Oct 17, 2024 · 39m · catalyst
The complex path to market for low-carbon cement
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Host Shayle Kann and Sublime Systems CEO Leah Ellis examine the commercial, operational, and supply chain hurdles of bringing low-carbon cement to market. They explore market solutions ranging from corporate book-and-claim accounting and federal procurement to job-site operational validation.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 29.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 4.3 Guest teaching 4.5 Guest disagreement 0.2 Shayle pushing back 0.8
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 31:53 Leah questions conventional carbon avoidance and 45Q parity
In a very collaborative interview, Leah offers her sharpest contrarian view, questioning whether subsidized carbon capture projects earning 45Q tax credits are genuinely catalytic when selling attributes.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 30:37 Shayle cautions against un-additional book-and-claim creditsShayle challenges the assumption that book-and-claim will be seamless by bringing up how cheap Texas wind RECs enabled corporate greenwashing without driving real additionality.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 33:42 Leah reveals government controls half of US cement demandLeah educates Shayle with the striking statistic that the US government purchases 50% of all US cement across GSA, DOTs, and defense infrastructure.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 30:37 Shayle details REC additionality failure modesShayle demonstrates deep market expertise by walking through the specific mechanics and flaws of historical renewable energy certificate markets.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Second Wave of Climate Technologies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Introductory host monologue framing the three waves of climate technology and introducing guest Leah Ellis. Per instructions, host-side metrics are scored 0 for monologue segments. | |
| Global Cement Decarbonization and Regional Trends | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Shayle asks an informed prompt on regional decarbonization trends across the globe. Leah provides detailed context on European ETS carbon pricing, US kiln retirements, and shifting Chinese demand. | |
| Navigating the Cement Supply Chain and Pushing the Rope | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | Shayle sets up the supply chain friction problem. Leah educates him on the entire multi-tiered value chain from ready-mix producers to developers, explaining why pushing green products through intermediaries is like pushing a rope. | |
| Sponsor Message: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | Following the mid-roll ads, Shayle draws parallels to the chemicals industry and probes whether startups must educate every actor individually. Leah explains the physical constraints of job sites, 90-minute concrete set times, and dedicated silo logistics. | |
| Book-and-Claim Accounting and Carbon Crediting | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3 | Shayle demonstrates strong subject matter mastery by comparing cement book-and-claim accounting to historical additionality pitfalls in Texas wind RECs. Leah discusses double-counting nuances and the differences between fleeting electrons and permanent physical structures. | |
| Government Procurement and Scaling Global Impact | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | Shayle asks about public sector procurement, prompting Leah to share the stat that the US government buys half of all domestic cement. She outlines Sublime's two-step strategy of US demonstration followed by global south expansion. |
Statements from this episode (14)
Shayle Kann: Sublime Systems is building a plant with Holcim and CRH
“So Sublime Systems, where I'm an investor, is so far, I think, pulling off this really complex value chain integration, as well as anybody, but They're building a large commercial demonstration plant in Holyoke, Massachusetts, and they've announced a bunch of …”
Ellis: European carbon regulations will double the price of cement
“They realize this is going to, these regulations are going to double the price of cement in Europe, whether you're going to be paying for post-combustion carbon capture, or you're simply going to be paying the carbon price.”
Ellis: The US imports about 20% of its cement
“We're also importing about 20% of the cement we use, so shipping it from overseas.”
Ellis: The average US cement kiln is 50 to 60 years old
“Also, the average age of cement kilns in the U.S. Is about 50 to 60 years old, and we're starting to see some turnover in the capacity that's built here.”
Ellis: Two of three Northeast cement plants closed in the past year
“So, for example, in the past year, here in New England, two out of the three cement plants have closed down. So, the Dragon cement plant in Maine, as well as Heidelberg plant in New York, leaving just the Raveena plant left.”
One large cement plant supplies roughly 100 ready-mix concrete plants
“So one million ton per year cement plant feeds about a hundred ready mix concrete plants.”
Sublime Systems will sell cement environmental attributes to Microsoft
“So we, you know, work with Microsoft. That's one of you know, the announcements that Sublime made recently is an MOU signed with Microsoft and to buy the environmental attributes of some of our cement.”
Leah Ellis: Labor represents 80% of concrete's total installed cost
“The total installed cost of concrete is, is 80% labor, and so even if there's a premium on the cement part, once you roll that into concrete, and then concrete's a very small part of the building, and then, you know, but it is a big part of the carbon footprin…”
Sublime CEO: Standards are not enough; concrete workers reject stiff mixes
“These performance-based standards, the ASTM, the ACI, all of these things are necessary, but not sufficient in the eyes of the concrete subcontractor, because they have to make sure it finishes in a way where it doesn't hurt that man's elbow, because if you ge…”
Ellis: Space constraints prevent ready-mix plants from stocking niche low-carbon cements
“They occupy some of the most central and desired plots of real estate in the hearts of cities so that they can get concrete through traffic to where it needs to be poured.
So they're very space constrained, and every square foot of land is important to them.
S…”
Ellis: Sublime Systems views post-combustion carbon capture as its primary competitor
“What Sublime is doing is technology-enabled carbon avoidance. Our competitor is post-combustion carbon capture.”
Ellis: Section 45Q provides $80/ton for point-source capture that Sublime cannot claim
“There is a 45 Q tax credit for, you know, it's like 80 dollars a ton for removing CO₂ from a flu stack, and we don't have that.”
Ellis: US government buys half of all domestic cement
“So the staggering fact is that the U.S. Government buys half of the cement that's produced in the United States, and that's through the General Services Administration, which has three hundred million square feet of floor space, so they're the biggest real est…”