The Ledger
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EPA rule mandates 90% CCS or 96% hydrogen for large gas units
“The basics are the really big plants, meaning 300 megawatt nameplate units or larger, running at 50% capacity factor or more, need to meet a Standard equal to carbon, 90% carbon capture by 2035, or 96% hydrogen co-firing by 2038.”
Larson expects gas plant capacity factors to plummet by the mid-2030s
“We see that going down into, like, the twenties. Because wind and solar are coming on at such huge volumes in their variables. So you're running these gas plants in a much different way by the mid-twenty-thirties.”
Larson: Most gas plants will reduce capacity factors instead of installing CCS
“Most of the gas is just going to ramp down instead of installing carbon capture.”
Larson: EPA power plant rule faces immediate lawsuits and Supreme Court challenge
“And then as soon as that's in the federal register, then the lawsuits are going to start Flying. And they will presume they all, almost all will go to the D.C. Circuit, which will then eventually, you know, one, everybody expects something, some challenge on t…”
Larson: State EPA Off-Ramps Will Impact Gas Plants More Than Coal
“I think probably more for gas than for coal. I mean, coal's on its way out. You know, I mean, and there might be a handful of plants that end up getting tied up into the scenario you just described, but compared to existing gas plants, it's a relatively small …”
Larson: IRA will cut US power emissions to ~500M tons by mid-2030s
“With our IRA analysis, we see... Power sector CO two emissions dropping potentially quite a large amount, like from like the one and a half billion tons or so from last year. Down to maybe half a billion tons, even lower in some instances, depending on the eco…”
Larson: EPA power rule provides only incremental cuts beyond the IRA
“The EPA analysis of the rule suggests something, a similar outcome, basically, with only, like, a small increment of additional emission reductions From the proposal. So, it does show that, yes, you were actually getting some incremental gain above and beyond …”
Larson: Coal plant retirement announcements increase year over year
“Every year more coal operators announce more retirements than they did the year before, right? And if we see that trend continue or accelerate in response to this regulation, I think that's going to be another important place to watch”
Larson: Zero new coal power plants have been proposed in US
“Not even not building a lot, not building any, period. Like, there are, there have not been any proposed coal plants even before that proposed rule went in place.”
Larson: About 200 gigawatts of coal power operate on the US grid
“And there's, you know, about 200 megawatts Sorry, gigawatts of coal currently on the system today, all of which would be subject to new standards under this proposal”
Larson: At least 70 gigawatts of US coal capacity will retire before 2032
“When we look at this every year as part of our baseline construction for U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions, and at least 70 gigawatts is scheduled to leave the market between now and then, from our account.”
Larson: EPA intends to finalize power plant rule by summer 2024
“Yeah, I mean, the EPA is signaling that they intend to finalize this by summer of next year, right?”