why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Microsoft has dropped to fourth in hyperscaler energy sophistication
“I don't think I wouldn't call Microsoft now the second. I probably would rank them fourth now. I think you've seen Amazon step up pretty dramatically, and you've seen them at the frontier of a bunch of, you know, unique type of deals.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Klauber: Microsoft cannot hit 2030 net-zero targets without book and claim
“Even if there's tremendous uptake, a company like Microsoft who wants to get to net zero by 2030 simply will not be able to do this without Book and Claim.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Janus: Hyperscaler climate targets are probably not achievable on time
“And so there is, I think at this point, a point of coming to grips with the fact that those targets are probably not achievable in the time horizons that they had all set.”
Opinion
Ransohoff: Carbon removal sector remains far off track to dent climate crisis
“I would say generally this field is not currently on track for carbon removal to make a material dense in the climate crisis. Like, even with the recent progress, even with all these companies that we're finding and funding and all the press and, you know, Str…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eliahu-Ontiveros: OpenAI and Anthropic drive half of Amazon and Microsoft buildout
“Increasingly, you basically look at Amazon or Microsoft, how many gigawatts they're building every quarter? Half of that is going to either both of them combined, right? Open AI and Anthropic.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
States use tech hyperscalers' ratepayer pledge to fight transmission tariffs
“In their complaints to FERC, for example, a bunch of states have cited that pledge, and I think that creates it's an opening for any time anyone wants to argue against however a tariff is getting structured, or a new transmission line, or whatever it might be …”
Assertion Supported
Kann: Microsoft and Frontier dominate virtually all carbon removal purchases
“If you just look at, like, overall
Tons purchased in the CDR market.
It's basically Microsoft, followed by, like, an order of magnitude lower frontier, which is the Stripe Coalition, followed by a bunch of little minnows, you know, in, in relative terms.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Apley: Very few carbon removal intermediaries can sign offtakes beyond 2030
“A lot of the intermediaries today in the market, they don't have the balance sheet of a Microsoft or JP Morgan. So, so not all of them are really credit worthy of worthy off takers over a period of 1015 years. And many of them come from an environment where th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Major tech companies will achieve true zero-carbon power without using offsets
“So there is a future In my opinion, for those companies to get to not just net zero on a on a basis of using offsets or other things, but actually truly having zero carbon power”
Assertion Partly supported
Janous: Data centers spurred massive civic investment and job gains in Quincy
“There was a fantastic story just in the last week about Quincy Washington building a fifteen million dollar aquatic center and they have a hundred and fifty million dollar state of the art school and their unemployment rate has gone from like 29% to six percen…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
One utility reported employees gaining an extra day of productivity weekly
“I have a customer that did a report where they found that after just a few weeks of usage, each employee had a or achieve a day more for activity every week.”
Disclosure
Constellation uses Microsoft product to enable hourly green electricity matching
“Another customer where we have a tight partnership is Constellation. And with Constellation, we have a project called 24 Seven Matching, which is actually not a project, it's a product. And with that Constellation is able to tag its green electricity hourly, w…”
Insight
Electric utilities resist early AI adoption by aiming to be fast followers
“So utilities show some resistance. Often one of the difficulties we have is that our customers want to be fast followers. And in order to be fast followers, you need to follow someone. So someone has to go first. That's definitely an issue in this sector in pa…”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft research reveals 40% increase in state-sponsored critical infrastructure cyberattacks
“Our own research here at Microsoft shows that we've seen a 40% increase in state-sponsored attacks on critical infrastructure, and the energy sector is high on that list.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Quantum encryption could become standard data protection within a few years
“So in a few years, quantum encryption could be the standard for protecting data, you know, taking security beyond anything our current systems could really handle.”
Disclosure
Sublime Systems will sell cement environmental attributes to Microsoft
“So we, you know, work with Microsoft. That's one of you know, the announcements that Sublime made recently is an MOU signed with Microsoft and to buy the environmental attributes of some of our cement.”
Assertion Contradicted
Belady: Microsoft's 2016 Cheyenne grid-interactive power model was never duplicated
“That was in 2016 that was done. It's almost a decade later, and I don't think it's ever been duplicated.”
Assertion Supported
Janus: Microsoft's energy demand grew from hundreds of megawatts to gigawatts
“Over that decade, we had gone from a baseline of, you know, a couple hundred megawatts, and we were growing at a relatively rapid pace, but that's also kind of a small denominator. So the incremental tranches every year that we had to go procure were measured …”
Assertion Supported
Shayle Kann says Frontier, Microsoft, and Shopify dominate durable carbon removal
“Though there is a growing buyer pool, it's really still predominantly dominated by a small number of companies that are procuring in part, not just for their own benefit, but trying to foster an ecosystem and support the development of the industry, right? So …”
Assertion Supported
McAvoy: Meta, Oracle, and Microsoft are building in-house energy teams
“And especially, like, you know, even the likes of, like, Meta and, you know, you have your Oracles of the World and your Microsofts and, you know, everyone else who are trying to build, build, build, build these out. They're investing even in their own teams. …”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Matthew: Amazon added 3.8 GW and Microsoft added 2 GW over 12 months
“Like Amazon brought on 3.8 gigawatts in the last 12 months. So they're going to double their footprint in the next two years. Microsoft said they're going to double as well. And they brought on two gigawatts in the last 12 months.”
Disclosure
Terra Praxis uses AI to identify coal sites for nuclear repowering
“We have a partnership with a, with an NGO called Terra Praxis. And with Terra Praxis, we are identifying coal power sites for repowering to nuclear and SMR, so small modular reactors.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft AI screened 32 million battery electrolyte candidates down to 100
“What you're referring to is a project where AI was leveraged by our research teams to screen over thirty-two million candidates for a new electrolyte for advanced batteries. Thanks to AI inference, you know, the R&D scientists were able to go from that number …”
Disclosure
Cybersecurity will become fully decentralized for edge and IoT devices
“And lastly, and what we're seeing is a future where cybersecurity becomes fully decentralized, you know, with the expansion of IOT and edge computing, Microsoft's vision is a world where every connected device has its own layer of protection, you know, kind of…”
Assertion Supported
Lubershane: Microsoft is by far the largest carbon removal buyer
“Microsoft has a really strong internal team doing that too. And they're the single single largest carbon removal buyer at this point by, I think quite a margin.”
Assertion Supported
Belady: Microsoft Implemented Data Center Designs Boosting Pollinator Habitats
“And to Microsoft's credit, we did implement this where the data centers are being looked at to try to see how can we change the design so that we increase pollinators and habitat for pollinators so the fields around it get, have healthier yield”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft disclosed overall emissions rose 30% since setting climate commitment
“Microsoft announced that despite all their best efforts, they're Overall emissions have gone up 30% since making initial commitment.”
Assertion Supported
Kann: Stripe publishes all carbon removal applications, pricing, and contracts
“Stripe, which has been leading the charge alongside, I would say, Microsoft and Shopify, publishes all the applications it receives, along with the details of what it's selected, The prices and the contracts.”