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Jul 27, 2023 · 49m · catalyst

Mining the deep sea

Renee Grogan · 31m spoken Shayle Kann · 11m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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Host Shayle Kann and industry expert Renee Grogan explore the geopolitical, technological, and environmental dimensions of deep sea mining as the global energy transition accelerates the demand for critical minerals.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 25.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Shayle as informed peer 4.0 Guest teaching 5.8 Guest disagreement 0.6 Shayle pushing back 2.0
05100:0015:0030:0045:004:28–15:05 · Shayle as informed peer 4/10 The Deep Sea Mineral Resource Base and Extraction Economics Shayle frames the resource base and economic cost curves well, but Renee provides deep structural education on the three seafloor mineral deposit types and how resource-to-reserve conversion works in practice.15:05–23:23 · Shayle as informed peer 4/10 Geopolitical Governance, the ISA, and the Two-Year Rule Shayle tracks the geopolitical mechanics of the ISA in Jamaica, while Renee explains the mechanics of the two-year rule triggered by Nauru and the regulatory distinction between EEZs and international waters.23:27–33:27 · Shayle as informed peer 3/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy and Engie Following the mid-roll break, Renee delivers a detailed masterclass on deep-sea ecological dynamics, explaining non-flattening species accumulation curves and larval dispersion connectivity limits.33:28–40:52 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Mining Technologies: Dredging Plumes versus Selective Harvesting Shayle pushes back on Renee's framing of extraction methods being judged primarily by economics, arguing that permitting feasibility is the primary binary hurdle. Renee reframes by noting regulators require economic feasibility before permitting.40:54–48:33 · Shayle as informed peer 3/10 Enforcement Challenges, Investor Stewardship, and Future Outlook Renee outlines the immense logistical barriers to high-seas enforcement and spot-checks, and Shayle presses her to commit to a specific forecast year for commercial extraction.4:28–15:05 · Guest teaching 6/10 The Deep Sea Mineral Resource Base and Extraction Economics Shayle frames the resource base and economic cost curves well, but Renee provides deep structural education on the three seafloor mineral deposit types and how resource-to-reserve conversion works in practice.15:05–23:23 · Guest teaching 6/10 Geopolitical Governance, the ISA, and the Two-Year Rule Shayle tracks the geopolitical mechanics of the ISA in Jamaica, while Renee explains the mechanics of the two-year rule triggered by Nauru and the regulatory distinction between EEZs and international waters.23:27–33:27 · Guest teaching 7/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy and Engie Following the mid-roll break, Renee delivers a detailed masterclass on deep-sea ecological dynamics, explaining non-flattening species accumulation curves and larval dispersion connectivity limits.33:28–40:52 · Guest teaching 5/10 Mining Technologies: Dredging Plumes versus Selective Harvesting Shayle pushes back on Renee's framing of extraction methods being judged primarily by economics, arguing that permitting feasibility is the primary binary hurdle. Renee reframes by noting regulators require economic feasibility before permitting.40:54–48:33 · Guest teaching 5/10 Enforcement Challenges, Investor Stewardship, and Future Outlook Renee outlines the immense logistical barriers to high-seas enforcement and spot-checks, and Shayle presses her to commit to a specific forecast year for commercial extraction.4:28–15:05 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Deep Sea Mineral Resource Base and Extraction Economics Shayle frames the resource base and economic cost curves well, but Renee provides deep structural education on the three seafloor mineral deposit types and how resource-to-reserve conversion works in practice.15:05–23:23 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Geopolitical Governance, the ISA, and the Two-Year Rule Shayle tracks the geopolitical mechanics of the ISA in Jamaica, while Renee explains the mechanics of the two-year rule triggered by Nauru and the regulatory distinction between EEZs and international waters.23:27–33:27 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy and Engie Following the mid-roll break, Renee delivers a detailed masterclass on deep-sea ecological dynamics, explaining non-flattening species accumulation curves and larval dispersion connectivity limits.33:28–40:52 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Mining Technologies: Dredging Plumes versus Selective Harvesting Shayle pushes back on Renee's framing of extraction methods being judged primarily by economics, arguing that permitting feasibility is the primary binary hurdle. Renee reframes by noting regulators require economic feasibility before permitting.40:54–48:33 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Enforcement Challenges, Investor Stewardship, and Future Outlook Renee outlines the immense logistical barriers to high-seas enforcement and spot-checks, and Shayle presses her to commit to a specific forecast year for commercial extraction.4:28–15:05 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 The Deep Sea Mineral Resource Base and Extraction Economics Shayle frames the resource base and economic cost curves well, but Renee provides deep structural education on the three seafloor mineral deposit types and how resource-to-reserve conversion works in practice.15:05–23:23 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Geopolitical Governance, the ISA, and the Two-Year Rule Shayle tracks the geopolitical mechanics of the ISA in Jamaica, while Renee explains the mechanics of the two-year rule triggered by Nauru and the regulatory distinction between EEZs and international waters.23:27–33:27 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy and Engie Following the mid-roll break, Renee delivers a detailed masterclass on deep-sea ecological dynamics, explaining non-flattening species accumulation curves and larval dispersion connectivity limits.33:28–40:52 · Shayle pushing back 5/10 Mining Technologies: Dredging Plumes versus Selective Harvesting Shayle pushes back on Renee's framing of extraction methods being judged primarily by economics, arguing that permitting feasibility is the primary binary hurdle. Renee reframes by noting regulators require economic feasibility before permitting.40:54–48:33 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Enforcement Challenges, Investor Stewardship, and Future Outlook Renee outlines the immense logistical barriers to high-seas enforcement and spot-checks, and Shayle presses her to commit to a specific forecast year for commercial extraction.

speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Shayle 32.1% · guest 67.9%0:00 · Shayle 32.1% · guest 67.9%3:00 · Shayle 72.7% · guest 27.3%3:00 · Shayle 72.7% · guest 27.3%6:00 · Shayle 20.8% · guest 79.2%6:00 · Shayle 20.8% · guest 79.2%9:00 · Shayle 31.3% · guest 68.7%9:00 · Shayle 31.3% · guest 68.7%12:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%12:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%15:00 · Shayle 55% · guest 45%15:00 · Shayle 55% · guest 45%18:00 · Shayle 19.9% · guest 80.1%18:00 · Shayle 19.9% · guest 80.1%21:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%21:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%24:00 · Shayle 39.1% · guest 60.9%24:00 · Shayle 39.1% · guest 60.9%27:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%27:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%30:00 · Shayle 23.2% · guest 76.8%30:00 · Shayle 23.2% · guest 76.8%33:00 · Shayle 18.6% · guest 81.4%33:00 · Shayle 18.6% · guest 81.4%36:00 · Shayle 29.9% · guest 70.1%36:00 · Shayle 29.9% · guest 70.1%39:00 · Shayle 23.6% · guest 76.4%39:00 · Shayle 23.6% · guest 76.4%42:00 · Shayle 18.8% · guest 81.2%42:00 · Shayle 18.8% · guest 81.2%45:00 · Shayle 5.7% · guest 94.3%45:00 · Shayle 5.7% · guest 94.3%48:00 · Shayle 58.9% · guest 41.1%48:00 · Shayle 58.9% · guest 41.1%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 38:19 Guest rejects separation of permitting and economics

Renee pushes back against the host's premise that permitting stands independent of economics, explaining that regulators never permit unfeasible mines that generate no state royalties.

 Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 37:25 Host presses on selective harvesting permitting viability

Shayle directly challenges the guest's economic-first characterization of technology adoption, arguing that low-impact harvesting could be a binary permitting prerequisite regardless of cost.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 28:30 Deep sea biodiversity and species accumulation

Renee educates the host on benthic sediment ecology, detailing how species accumulation curves fail to flatten out due to high biodiversity and low biomass.

 Shayle holds their own ▶ 37:25 Host demonstrates understanding of precision harvesting trade-offs

Shayle synthesizes the technical mechanisms of dredging versus AUV precision harvesting to formulate an informed critique of technology risk and regulatory approval paths.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicShayle as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementShayle pushing backWhy
The Deep Sea Mineral Resource Base and Extraction Economics 4601 Shayle frames the resource base and economic cost curves well, but Renee provides deep structural education on the three seafloor mineral deposit types and how resource-to-reserve conversion works in practice.
Geopolitical Governance, the ISA, and the Two-Year Rule 4601 Shayle tracks the geopolitical mechanics of the ISA in Jamaica, while Renee explains the mechanics of the two-year rule triggered by Nauru and the regulatory distinction between EEZs and international waters.
Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy and Engie 3711 Following the mid-roll break, Renee delivers a detailed masterclass on deep-sea ecological dynamics, explaining non-flattening species accumulation curves and larval dispersion connectivity limits.
Mining Technologies: Dredging Plumes versus Selective Harvesting 6525 Shayle pushes back on Renee's framing of extraction methods being judged primarily by economics, arguing that permitting feasibility is the primary binary hurdle. Renee reframes by noting regulators require economic feasibility before permitting.
Enforcement Challenges, Investor Stewardship, and Future Outlook 3502 Renee outlines the immense logistical barriers to high-seas enforcement and spot-checks, and Shayle presses her to commit to a specific forecast year for commercial extraction.

Statements from this episode (8)

Insight
Kann: Decarbonization is a transition to go short oil and long mining
“So to a first approximation, I think that a big part of decarbonization is basically a transition from the extraction of fossil fuels to the extraction of minerals. If you've got a sufficiently extended time horizon, then the bet is to go short oil and gas and…”
Shayle Kann Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 2:38
Assertion Partly supported
Grogan: Clarion-Clipperton Zone holds more nickel than all land resources combined
“There's an area called the Clarion-Cliberton Zone. It's between Mexico and Hawaii. It has a estimated resource of nickel that is larger than the entire global terrestrial nickel resource. So more than you have in the entire global terrestrial environment in th…”
Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 6:52
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Seafloor massive sulfides can have 10x higher copper grades than land mines
“Now in something like sea floor massive sulfides, The grade can be 10 times as high as a typical terrestrial copper mine.”
Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 11:41
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Nauru triggered a 2021 UN rule forcing deep-sea mining regulations
“So about two years ago, in July of 21 NARU, which is a sponsoring state of the metals company, which is a company, private company, or listed company that has exploration licenses, triggered what's known colloquially as the two-year rule. So it's a trigger und…”
Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 18:51
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Cook Islands and New Zealand passed national deep-sea mining laws
“A couple of nations, the Cook Islands is one, New Zealand is another, have passed their own deep sea mining legislation. So they have legislation in place that allows for mining applications to be considered.”
Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 22:32
Assertion Supported
Grogan: Selective seabed harvesting is proven in shallow water, unproven deep
“So that, that technology's in its infancy. It hasn't been tested in the deep ocean yet but it has been tested in shallow water and it does work.”
Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 36:51
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Grogan: The ISA will pass deep sea exploitation regulations
“I think the ISA will pass its exploitation regulations. Whether they do that in July is, is a question that I can't answer. But I think there's, it will go ahead.”
Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 45:55
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Grogan: First commercial seabed mineral recovery will occur around 2028
“I think probably around twenty-twenty-eight is, is a fair guess.”
Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 48:12
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