why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Frith: Normalized US LFP cell production is 8% costlier than China
“For a LFP cell produced in China, 35 gigawatt hour facility you're looking at around kind of 68 dollars per kilowatt hour. So this isn't kind of optimized for these super low prices that we we're seeing today, but Assumes a kind of LFP material costs of about …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Cantor: BNEF projects roughly 32% US EV sales growth in 2024
“So we just released our year ahead at the end of December, and we see about 32% growth.”
Assertion Supported
Cantor: US EV sales grew nearly 50% in 2023 to 1.45M
“By the end of twenty-twenty-three, according to our data, EV sales were up almost 50% year on year from 2022 to about 1.45 million in total, up from about 971,000. Now we're counting both BEV and PHEV in our kind of EV metrics, but impressive nonetheless.”
Assertion Supported
Cantor: December was highest US EV sales month in 2023
“But when you're looking at the actual monthly sales data, it was really only October and November that we saw in our preliminary data where there was any type of dip. In fact, December was the highest month we had for all of 2023, again, based on preliminary d…”
Assertion Supported
BNEF: Economic build models overestimate U.S. solar by 10-20 GW annually
“If in a world in which you just dispatch whatever's cheapest, you know, the solar numbers would be, you know, 10 to 20 gigabyte 10 to 20 gigawatts higher per year of stuff that the, that our model sort of spits out. And that's where human beings have to get in…”
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Lithium-ion battery pack prices rose 7% in 2022
“The weighted average pack price for lithium ion batteries went up year on year last year. So 20, 21 actually came very, very close to going up. If you hadn't used full year data, it would have been close. But last year, the weighted average pack price was up a…”
Prediction Held up
BNEF Forecasts Global Solar Installations to Exceed 251 GW in 2022
“We are forecasting officially 251 gigawatts of build this year, up from 182 last year. So that's pretty strong growth, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out at higher than 251 gigawatts.”
Assertion Supported
Zindler: Chinese Solar Module Prices Have Dropped to Around 20 Cents
“In our latest you know, our latest market outlook, we're saying we're seeing module prices now down to somewhere around 20 cents on a, You know, Chinese module, and that's down from, I think it was 28, 29 cents, sort of a year or two ago”
Assertion Supported
Jenny Chase: Global solar capacity recently surpassed one terawatt
“We just went over a terawatt.”