Nat Bullard argues that managing simultaneous load growth, state deregulation, and unprecedented data center power demand has not occurred since the 1930s.
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Texas 2030 demand forecasts diverge between 1,000 TWh and 1,600 TWh
“ERCOT says, you know what, we could go from, like, a little under 500
Terawatt hours in 2024 to like a thousand by 20 30, right?
So let's call it, you know, up a 110% in that time period.
The transmission service providers on the other hand are like, sorry …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bullard: Texas electricity demand will land closer to ERCOT's lower 2030 forecast
“The true number is,
Either somewhere in between or much closer to ERCOT's figure.
I mean, ERCOT has the reason for demand, supply balancing, and upkeep, and everything else to get it really, really accurate in energy terms.
But the transmission service prov…”
Assertion Supported
EIA natural gas plant cost estimates ignore real-world regulatory and project evidence
“The gold standard here is the EIA's cost of generation publication that it does every couple of years. And they published this just in 20, 24, and the benchmark price, and after, after engineers had looked through it, was somewhere in the range of about 1100 t…”
Assertion Contradicted
Bullard: China's apparent oil demand likely peaked in 2023
“In terms of apparent demand, which is what the statistic is called, and it's basically looking at refinery runs in, in China, it's, looks like it's peaked at some point in 23 and the new data that was published as of yesterday morning shows that actually, stat…”
Insight
Bullard: ESG acts as a negative screen, not an alpha-generating thesis
“ESG is a set of issues, but it's not the same thing as a set of drivers. You know, they're issues to be aware of, screens and filters on making institutional investment, which is different than A, you know, an alpha case reasoned to invest capital in something…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bullard: Battery chemistries will segment by use case rather than one dominating
“In batteries, I think we will see a world where you've got some separation based on use cases. You know, there will be the NMC batteries that get used for hypercars and for aviation. And maybe the LFP battery becomes much more common for your sort of bulge bra…”