The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Microsoft has dropped to fourth in hyperscaler energy sophistication
“I don't think I wouldn't call Microsoft now the second. I probably would rank them fourth now. I think you've seen Amazon step up pretty dramatically, and you've seen them at the frontier of a bunch of, you know, unique type of deals.”
Jeremy Eliahu-Ontiveros Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 8:44 Inside the AI power wars
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Klauber: Microsoft cannot hit 2030 net-zero targets without book and claim
“Even if there's tremendous uptake, a company like Microsoft who wants to get to net zero by 2030 simply will not be able to do this without Book and Claim.”
Adam Klauber Dec 19, 2024 ▶ 35:26 Scaling low-carbon products with book and claim systems
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Janus: Hyperscaler climate targets are probably not achievable on time
“And so there is, I think at this point, a point of coming to grips with the fact that those targets are probably not achievable in the time horizons that they had all set.”
Brian Janous Jun 13, 2024 ▶ 37:59 Under the hood of data center power demand
Opinion
Ransohoff: Carbon removal sector remains far off track to dent climate crisis
“I would say generally this field is not currently on track for carbon removal to make a material dense in the climate crisis. Like, even with the recent progress, even with all these companies that we're finding and funding and all the press and, you know, Str…”
Nan Ransohoff Nov 18, 2021 ▶ 19:39 Kickstarting a $1 trillion market for carbon removal
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eliahu-Ontiveros: OpenAI and Anthropic drive half of Amazon and Microsoft buildout
“Increasingly, you basically look at Amazon or Microsoft, how many gigawatts they're building every quarter? Half of that is going to either both of them combined, right? Open AI and Anthropic.”
Jeremy Eliahu-Ontiveros Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 11:56 Inside the AI power wars
Prediction Not checkable as stated
States use tech hyperscalers' ratepayer pledge to fight transmission tariffs
“In their complaints to FERC, for example, a bunch of states have cited that pledge, and I think that creates it's an opening for any time anyone wants to argue against however a tariff is getting structured, or a new transmission line, or whatever it might be …”
Shayle Kann Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 24:15 How data centers are complicating transmission expansion
Assertion Supported
Kann: Microsoft and Frontier dominate virtually all carbon removal purchases
“If you just look at, like, overall Tons purchased in the CDR market. It's basically Microsoft, followed by, like, an order of magnitude lower frontier, which is the Stripe Coalition, followed by a bunch of little minnows, you know, in, in relative terms.”
Shayle Kann Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 28:18 Ag residue and carbon removal
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Apley: Very few carbon removal intermediaries can sign offtakes beyond 2030
“A lot of the intermediaries today in the market, they don't have the balance sheet of a Microsoft or JP Morgan. So, so not all of them are really credit worthy of worthy off takers over a period of 1015 years. And many of them come from an environment where th…”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 32:51 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Major tech companies will achieve true zero-carbon power without using offsets
“So there is a future In my opinion, for those companies to get to not just net zero on a on a basis of using offsets or other things, but actually truly having zero carbon power”
Mark Cupta Dec 16, 2021 ▶ 22:40 Quantum computing could be a critical climate solution
Assertion Partly supported
Janous: Data centers spurred massive civic investment and job gains in Quincy
“There was a fantastic story just in the last week about Quincy Washington building a fifteen million dollar aquatic center and they have a hundred and fifty million dollar state of the art school and their unemployment rate has gone from like 29% to six percen…”
Brian Janous Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 5:45 What comes after the data center backlash?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
One utility reported employees gaining an extra day of productivity weekly
“I have a customer that did a report where they found that after just a few weeks of usage, each employee had a or achieve a day more for activity every week.”
Laurent Bueneau Mar 11, 2025 ▶ 12:52 How AI is solving real utility challenges [partner content]
Disclosure
Constellation uses Microsoft product to enable hourly green electricity matching
“Another customer where we have a tight partnership is Constellation. And with Constellation, we have a project called 24 Seven Matching, which is actually not a project, it's a product. And with that Constellation is able to tag its green electricity hourly, w…”
Laurent Bueneau Mar 11, 2025 ▶ 9:41 How AI is solving real utility challenges [partner content]
Insight
Electric utilities resist early AI adoption by aiming to be fast followers
“So utilities show some resistance. Often one of the difficulties we have is that our customers want to be fast followers. And in order to be fast followers, you need to follow someone. So someone has to go first. That's definitely an issue in this sector in pa…”
Laurent Bueneau Mar 11, 2025 ▶ 2:37 How AI is solving real utility challenges [partner content]
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft research reveals 40% increase in state-sponsored critical infrastructure cyberattacks
“Our own research here at Microsoft shows that we've seen a 40% increase in state-sponsored attacks on critical infrastructure, and the energy sector is high on that list.”
Bilal Khashid Dec 10, 2024 ▶ 5:01 How cyber attacks could threaten the energy transition [partner content]
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Quantum encryption could become standard data protection within a few years
“So in a few years, quantum encryption could be the standard for protecting data, you know, taking security beyond anything our current systems could really handle.”
Bilal Khashid Dec 10, 2024 ▶ 19:54 How cyber attacks could threaten the energy transition [partner content]
Disclosure
Sublime Systems will sell cement environmental attributes to Microsoft
“So we, you know, work with Microsoft. That's one of you know, the announcements that Sublime made recently is an MOU signed with Microsoft and to buy the environmental attributes of some of our cement.”
Leah Ellis Oct 17, 2024 ▶ 13:07 The complex path to market for low-carbon cement
Assertion Contradicted
Belady: Microsoft's 2016 Cheyenne grid-interactive power model was never duplicated
“That was in 2016 that was done. It's almost a decade later, and I don't think it's ever been duplicated.”
Christian Belady Jul 18, 2024 ▶ 34:35 Can chip efficiency slow AI's energy demand?
Assertion Supported
Janus: Microsoft's energy demand grew from hundreds of megawatts to gigawatts
“Over that decade, we had gone from a baseline of, you know, a couple hundred megawatts, and we were growing at a relatively rapid pace, but that's also kind of a small denominator. So the incremental tranches every year that we had to go procure were measured …”
Brian Janous Jun 13, 2024 ▶ 7:23 Under the hood of data center power demand
Assertion Supported
Shayle Kann says Frontier, Microsoft, and Shopify dominate durable carbon removal
“Though there is a growing buyer pool, it's really still predominantly dominated by a small number of companies that are procuring in part, not just for their own benefit, but trying to foster an ecosystem and support the development of the industry, right? So …”
Shayle Kann Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 2:59 The challenges of building a carbon removal portfolio
Assertion Supported
McAvoy: Meta, Oracle, and Microsoft are building in-house energy teams
“And especially, like, you know, even the likes of, like, Meta and, you know, you have your Oracles of the World and your Microsofts and, you know, everyone else who are trying to build, build, build, build these out. They're investing even in their own teams. …”
Sean McAvoy Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 26:54 Battery booms and the rise of flexibility [partner content]
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Matthew: Amazon added 3.8 GW and Microsoft added 2 GW over 12 months
“Like Amazon brought on 3.8 gigawatts in the last 12 months. So they're going to double their footprint in the next two years. Microsoft said they're going to double as well. And they brought on two gigawatts in the last 12 months.”
Shanu Matthew Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 14:29 Who benefits from the AI power bottleneck?
Disclosure
Terra Praxis uses AI to identify coal sites for nuclear repowering
“We have a partnership with a, with an NGO called Terra Praxis. And with Terra Praxis, we are identifying coal power sites for repowering to nuclear and SMR, so small modular reactors.”
Laurent Bueneau Mar 11, 2025 ▶ 14:05 How AI is solving real utility challenges [partner content]
Assertion Supported
Microsoft AI screened 32 million battery electrolyte candidates down to 100
“What you're referring to is a project where AI was leveraged by our research teams to screen over thirty-two million candidates for a new electrolyte for advanced batteries. Thanks to AI inference, you know, the R&D scientists were able to go from that number …”
Laurent Bueneau Mar 11, 2025 ▶ 7:08 How AI is solving real utility challenges [partner content]
Disclosure
Cybersecurity will become fully decentralized for edge and IoT devices
“And lastly, and what we're seeing is a future where cybersecurity becomes fully decentralized, you know, with the expansion of IOT and edge computing, Microsoft's vision is a world where every connected device has its own layer of protection, you know, kind of…”
Bilal Khashid Dec 10, 2024 ▶ 20:04 How cyber attacks could threaten the energy transition [partner content]
Assertion Supported
Lubershane: Microsoft is by far the largest carbon removal buyer
“Microsoft has a really strong internal team doing that too. And they're the single single largest carbon removal buyer at this point by, I think quite a margin.”
Andy Lubershane Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 39:45 The better mousetrap fallacy
Assertion Supported
Belady: Microsoft Implemented Data Center Designs Boosting Pollinator Habitats
“And to Microsoft's credit, we did implement this where the data centers are being looked at to try to see how can we change the design so that we increase pollinators and habitat for pollinators so the fields around it get, have healthier yield”
Christian Belady Jul 18, 2024 ▶ 42:12 Can chip efficiency slow AI's energy demand?
Assertion Supported
Microsoft disclosed overall emissions rose 30% since setting climate commitment
“Microsoft announced that despite all their best efforts, they're Overall emissions have gone up 30% since making initial commitment.”
Shayle Kann Jun 13, 2024 ▶ 35:50 Under the hood of data center power demand
Assertion Supported
Kann: Stripe publishes all carbon removal applications, pricing, and contracts
“Stripe, which has been leading the charge alongside, I would say, Microsoft and Shopify, publishes all the applications it receives, along with the details of what it's selected, The prices and the contracts.”
Shayle Kann Nov 18, 2021 ▶ 3:57 Kickstarting a $1 trillion market for carbon removal
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