The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Chinese sodium-ion prices will undercut LFP by 2030, Mossberg predicts
“From the quotes and what we're hearing from the suppliers, not just cells, but also materials, we see a really low-risk pathway to the crossover point on price with LFP coming somewhere between twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-thirty out of China.”
Landon Mossberg Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 12:15 The case for sodium-ion
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Waiting 4-5 years cedes sodium-ion economy of scale to China
“So if we wait for, Four or five years to get into this game, we're going to be in a similar place that we are today on LFP, but, ah, today at least, you're not facing such a huge, ah, economy of scale challenge.”
Landon Mossberg Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 20:48 The case for sodium-ion
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Mossberg: Sodium-ion cell prices will drop ~$20/kWh over next 2–3 years
“We can see pretty clearly for the next two years, because we have quotes from both from raw material suppliers and from cell suppliers that take the, you know, like the price is falling by about 20 dollars per kilowatt hour over the next two, two-ish years, tw…”
Landon Mossberg Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 26:44 The case for sodium-ion
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mossberg: Sodium-ion cells will remain ~$10/kWh more expensive than LFP in 2028
“I think we'll still be about a 10 dollar per kilowatt hour more expensive if you talk like 20, 28.”
Landon Mossberg Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 27:02 The case for sodium-ion
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