The Ledger
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Jaffe: Chinese state industrial policy created CATL, now the world's top producer
“The emergence of CATL, which was essentially a company that was really invented in the back rooms of the industrial governmental complex in, in China about 12 years ago that, and it essentially just, you know, it followed the plan perfectly and is now the larg…”
Jaffe: Northvolt doomed itself by attempting six gigafactories simultaneously
“What they ended up trying to do was build, essentially build six gigafactories simultaneously, which is just an impossible task to handle. And I think that the, you know, that, that the concept of build, build, perfect, and then repeat was not applied. And the…”
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: Treasury Classifies Constituent Materials as Minerals Subject to 50% Rule
“So I think what essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they…”
Lithium processed in China temporarily qualifies for EV tax credits
“If you are today shipping your spodumine to China to be made into lithium hydroxide then that's, if China does turn out to be a foreign entity of concern, that will disqualify that material for the tax credit. So right now, it is going to be qualified, but as …”
Jaffe: Battery industry will nearly double every year for 5–6 years
“The industry is literally increasing by almost doubling every year. And we'll continue to do that for the next five or six years and doubling off of a huge base now.”
Jaffe: Few non-Chinese companies provide end-to-end equipment across 18 battery stages
“There's essentially 18 stages that you're each with its own different types of equipment. And there's very few companies that make every one of those pieces of equipment. And especially there's very few Chinese, non-Chinese companies that, that have That, that…”
Treasury rules classify 25% Chinese-owned entities as FEOCs, barring tax credits
“And that, that number is now 25%, so it can't be a Chinese ownership having, Chinese company having an ownership of 25% or more, or else it becomes a foreign entity of concern, and therefore disqualifies you for the tax credit.”
Freyr, Northvolt, and Volkswagen redirected European battery plant developments to the US
“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others, and …”
Nickel represents the largest mineral value share in most EV batteries
“For most of these electric vehicle batteries of all of the minerals is going to be nickel. And then lithium and cobalt probably fall in second, but the single biggest number to shoot for is the nickel itself, and that's a problem because most nickel is coming …”
Lithium processed in China qualifies for EV tax credits pending FEOC enforcement
“If you are today shipping your spodumine to China to be made into lithium hydroxide then that's, if China does turn out to be a foreign entity of concern, that will disqualify that material for the tax credit. So right now, it is going to be qualified, but as …”
Jaffe: Freyr, Northvolt, and Volkswagen shifted European plant plans to US
“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others have,…”
US battery manufacturing will reach roughly 200 gigawatt-hours by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: Treasury left Foreign Entity of Concern undefined in EV credit guidance
“They did not give guidance on how they define foreign entity of concern for the purposes of the EV tax credit. And, you know, they didn't give any guidance. They were asked very specifically, is, is a country a foreign entity of concern? Do you have to name th…”
Jaffe: US battery cells gain 30% to 40% advantage over Chinese cells
“So you're essentially talking about somewhere around 30 to 40% price advantage, or advantage that this, a U.S.-made cell gets over a Chinese cell.”
Jaffe: US Energy Storage Capacity Will Double in 2023 Alone
“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity
Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”
Jaffe: Seven to eight companies produce 85% of global batteries
“What's really happening is we're moving more and more towards consolidation, and we're now, we now have a handful of seven or eight large companies that produce 85% of the batteries that are being made. And that trend is only increasing, not decreasing.”
Jaffe: Northvolt secured around $14 billion in capital, debt, and subsidies
“It's essentially about fourteen billion dollars in total, including money, actual capital raised essentially people saying we will contribute this amount in the future to future raises and tax credits, which were a large part of that fourteen billion.”
A de minimis loophole allows low-value Chinese battery materials until 2026
“There is a significant loophole, which is a de minimis ruling, which essentially says if there's a small amount of material come, that, that does get its way into, from China then that will, and specifically of materials that don't have high value, and that's …”
Treasury classifies battery constituent precursor materials under strategic minerals rules
“What essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they added this…”
Jaffe: Australian Spodumene Lithium Is Processed Outside Free Trade Partner Nations
“In the case of Australia, they dig up the rock called spodumene, and then they ship it to China to be processed into lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate, and that processing part of the supply chain is actually done outside of a free trade partner country.”
Jaffe: Most EVs Sold Through Early 2025 Will Remain Luxury Vehicles
“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”
Jaffe: California and Texas to Capture Majority of New US Storage
“And of course, California and Texas are getting the lion's share of these, of what's going to be installed over the next two years.”
Jaffe: BYD and CATL dominate a consolidated field of Chinese battery makers
“There were probably close to 100 Chinese battery manufacturers, and today there's 10 that, that matter and that do it at scale, and really there's two that, that completely dominate the industry, and that's BYD and CATL.”
Essentially all EV battery graphite currently originates from China
“And graphite is of course going to be one of the most severely challenged areas of battery materials, because today all graphite essentially is coming from China.”
Jaffe: The IRA lifts the EV tax credit manufacturer cap until 2032
“Now it's time limited, so this is gonna expire in 2032, but through that time you can sell as many cars as you possibly can. You'll get the tax credit for it if you qualify for all of the qualifications you need to jump through.”
Jaffe: IRA critical minerals EV tax credit threshold rises to 80% by 2027
“That is, that starts at 40%, And again, goes up by 10% each year and reaches a cap of 80% by twenty-twenty-seven.”
Jaffe: Average EV battery price is around $140 per kilowatt-hour
“So on a sell basis, our average EV price today for batteries is about a 140 dollars per kilowatt hour. It's gone up significantly because of the increase in the battery materials prices.”
Jaffe: California Holds 5 GWh of Batteries Installed Within 36 Months
“California has about five gigawatt hours worth of batteries, almost all of which have come, come in the last 36 months, and essentially kept California from going into rolling blackouts in the recent heat wave.”
Jaffe: China's EV market is evenly split between LFP and ternary batteries
“At this point in China, you've got about a fifty-fifty blend of LFP cars, which tend to be the smaller cars and tend to be the plug-in hybrid cars. Versus ternary-based cars, which tend to be the larger or higher-end cars.”
Jaffe: Over 60 startup companies are developing silicon anode batteries
“There's over 60 of them... Just silicon anode. Over 60 companies that we track and try to make an analysis of”
Jaffe: China lithium spot prices have reached $70 per kilogram
“Lithium is up 900%. There is a severe supply squeeze of lithium. There's, the spot market in China for lithium is, is in the 70 dollars a kilogram for lithium carbonate equivalent, which is the feedstock material that goes into the batteries.”