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Johnson: Tax equity market reached $36B in 2025 via hybrid transactions
“So the tax equity market grew from about twenty billion in 2022 to about thirty six billion this past year, which is a really material growth with most of it coming from hybrid transactions that allow for the subsequent sale of the tax credit.”
Johnson: 90% of tax credit projects sit in Republican-held congressional districts
“People are looking at 90% of projects with, that are benefiting from the credits being in districts that are represented by Republicans.”
170 new manufacturing facilities will bring large volumes of 45X tax credits
“There's also so much 45 X coming, so there were something like a 170 investments that have been announced in manufacturing and mining facilities of various kinds across 37 states totaling billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars, and so that means …”
Alfred Johnson: Transferable tax credits average 92-94 cents, beating LIHTC pricing
“The average credit price that we found in the sample was 92 to 94 cents, and this is better average pricing than we see currently in the thirty-seven-year-old Lytec market”
Johnson: 2023 clean energy tax credit transactions will reach $7B-$9B
“If you trust our numbers, then it's something like seven to nine billion that will transact, but it's capped. And there was more demand than supply. There is still more demand than supply on those 23 credits.”
Johnson: Annual clean energy tax credit market will reach $100B by 2030
“And in the world where we're at a hundred billion dollar a year Annual tax credit market that is, you know, five years, six years advanced from where we sit today. I think that market will be a lot more standardized. I think technology will sit at the center o…”
Johnson: Clean energy financing reached $200B on $120B CapEx in 2025
“When I tell you that the CapEx number, so the total investment in these projects, was a hundred and twenty billion in twenty-twenty-five, the total financing number is actually north of 200, because some amount of the capital that came in later takes out earli…”
Johnson: Transferable tax credit market hit $42B in 2025, up from $9B
“In that first year, twenty-twenty-three was about a nine billion dollar market. The market in twenty-twenty-five for direct transfers was a forty-two billion dollar market.”
Johnson: Fortune 1000 participation in tax credits grew from 50 to 250
“In the first year, twenty-twenty-three, if you're looking at the Fortune 1000, about 50 participated in the market. That number is now 250, right?”
Johnson: Battery Storage Deployments Grew About 72% from 2024 to 2025
“I think the growth in terms of deployed gigawatts from 24 to 25 was about a 72% improvement or growth rate.”
Johnson: Post-election tax credit bidding activity reached record highs on Crux
“In the weeks following the November election, bidding activity was the highest we have seen yet. We saw really strong liquidity and demand to supply coverage in the market.”
Johnson: First Solar tax credit deal hit high watermark at 96 cents
“The high end of the market Is 94 to 96 cents, and we've seen some very large transactions like the first solar Fiserv deal that priced at 96 cents on 45 X credits, and as far as I know, that is the high watermark in the market or around 96 cents.”
Johnson: Sub-$50M deals represent the majority of transferable tax credit market
“We found in our data set that smaller deals, so fifty million and below, Represented the majority of deals in the data set.”
Johnson: Pending R&D tax bill could reduce demand for clean energy credits
“This new tax bill that is winding its way through Congress and appears likely to pass has pretty extensive tax credits for R&D to the extent that that is passed and buyers can take benefit of those new retroactive R&D credits that limits demand that could be o…”
Johnson: Clean energy tax credit mega-deals transact at 94 to 96 cents
“The mega deals, call it the hundred million dollar plus kinds of deals, are transacting at 94, 95, 96 cents, and the trend of size impacting price is true across credit types.”
Johnson: Clean energy finance sees rise of hybrid tax equity structures
“We are seeing an increasing amount of so-called hybrid deals where a tax equity partnership is formed, and then credits are sold
Out of that partnership.”
Johnson: 2024 transferable tax credit market may see pricing reset
“So I think you're gonna see supply and demand adjust over the course of the year, and you may see a bit of a reset on pricing as we go into a more of a larger market from the one that was in twenty-twenty-three.”
Alfred Johnson: Tax credit buyers prefer familiar technologies like wind and solar
“And though we're seeing some convergence, there is, we are seeing some sign that buyers are more comfortable with the existing technologies that That they have seen in the past, like wind and solar, than they may be with some of the new technology types”
Johnson: U.S. energy demand is rising for first time in two decades
“Energy demand is rising for the first time in two decades.”
Johnson compares $200B clean energy market to U.S. Interstate Highway System
“A two hundred billion dollar market Is roughly a third of the entire cost inflation adjusted of the interstate highway system. It is roughly a quarter of what was invested as part of the Recovery Act, right? So these are very large markets that have matured pr…”
Johnson: Clean energy tax credit market diversified beyond 76% wind and solar
“About 76% of the market was solar and wind when we first got going. It is now significantly diversified Into advanced manufacturing, clean fuels, minerals, nuclear, battery storage, which is booming as a category and making up a much larger share of the tax cr…”
Crux CEO: Tax credit transfer deal pricing improved across 2024
“Two, pricing on tax credit deals remains strong. We saw it improve from 23 to 24, and it improved from the first half to the second half of 24.”
Smaller tax credits comprise over half of deals, seeing largest price gains
“Three, smaller credits, which make up more than 50% Of the deal sample saw the greatest improvement in pricing as a result of more competition in the market and more buyers that are coming into the market and looking to participate in it.”
Johnson: US energy demand is rising for first time in two decades
“All of that is contributing to energy demand that is increasing for the first time in two decades. And that's a really material impact to the market, where we are going from a reality where demand was pretty stable since the financial crisis to a world where d…”
Johnson: 95% of US interconnection queue is clean energy
“About 95% of the current interconnection queue is associated with clean energy of various kinds.”
Alfred Johnson: Section 45X credits were second most common deal type
“We found that 45 X was the second most broadly characterized or considered kind of transaction within the data set. And to be clear, 45 X's advanced manufacturing credits”
Johnson: Most traditional tax equity capital comes from 10 large banks
“When you consider the baseline of traditional tax equity, the most of that capital is coming from 10 institutions, 10 of the largest banks.”
Johnson: Sub-$10M clean energy tax credits drop to 87-89 cents
“So at the smallest end of the market, the sub 20, sub ten million dollar Kind of credit sizes. Pricing does fall off a cliff. Like it gets a lot worse, but it goes down to 89, 88, 87 cents on a gross basis.”
Johnson: 37% of bid-receiving tax credits on Crux get multiple bids
“So we found that credits that are listed on Crux in 37% of cases where a credit received a bid, they received multiple bids.”
Johnson: Traditional tax equity was only economically viable above $50M to $100M
“So traditional tax equity tended to be transactions that, 50 or a hundred million dollars or above. It just really didn't make sense to go through the legal work necessary and the transaction structuring to do tax equity deals at less than those amounts.”