The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Frith: Lowest battery spot prices will rise while average prices continue falling
“I think, you know, unfortunately, we're probably going to see prices increasing, you know, moderately in, in the next kind of year or so, I would say, or kind of, let's say two years out, we'll probably see higher prices than we're at today. But I don't think,…”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 15:14 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Assertion Supported
Frith: Normalized US LFP cell production is 8% costlier than China
“For a LFP cell produced in China, 35 gigawatt hour facility you're looking at around kind of 68 dollars per kilowatt hour. So this isn't kind of optimized for these super low prices that we we're seeing today, but Assumes a kind of LFP material costs of about …”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 25:54 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Assertion Supported
Frith: Northvolt's yield struggles inflated costs and lost BMW's contract
“Northvolt started manufacturing cells on its plant around the end of twenty-twenty-two, I believe. So, kind of, we're coming up to two years now. And if the, you know, media reports are to be believed, they're still having a huge issue with yields. They can't …”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 30:18 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Assertion Supported
Frith: Chinese LFP battery cell prices have fallen to $50/kWh
“We've got LFP prices from China down at kind of 50 bucks per kilowatt hour, which is... That, that's at the sell level, yeah. Exactly, that's at the sell level.”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 4:27 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Assertion Supported
Frith: Chinese turnkey energy storage systems now cost $135/kWh
“At a system level, kind of for a turnkey system, you're looking at something like a 135 dollars per kilowatt hour. So again, kind of crazy low considering that 18 months ago, the average price of a cell was about 135 dollars per kilowatt hour.”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 6:46 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Assertion Supported
Frith: Chinese battery makers are liquidating expensive stockpiles
“And that's that a lot of the companies in China and the supply chain, cell manufacturers, and material providers had stockpiled material over the last couple of years, particularly when raw material prices were very high. And so they then have that material si…”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 10:12 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Prediction Held up
Frith: Silicon anodes will eventually beat graphite on cost
“Over the next few years, we're going to see the increasing kind of adoption of silicon materials. And again, some silicon materials, not all, but some silicon materials will give you a Cost advantage over graphite. So on a per kilowatt hour basis, you'll have …”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 17:49 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Assertion Supported
Frith: Raw materials constitute 70% of LFP battery cell costs
“The operational costs account for somewhere around, kind of, 20% of the total cost of a cell. You've then got roughly 10%, which is, is related to the, kind of, capex, so equipment and plant capex, and then the rest of what you're looking at, kind of, 70% or s…”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 25:18 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
Assertion Supported
Frith: Lithium prices have dropped below $20,000 per metric ton
“So we've got lithium kind of, not at an all-time low, but, you know, very depressed, below kind of 20,000 dollars per metric ton.”
James Frith Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 9:52 Unpacking China’s cheap battery costs
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