Sublime Systems CEO Leah Ellis explains why green premiums on cement have minimal impact on total building construction budgets.
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Ellis: European carbon regulations will double the price of cement
“They realize this is going to, these regulations are going to double the price of cement in Europe, whether you're going to be paying for post-combustion carbon capture, or you're simply going to be paying the carbon price.”
Insight
Ellis: Low-carbon cement green premiums are negligible for building owners
“90% of the cost of cement being labor, and only five percent being materials costs, even, even as these new technologies for making cement you know, until they get to scale, they're going to have some sort of green premium associated with them, but that green …”
Insight
Sublime CEO: Standards are not enough; concrete workers reject stiff mixes
“These performance-based standards, the ASTM, the ACI, all of these things are necessary, but not sufficient in the eyes of the concrete subcontractor, because they have to make sure it finishes in a way where it doesn't hurt that man's elbow, because if you ge…”
Assertion Supported
Ellis: Section 45Q provides $80/ton for point-source capture that Sublime cannot claim
“There is a 45 Q tax credit for, you know, it's like 80 dollars a ton for removing CO₂ from a flu stack, and we don't have that.”
Opinion
Ellis: Carbon capture is the only way to decarbonize Portland cement
“There's almost no way around that except for, you know, post-combustion carbon capture. If you're making Portland cement.”
Insight
Ellis: SCMs can only replace about 30% of Portland cement
“So you can only blend about 30% in before you start reducing, you know, diluting the performance.”