Mar 23, 2023 · 44m · catalyst
Betting big on renewable natural gas
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Host Shayle Kann and StormFisher co-founder Brandon Moffat explore the technical mechanics, economic drivers, and regulatory incentives behind the rapid expansion of renewable natural gas (RNG). The episode examines how diverse waste feedstocks, carbon intensity scoring, and synthetic methane technologies are transforming existing gas grids into critical decarbonization assets.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 34% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 5.6 Guest teaching 5.3 Guest disagreement 1.6 Shayle pushing back 1.6
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 16:53 Challenging volumetric gas replacement critiques
Brandon pushes back against the standard anti-RNG volumetric replacement metric, insisting that volumetric accounting completely misses the 40 to 50 percent carbon reduction potential.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 19:19 Pressing for current market penetration numbersAfter Brandon provides a broad conceptual explanation of gas system scale, Shayle steers him back to answer his specific question regarding exact current penetration rates.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 17:35 Comparing Canadian gas system scale to electricity gridBrandon educates the audience and host on the sheer scale of the gas system using Canada's 8000 petajoules of thermal energy versus 2000 to 3000 petajoules of electricity to illustrate the necessity of RNG.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 41:46 Synthesizing power-to-gas synthesis and cost trade-offsShayle takes control of the technical explanation by breaking down the methanation reaction combining biogenic CO2 and clean hydrogen while directly highlighting the unavoidable cost premium.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defining RNG and Comparing Landfill Gas to Food Waste | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Shayle opens by categorizing RNG production pathways and double-clicks on landfill emissions accounting. Brandon explains how landfill gas dominates current volume despite higher lifecycle methane leakage validated by NASA flyovers. | |
| Dairy Biogas, Carbon Intensity, and Economics | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Shayle asks about unsubsidized prices and the mechanics of dairy manure digesters. Brandon explains the biology behind ultra-low carbon intensity scores versus lower per-ton gas yields relative to food waste. | |
| Scaling RNG Feedstocks and Decarbonization Potential | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | When Shayle raises the common argument that RNG can only meet 10 to 15 percent of volumetric gas demand, Brandon firmly reframes the discussion to carbon reduction potential and the massive petajoule scale of the gas system. | |
| Mid-Episode Commercial Break | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Following the mid-episode sponsor reads, Shayle asks Brandon to benchmark food waste and wastewater RNG economics against landfills and dairy digesters. | |
| Policy Drivers: RINs, LCFS Credits, and Utility Contracting | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Shayle displays deep familiarity with market design by pointing out how transportation-focused policies like RINs and LCFS skew RNG use away from heating and power. Brandon details price volatility and why long-term utility contracts can be preferable. | |
| RNG Mergers, Carbon Valuation, and Industry Bottlenecks | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Shayle inquires about recent major M&A acquisitions and key industry bottlenecks. Brandon counters conventional wisdom by arguing development capital and operational know-how matter far more than lowering equipment CAPEX. | |
| Future Technologies: Synthetic Methane and Power-to-Gas | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Shayle demonstrates strong technical understanding by synthesizing the multi-step process of synthetic methane production and highlighting the inherent efficiency penalty and cost premium relative to raw hydrogen. |
Statements from this episode (17)
Kann: Only One of 40 Tracked Climate Tech SPACs Trades Above Merger Price
“Anyway, as of today, out of the 40 companies that I track, only one is trading above its merger price, which is notable in and of itself. That one happens to be MP Materials, which is a rare earth mining company.”
Kann: BP Acquired Archaea Energy for $4.1B at Double Its Debut Price
“The reason, though, that there aren't two rather than one is that the other one that was trading way above its D-SPAC price was Arkea Energy. Which was acquired a few months ago by BP for 4.1 billion dollars, which is a share price that was more than double it…”
Moffat: Dairy RNG hits -500g CO2 carbon intensity compared to fossil gas
“Fossil natural gas has a carbon intensity over
60 grams of CO₂ per unit whereas renewable gas is typically lower carbon landfill gas probably being the closest to fossil natural gas, anywhere from a 20 to 40 grams of CO₂, whereas a dairy project could be like …”
Moffat: Landfill gas supplies the majority of RNG produced today
“Where a majority of the RNG comes from today is from landfill gas.”
Moffat: JPL found capped California landfills remain major methane emitters
“The Jet Propulsion Lab did, flew the landfills in California, as an example, and even though they had landfill gas capture, they still were a major emitter of methane.”
Moffat: Unsubsidized landfill RNG sells for $10 to $20 per MMBTU
“What we've seen from the revenue side or what that gas sells for, it will be anywhere from 10 dollars to 20 dollars a MMBTU is what that gas sells for in the non
LCFS RIN markets. So if this is going to utilities or voluntary buyers, typically you're seeing t…”
Moffat: Canadian natural gas delivers 8,000 petajoules versus 3,000 for electricity
“I think the north, or the Canadian electricity grid on a total energy basis is like two to 3000 petajoules of energy. The natural gas system for both home heating and industrial use is like 8000 petajoules, and so you're not going to be able to get away from g…”
Moffat: Renewable natural gas is only at roughly 2% market penetration
“And so I think you're probably two-ish percent penetration Of the 10 to 15 we talked about, ah, and really the wastewater treatment side and the food waste side is largely untapped, ah, right now”
Moffat: Food waste RNG costs $10 to $30 per MMBtu
“Cost of production I would say the market on that is ranging from anywhere from low teens to low thirties in terms of price per, per MMBTU, and that's where the market is for that, and that's because that carbon intensity of that gas will move kind of from, Oh…”
Moffat: Many US wastewater plants flare usable biogas
“There's many wastewater treatment plants in the United States that just flare that gas, and you're like, what are you doing? Like, let's look to see what we can do to be able to refine that and utilize that, whether it's in truck fleets or just injecting it in…”
Moffat: Stacking RINs and LCFS pushes dairy RNG to $70–$90/MMBtu
“Where landfill RNG to the utility market may move for 10 to 20 dollars in MMBTU. They can be north of 50 dollars in MMBTU by the time they take the RIN and the LCFS credit in consideration, so they get in a transportation setting, and so the same for dairy. Li…”
Moffat: RNG credit value shifted from mostly LCFS to 70% RINs
“What I'd tell you today probably would be sort of 70% RIN, 30% LCFS. Well, depending on which source of gas and where the market goes, all of a sudden that seems to swing back around. So they seem to stabilize each other, so the average range of 50 to 90, depe…”
Moffat: Dairy RNG is displacing landfill gas in California
“Because of the carbon intensity of dairy gas, and because they're trying to bend the curve on those carbon emissions, you're seeing dairy gas displace landfill gas, at least in California.”
Moffat: 10–20 year utility RNG contracts beat volatile spot subsidies
“I actually am totally fine with moving gas to a utility at a lower price, because they're usually willing to sign terms, so 10 or 20 years, and so that just makes lots of logical sense versus a highly volatile LCFS and RIN market.”
Moffat: RNG sector will see buyer attrition due to operational complexity
“Other ones is going to be an entirely new kettle of fish that's going to be really hard for them to be able to figure out because you've got to go manage this, these facilities, and there are smaller volumes, and they require more attention, and so I would say…”
Moffat: Know-how and development capital are the primary RNG bottlenecks
“The know-how and the labor, and the other one is the development capital to be able to put these projects together are probably the two gating, gating items to move in this industry forward even faster.”
Moffat: Synthetic methane costs over $30/MMBtu with near-zero carbon intensity
“It is going to be more money, so you're going to be in the over 30 dollars in MMBT to be able to sell it, and your carbon intensity is not going to be negative. It's going to be hovering around zero or a little higher depending on your renewable mix that you p…”