why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Steingart: Graphite battery recycling is hard to justify economically and technically
“Long story short, graphite recycling is in its infancy, and it's pretty difficult to justify from a purity and homogeneity basis, and, you know, frankly, there, there's plenty of graphite in the ground, so, so it's hard to justify from an economic basis recycl…”
Prediction Held up
Frith: Silicon anodes will eventually beat graphite on cost
“Over the next few years, we're going to see the increasing kind of adoption of silicon materials. And again, some silicon materials, not all, but some silicon materials will give you a Cost advantage over graphite. So on a per kilowatt hour basis, you'll have …”
Assertion Supported
Lott: China Produces 80% of Global Graphite
“60% of manganese comes from South Africa, China, and Australia, and China sources 80% of the world's graphite.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
New non-Chinese graphite facilities could produce significant volume by 2026
“I mean, there are graphite facilities being built today that should happen very relatively quickly and have a chance to be producing significant amounts of graphite in twenty-twenty-six.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2032
Jaffe: Graphite will continue to dominate EV anodes over the next decade
“On the anode side, it's going to be for this next decade, it's, we're still going to be living in a graphite dominated world with more and more silicon coming into the
The anode, but it's still going to be mostly graphite”
Assertion Supported
Lott: China refines 90% of graphite and restricted exports in late 2023
“China refines 90% of the world's graphite. And at the end of 2023, China restricted graphite exports in an effort to protect its own supply.”
Assertion Supported
Essentially all EV battery graphite currently originates from China
“And graphite is of course going to be one of the most severely challenged areas of battery materials, because today all graphite essentially is coming from China.”