Carbon Direct forest scientist Dr. Bodhi Cabiyo discusses the necessity of calculating counterfactual scenarios when assessing the true net impact of biomass carbon removal projects.
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“I think that if you're working on biomass CDR, and you're not thinking about counterfactuals every day, you're probably fooling yourself, or you have a really easy case that's going to get harder in the next couple decades.”
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More from Dr. Bodhi Cabiyo
AssertionSupported
Cabiyo: Enviva turns whole, lumber-grade saw logs into wood pellets for export
“I have a colleague that has toured their facilities in the past and saw that they were pulling whole saw logs, which is, like, stuff you would turn into lumber, like, two-by-fours, pulling saw logs and turning it into pellets to be burned in the UK or elsewher…”
Dr. Bodhi CabiyoJan 19, 2024▶ 14:47Sourcing biomass for carbon removal
Opinion
Cabiyo: A Montana cobalt mine is far better than DRC child labor
“On the surface, you know, like, a cobalt mine in Montana seems like a pretty bad deal from that lens, but it's a whole hell of a lot better than the alternative, which is, you know, mining cobalt in open pits in the DRC with child labor.”
Dr. Bodhi CabiyoJan 19, 2024▶ 34:28Sourcing biomass for carbon removal
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Cabiyo: Global biomass demand in 2050 exceeds sustainable supply by 11x
“There's a huge mismatch between the supply and demand there of biomass and biomass uses and that mismatch is, based on the best estimates that, that I've seen, that mismatch is something on the order of, like, 11 to 16 X. In other words, 11 to 16 X more uses i…”
Dr. Bodhi CabiyoJan 19, 2024▶ 8:17Sourcing biomass for carbon removal
Insight
Cabiyo: True "waste wood" does not exist due to competing commercial demands
“Waste wood is not really, especially if we think about that twenty-fifty scenario, waste wood is not really a thing. There's always going to be a use for waste wood.”
Dr. Bodhi CabiyoJan 19, 2024▶ 12:01Sourcing biomass for carbon removal
AssertionContradicted
Cabiyo: High-quality wood pellets require whole logs, not just waste residues
“You can't make good pellets out of treetops and branches and sawmill residues. You need whole logs to do that well.”
Dr. Bodhi CabiyoJan 19, 2024▶ 14:14Sourcing biomass for carbon removal
Insight
Cabiyo: Assuming harvested biomass power has zero net climate impact is flawed
“All these facilities are predicated on carbon neutrality that if you harvest biomass and burn it, you have no net climate impact which is probably a simplification that we should stop making. Oftentimes you can get close to that, but it's not always going to b…”
Dr. Bodhi CabiyoJan 19, 2024▶ 16:31Sourcing biomass for carbon removal
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