Energy researcher Jessica Lovering explains the structural driver behind low nuclear construction costs in countries like South Korea.
Insight
Lovering: Lack of demand-pull policy drove high US nuclear costs
“What's really been missing with nuclear in terms of policy to help bring down the cost is that demand pull policy. And so this is why you see that nuclear is cheaper and gets cheaper over time in places that have a lot of growth in demand for electricity becau…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Lovering: Handful of advanced nuclear projects will come online before 2030
“I think we'll probably see ground start to get broken in maybe the next five years, and probably, I would say, a handful of projects coming online before 2030.”
Assertion Supported
Lovering: US and Finnish nuclear projects reached ~$8,000 per kilowatt
“The Vogel project, which just finished in the U.S., is, is probably at the high end. I think the project that just came online in Finland is probably up at this level as well. It's about 8000 dollars per kilowatt, so four times more.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lovering: China Builds Nuclear Power at Roughly $2,500 per Kilowatt
“We can say China's probably building at about 2500 dollars per kilowatt, so not quite as cheap as South Korea, but, you know, nowhere near the U.S., and again, that's probably because they're building a lot of the same design.”
Assertion Supported
Lovering: The nuclear island is only 12% of total AP1000 plant cost
“The actual, like, nuclear Component was called the nuclear island, so it's like the reactor, the pressure, containment structure. That's only like, 12% of the total cost, so that nuclear part is very small.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovering: US will not see eight nuclear companies build thousands of reactors
“And so, I don't think we're gonna have, you know, eight companies building thousands of reactors in the U.S. But I do think we're gonna get demonstrations of several, and we'll probably see which ones work, and some of them aren't gonna work”