The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 148 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 148 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Jaffe: US will reach nearly 300 GWh of battery manufacturing
“The U.S. Will, in the next few years, have close to 300 gigawatt hours.”
Sam Jaffe Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 32:42 What went wrong at Northvolt?
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Lacey: 27% of US geologists will retire by 2029
“By 2030, the U.S. Will face a labor gap of a 130,000 full-time employees in this profession. Roughly 27% of the existing workforce in the U.S. Will be retiring by twenty-twenty-nine, and there aren't enough people to take their places.”
Stephen Lacey May 8, 2024 ▶ 35:48 The news quiz episode!
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Rivest: Energy consumption from cooling will at least triple by 2050
“It depends upon how other sectors grow, but we know that cooling will at least triple in energy consumption between now and twenty-fifty.”
Jesse Rivest Mar 3, 2022 ▶ 7:02 Unlocking hyper-efficient cooling
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Lubershain: Electricity accounts for 1% to 1.5% of average personal income
“The average consumer, it's been between one and 1.5% of average personal income over that period and declining a little bit over that period since 2010, ah, so far.”
Andy Lubershane Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 32:23 Do data centers actually increase electricity prices? No...and yes
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