The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Frith: Lowest battery spot prices will rise while average prices continue falling
“I think, you know, unfortunately, we're probably going to see prices increasing, you know, moderately in, in the next kind of year or so, I would say, or kind of, let's say two years out, we'll probably see higher prices than we're at today. But I don't think,…”
Mukhopadhyay: Electric Aircraft Need 500 Wh/kg Batteries Near Theoretical Limit
“Whether you're talking about nine, 19, or a hundred seat aircraft, you require at least a doubling of current battery technology, and that's really a significant increase, especially when you're thinking about just lithium ion batteries. That is close to sort …”
Lubershane: Energy storage startups underestimated lithium-ion cost declines from manufacturing scale
“I've, you know, watched and talked to dozens of companies and founders, and I think Oftentimes making the same mistake as they were trying to commercialize some kind of better mousetrap for energy storage, which is they underestimated the pace at which the cos…”
Lubbershane: Battery cost will not constrain vehicle electrification, but density will
“Cost of batteries to some degree, although I think we have increasing confidence that cost of batteries is not going to be the constraint on basically electrifying any class of vehicle, but density of batteries definitely does matter.”
Lubershane: Ultra-dense batteries will commercialize in defense long before EVs
“Lithium-ion batteries we have today are kind of good enough from a range standpoint, so like, it would be cool to have a thousand watt-hour per kilogram battery, but not at four times the price. Like, I just don't, I think that would not get traction in the EV…”
Lubbershane: High-performance lithium battery density will improve 50% within a decade
“I think it is reasonably safe to assume that we're going to get at least a 50% improvement in lithium ion battery density for high performance batteries in the next, let's say, five to 10 years.”
Bullard: Lithium-ion battery pack prices rose 7% in 2022
“The weighted average pack price for lithium ion batteries went up year on year last year. So 20, 21 actually came very, very close to going up. If you hadn't used full year data, it would have been close. But last year, the weighted average pack price was up a…”
Kann: Modular manufacturability drives steep clean-tech learning curves
“I'm probably not the world's greatest expert on this question, but I think the fundamental thing that drives these learning curves is sort of manufacturability. Like, can you scale up manufacturing of the thing at, by number, not just by scale? So in the conte…”
Lubbershane: Liquid hydrogen has up to 3x lithium-ion volumetric density
“We're talking about, you know, maybe Two times for compressed hydrogen, maybe up to three times for liquid hydrogen relative to the volumetric density of lithium ion batteries.”
Kann: Top ten lithium-ion battery manufacturers are all Asian companies
“The top 10 manufacturers of lithium ion batteries are all based in Asia. Which is pretty interesting. So not all based in China. So this is the interesting dynamic about battery manufacturing at the moment. It is, yes, CATL, which is a Chinese company, is the …”
Yergin: Net-zero supply chains flow through China via solar and battery dominance
“So many of them flow through China because of its dominance of solar panel manufacturing, its dominance of lithium ion batteries, etc.,”
Lacey: Lithium prices rose fivefold in a year and Russia supplies 10% of nickel
“Lithium prices have risen fivefold since April of last year. Nickel is also a particular concern because Russia supplies 10% of the world's nickel, and that's another key component in lithium ion batteries.”
Kann: Lithium had the highest commodity price surge in 2021, rising 300-400%
“But on the entire list, the biggest price increase was for lithium, both lithium bicarbonate and lithium hydroxide, the two different formulations used in lithium ion batteries. Prices rose between 304 hundred percent in both cases last year, and they've only …”