Ceibo CEO Cristobal Undurraga and Shayle Kann discuss the global macro supply and demand baseline for copper.
Assertion Supported
China holds 45% to 55% of global copper smelting capacity
“Roughly 50, between 45, 55% of the smelting capacity in the world, so companies that purchase the concentrate and smelt it, are in China.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2053
Copper demand over the next 30 years will equal all historical production
“The amount of copper that will be required in the next 30 year shale is roughly the amount of copper that humanity has produced all over history.”
Insight
Copper mining requires political stability for 50-to-60-year operational horizons
“It is, so it's a function of, yes, nature, but also of political stability and how you access to those minerals. And what's the rule of law that will allow you to make an investment for the next 50 or 60 years? How certain are you that you will be able to make…”
Assertion Supported
45% of global copper is used in electricity and grid infrastructure
“45% of the copper in the world is used in the grid or in electricity or any application that it's either in the production or the transmission of electrons, or the use of those electrons.”
Assertion Partly supported
The Americas produce over half of the world's copper
“The main producer of copper is chile. And I'm Chilean, and we're based in Chile as a company. And Chile produces roughly one-third of the copper. Peru produces another 10% of the copper. And the rest of the Americas, that's US, Canada, Mexico, produce roughly …”
Assertion Contradicted
Freeport-McMoRan surpassed Codelco as the world's largest copper producer in 2022
“The largest producer of copper in the world is, there's a tie. So last year there was a change in the ranking. It was usually was Codelco, which is a state-owned company, a Chilean state-owned company. Codelco was the largest producer of copper, and last year …”