The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
At least three or four advanced nuclear reactor developers will succeed
“I'm very comfortable that, there's going to be, you know, probably three or four at least that are going to make it through that part of it that will be successful in the long term.”
Light water reactors deploy in early 2030s; non-light water in late 2030s
“The early thirties is the light water reactors, and the late thirties is when we'll see commercially more of the non-light water reactors coming to fore.”
Nuclear plant development timelines will fall from eight to five years
“I do see a path by which you get down to, from the seven to eight years, we're looking at the first ones, to getting down to five or six years, which to me really makes a game changer when people have their planning horizons.”
Mature SMR capital costs will reach $10,000 per kilowatt
“Once you get down the curve, we're probably, you know, 10,000 dollars a kilowatt, so if you have a 600 megawatt plant, that'd be about six billion dollars. The first one might be, you know, 15, 20% more than that.”
Nuclear development costs hundreds of millions upfront, far exceeding renewable projects
“Unlike renewables, where the development cost might be in the tens of millions of dollars at most It's hundreds of millions of dollars for nuclear, and you can't just have a power purchase agreement to make that kind of investment as a developer.”
NRC nuclear application review timelines have dropped from four to two years
“That has been demonstrated by reduced timelines for them to review various applications I've observed just in the 15 years I've been in the nuclear space where, you know, what once took four years is now being done in two years.”
Elemental Power expects its first nuclear plant to operate by 2032
“26 to 28, we're doing a construction permit. You know, 29, we start construction, and by 32, 33, we're operating the plant.”
Former US coal and industrial sites have sufficient transmission for new nuclear
“In the U.S., we have a pretty robust system where any former coal plant or any former large industrial site We'll typically have the transmission infrastructure necessary for it.”
Plant Vogtle Unit 4 cost 40% less to construct than Unit 3
“You know, unit four, I think, was 40% less than unit three.”