap out combustion turbine blades and get dramati…”