John Larson of Rhodium Group explains how much U.S. coal power is already slated for retirement before the EPA's 2032 compliance deadline.
Assertion Supported
EPA rule mandates 90% CCS or 96% hydrogen for large gas units
“The basics are the really big plants, meaning 300 megawatt nameplate units or larger, running at 50% capacity factor or more, need to meet a Standard equal to carbon, 90% carbon capture by 2035, or 96% hydrogen co-firing by 2038.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035
Larson expects gas plant capacity factors to plummet by the mid-2030s
“We see that going down into, like, the twenties. Because wind and solar are coming on at such huge volumes in their variables. So you're running these gas plants in a much different way by the mid-twenty-thirties.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Larson: Most gas plants will reduce capacity factors instead of installing CCS
“Most of the gas is just going to ramp down instead of installing carbon capture.”
Opinion
Larson: EPA power plant rule poses very low risk to grid reliability
“Just the fact that peakers and you know, load following combined cycle units aren't touched at all says to me that that, that should be a very, very low concern, right, from a reliability perspective, because you've, all the stuff you're using to balance on th…”
Prediction Held up
Larson: EPA power plant rule faces immediate lawsuits and Supreme Court challenge
“And then as soon as that's in the federal register, then the lawsuits are going to start Flying. And they will presume they all, almost all will go to the D.C. Circuit, which will then eventually, you know, one, everybody expects something, some challenge on t…”
Opinion
Larson: Inflation Reduction Act tax credits are politically durable
“Like, you know, those rules are in place, those reg sorry, incentives are in there for 10 years, and although Congress has tried to repeal them, they're pretty, you know, politically durable.”