The Ledger
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Quantum advantage over classical systems is three to four years away
“As quantum computing capability follows the trajectory that most people believe it's on, we're about three to four years away from the rolling out of systems that will be able to have performance gains that will lead any scientist or engineer or researcher to …”
Quantum algorithms are a bigger ten-year hurdle than hardware
“The algorithmic issue right now is probably the greater hill to climb in terms of general applicability of quantum systems in the next decade.”
Seventy quantum hardware startups could fail without hurting sector vitality
“There are too many organizations out there, and I can confidently say 70 of them could go belly up in the next two years, and it ultimately wouldn't affect the overall vitality of the sector, because the smart ones will rise to the top, and the ones that perha…”
Current quantum benchmark claims rely on tests with no practical relevance
“A lot of organizations right now that are hoped to aspire to be, you know, significant quantum computing vendors are coming out with benchmark claims that in some sense are interesting, but somewhat confusing, and organizations will say, we have solved an inte…”
Early quantum benchmarks like boson sampling were terribly misleading
“Ok, there's no practical application for those kinds of things. So what you end up getting Are, in some cases, in the early days benchmarks that sounded interesting but were terribly misleading.”
Quantum algorithm development is underfunded by both government and academia
“The algorithm development phase of this is really quite complicated and slow, and unfortunately, to my mind, underfunded from both government and academic environments.”
Quantum roadmaps target million-qubit systems within three to five years
“So right now the holy grail, if you will, of quantum is say a million physical qubits to implement perhaps thousands of logical qubits. And that's where you start to get real science and real applications. And if you look at all the company roadmaps, that is t…”
Quantum qubit scaling follows a near-exponential trajectory
“So if you look at What's happening in the sector, it is not a linear progression. In many cases, it is a near exponential kind of capability. So this idea of moving from 10 to a hundred to a thousand cubits is, it's going to happen faster than if you were just…”
Rolls-Royce found quantum fluid dynamics outperformed theoretical predictions
“Rolls-Royce, who makes very good jet engines, are starting to examine what they can do for their computational fluid dynamics programs, what quantum can bring to the table. It was interesting. They got some cool results, but what I really liked about their exp…”
Quantum computing offers scientific explainability and reproducibility currently lacking in AI
“It, it's, it, a large language model and its training and inference phases are completely opaque. You can't say, why did you give me this solution versus this one? And if I just change a variable slightly, what will be the outcome? Non-reproducible results, no…”
Quantum provides massive performance gains for a narrow set of applications
“The key to quantum is incredible performance gains on a narrow class of applications, but some of those applications are really critical to a lot of industrial sectors, commercial sectors, and governments, and just about everybody, so it's more of an accelerat…”
Quantum computers have not yet demonstrated dramatic performance gains over classical systems
“From a performance perspective, they haven't demonstrated what we would call you know dramatic performance gains over classical counterparts. It's still in the phase where some people would call them toy problems.”
Error correction remains quantum computing's most pernicious challenge
“And so this issue of error correction in quantum systems is, is probably the most pernicious aspect facing the industry today.”
Quantum optimization does not need perfection to create commercial value
“Optimization doesn't have to be perfect to be good. The traveling salesman problem would be a great example. If I can reduce how far that traveling salesman has to go by a little bit, On a quantum system. It may not be the best answer. It may not be the absolu…”
Quantum simulates materials directly from physics without requiring large training datasets
“Quantum is much more science-based in some sense. It doesn't require a huge corpus of information to reach its conclusions. It's based more on the physics and the science of what it means to how a material interacts. So without data, AI is basically just Kind …”
Leading scientific supercomputers cost up to $700M plus $300M in power
“Some of the most expensive HPCs right now doing science and engineering work are costing six to seven hundred million dollars a pop. And they require perhaps two to three hundred million dollars of electricity to run over a five year period.”