why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Hsu predicts someone will achieve fusion scientific breakeven during the 2020s
“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”
Assertion Supported
Hsu: A single train car of fusion fuel could power the US
“Yeah, so the example I like to look at is one train car of fusion fuel, and that's like a little over a hundred tons. Imagine a train car of coal, for example, But if it was a train car of deuterium, tritium fuel that would provide enough energy for the U.S.'s…”
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Nuclear fusion produces no fissile material and needs no geological storage
“There is some waste, but it's short-lived waste, radioactive waste and there's no fissile fuel, which is another concern. But for sure, you also don't need geological storage of the waste.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hsu predicts the ITER fusion project will achieve first plasma by 2026
“First plasma on Eater is expected in, hopefully, within a few years, twenty-twenty-five, twenty-twenty-six timeframe.”
Assertion Supported
Hsu: NIF's 2021 record shot achieved 70 percent fusion energy output
“Many people probably have heard of the record shot on the National Ignition Facility just earlier this year. And surprising, well not surprisingly, coincidentally, it also achieved about 70% compared to the laser energy. So it produced fusion energy about 70% …”
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Fusion triple product grew five orders of magnitude across twenty years
“From the Seventies until the nineties, 20 years that triple product metric increased by five orders of magnitude, and people like to compare that with Moore's law as an example”
Assertion Supported
Hsu: The UK's JET tokamak achieved 70 percent instantaneous fusion power
“The record is held by the JET device in the UK, which is, has achieved about 70%, but I think it's important to, again, clearly define that this is the fusion, instantaneous fusion power is, has been about 70% of the heating power at that moment.”
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Capital costs will drive 65 percent of fusion's levelized electricity cost
“In fact, the particular ARPA-E funded study showed that maybe 65% of the LCOE might be coming from capital cost.”