The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Microsoft has dropped to fourth in hyperscaler energy sophistication
“I don't think I wouldn't call Microsoft now the second. I probably would rank them fourth now. I think you've seen Amazon step up pretty dramatically, and you've seen them at the frontier of a bunch of, you know, unique type of deals.”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Nvidia risks losing silicon share unless it backstops neocloud power
“It's actually becoming a pretty existential risk for NVIDIA because if they don't support the NeoClouds, they're at risk of basically seeing Google Amazon and others take tremendous market share on the silicon side, right? So you would see Tranium take, take m…”
McGinnis: Permissionless plug-in systems can eliminate residential install soft costs
“Permissionless can effectively Put that to zero. Because two of the big components there are three of the big components are permitting labor and CAC. And so think about a buy online motion where a consumer is just going to Amazon and buying one of these and p…”
McGinnis: Rising electric bills will drive mass adoption of DIY plug-in energy
“The more that we see bills go up in the U.S., regardless of what the rules out there are, people are gonna go on Amazon, they're gonna start buying the stuff, they're gonna start plugging it in, and so I think this is coming one way or another, and it's really…”
Kimber: Edge LLMs trigger recursive queries, massively multiplying datacenter power demand
“Every smaller distilled LLM that is power efficient doing inference is going to launch thousands of queries to bigger, more capable models that can actually reason their way through buying something on Amazon and reason. So it's almost like increasing the worl…”
Grunwald: Feeding 2050 Population Needs Two Indias' Worth of New Land
“If, even if we continue to increase farm yields at the same rate they've increased throughout the Green Revolution we're gonna need another two India's worth of land, which essentially means, you know, gonna bye-bye Amazon and Congo rainforests, you know, very…”
Janus: Hyperscaler climate targets are probably not achievable on time
“And so there is, I think at this point, a point of coming to grips with the fact that those targets are probably not achievable in the time horizons that they had all set.”
Orbuch: Avoided deforestation carbon credits have near-zero net impact due to leakage
“Avoided deforestation, for example, is like a classically cheap and conceptually compelling credit especially in, you know, say the Amazon that's I mean, basically impossible to prove the counterfactual because there's often significant amounts of leakage, and…”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: OpenAI and Anthropic drive half of Amazon and Microsoft buildout
“Increasingly, you basically look at Amazon or Microsoft, how many gigawatts they're building every quarter? Half of that is going to either both of them combined, right? Open AI and Anthropic.”
Lubbershane: Amazon turns to Bloom Energy fuel cells for Oregon data centers
“Amazon announced that they've got these three new data centers in Oregon that they're going to be, at least for the short term, powering with fuel cells from Bloom Energy, natural gas powered fuel cells. And part of that is because they just can't get connecte…”
Major tech companies will achieve true zero-carbon power without using offsets
“So there is a future In my opinion, for those companies to get to not just net zero on a on a basis of using offsets or other things, but actually truly having zero carbon power”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Google and Amazon drove bulk of 150 GW utility load pipeline
“The bulk of these contracted loads, I think at the end of 25, we had like a 150 gigawatts the PPL, you know, in, in, in Pennsylvania. That's mostly Google and Amazon. They're the ones sort of scouting all of the utility markets and you know, putting deposits a…”
Matthew: Amazon added 3.8 GW and Microsoft added 2 GW over 12 months
“Like Amazon brought on 3.8 gigawatts in the last 12 months. So they're going to double their footprint in the next two years. Microsoft said they're going to double as well. And they brought on two gigawatts in the last 12 months.”