Alfred Johnson

Co-Founder and CEO, Crux · 4 appearances on the record.

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Johnson leads Crux, a financial technology platform facilitating transactions of transferable clean energy tax credits. Before founding Crux, he co-founded Mobilize and served as Deputy Chief of Staff at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

32statements → 31claims → 24claims resolved → 88%fully supported → 3.75/5average certainty → 1.38/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

21 supported 3 partly supported 0 contradicted 7 not checkable as stated how the 31 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

4 predictions · 27 assertions · 1 insight · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 31 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 24 are resolved, and 7 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Alfred argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Johnson: Tax equity market reached $36B in 2025 via hybrid transactions

“So the tax equity market grew from about twenty billion in 2022 to about thirty six billion this past year, which is a really material growth with most of it coming from hybrid transactions that allow for the subsequent sale of the tax credit.”

Alfred Johnson Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 7:19 Frontier Forum: Why clean energy capital boomed in a volatile year [partner content]

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1

none yet certainty 2

75% certainty 3

95% certainty 4

none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Alfred Johnson on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

What they said32 Episodes4

Everything Alfred Johnson said on Catalyst that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Supported

Johnson: US energy demand is rising for first time in two decades

“All of that is contributing to energy demand that is increasing for the first time in two decades. And that's a really material impact to the market, where we are going from a reality where demand was pretty stable since the financial crisis to a world where d…”

Alfred Johnson Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 25:12 Frontier Forum: How tax credit transfers are reshaping energy finance

Assertion Supported

Johnson: 95% of US interconnection queue is clean energy

“About 95% of the current interconnection queue is associated with clean energy of various kinds.”

Alfred Johnson Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 25:48 Frontier Forum: How tax credit transfers are reshaping energy finance

Assertion Supported

Alfred Johnson: Section 45X credits were second most common deal type

“We found that 45 X was the second most broadly characterized or considered kind of transaction within the data set. And to be clear, 45 X's advanced manufacturing credits”

Alfred Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 4:36 Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market

Assertion Supported

Johnson: Most traditional tax equity capital comes from 10 large banks

“When you consider the baseline of traditional tax equity, the most of that capital is coming from 10 institutions, 10 of the largest banks.”

Alfred Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 7:04 Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market

Assertion Supported

Johnson: Sub-$10M clean energy tax credits drop to 87-89 cents

“So at the smallest end of the market, the sub 20, sub ten million dollar Kind of credit sizes. Pricing does fall off a cliff. Like it gets a lot worse, but it goes down to 89, 88, 87 cents on a gross basis.”

Alfred Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 10:45 Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market

Assertion Supported

Johnson: 37% of bid-receiving tax credits on Crux get multiple bids

“So we found that credits that are listed on Crux in 37% of cases where a credit received a bid, they received multiple bids.”

Alfred Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 11:57 Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market

Assertion Supported

Johnson: Traditional tax equity was only economically viable above $50M to $100M

“So traditional tax equity tended to be transactions that, 50 or a hundred million dollars or above. It just really didn't make sense to go through the legal work necessary and the transaction structuring to do tax equity deals at less than those amounts.”

Alfred Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 12:38 Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Johnson: Crux has seen no deals proceed without prevailing wage adders

“To, as far as I know, we have not seen a deal yet that has moved forward without the prevailing wage and apprenticeship adder.”

Alfred Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 15:11 Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market

Appearances (4)

Episode	Date	Speaking time
Critical Capital: Senator Tillis' case for "all-of-the-above" energy	Aug 11, 2026	7m
Frontier Forum: Why clean energy capital boomed in a volatile year [partner content]	Apr 6, 2026	13m
Frontier Forum: How tax credit transfers are reshaping energy finance	Mar 21, 2025	9m
Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market	Feb 20, 2024	20m

Alfred Johnson

The record, in short

Their most notable supported claim

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

How they sound: not measured why? →

Appearances (4)

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