The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
EPA rule mandates 90% CCS or 96% hydrogen for large gas units
“The basics are the really big plants, meaning 300 megawatt nameplate units or larger, running at 50% capacity factor or more, need to meet a Standard equal to carbon, 90% carbon capture by 2035, or 96% hydrogen co-firing by 2038.”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 16:21 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Prediction Held up
Larson: EPA power plant rule faces immediate lawsuits and Supreme Court challenge
“And then as soon as that's in the federal register, then the lawsuits are going to start Flying. And they will presume they all, almost all will go to the D.C. Circuit, which will then eventually, you know, one, everybody expects something, some challenge on t…”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 32:02 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Prediction Held up
Larson: IRA will cut US power emissions to ~500M tons by mid-2030s
“With our IRA analysis, we see... Power sector CO two emissions dropping potentially quite a large amount, like from like the one and a half billion tons or so from last year. Down to maybe half a billion tons, even lower in some instances, depending on the eco…”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 46:15 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Supported
Larson: EPA power rule provides only incremental cuts beyond the IRA
“The EPA analysis of the rule suggests something, a similar outcome, basically, with only, like, a small increment of additional emission reductions From the proposal. So, it does show that, yes, you were actually getting some incremental gain above and beyond …”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 46:42 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Contradicted
Larson: Coal plant retirement announcements increase year over year
“Every year more coal operators announce more retirements than they did the year before, right? And if we see that trend continue or accelerate in response to this regulation, I think that's going to be another important place to watch”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 53:00 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Supported
Larson: Zero new coal power plants have been proposed in US
“Not even not building a lot, not building any, period. Like, there are, there have not been any proposed coal plants even before that proposed rule went in place.”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 15:19 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Supported
Larson: About 200 gigawatts of coal power operate on the US grid
“And there's, you know, about 200 megawatts Sorry, gigawatts of coal currently on the system today, all of which would be subject to new standards under this proposal”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 21:33 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Supported
Larson: At least 70 gigawatts of US coal capacity will retire before 2032
“When we look at this every year as part of our baseline construction for U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions, and at least 70 gigawatts is scheduled to leave the market between now and then, from our account.”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 22:24 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Supported
Larson: EPA intends to finalize power plant rule by summer 2024
“Yeah, I mean, the EPA is signaling that they intend to finalize this by summer of next year, right?”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 39:21 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Supported
Larson: US combined cycle gas plant average capacity factor is 55%
“The average capacity factor of combined cycle unit today is 55%. National average.”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 44:19 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
Assertion Supported
Larson: Power plants already announced carbon capture projects post-IRA
“I mean, there's already been a handful since the IRA got passed because 45 Q is helpful. They're the carbon capture tax credit. And I think you could see more.”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 51:56 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
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