StarZero All shows Try the podcast clipper →

Jan 30, 2025 · 34m · catalyst

2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal

Nat Bullard · 17m spoken Shayle Kann · 9m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this episode of Catalyst, host Shail Khan and energy analyst Nat Bullard analyze standout slides from Bullard's annual climate report, dissecting critical trends including the warming effects of aerosol cleanup, China's peak oil demand, the reality behind ESG rhetoric, and the state of carbon removal markets.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 31.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Shayle as informed peer 4.3 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 0.3 Shayle pushing back 0.8
05100:0010:0020:0030:000:00–2:49 · Shayle as informed peer 0/10 Latitude Media Newsletter and Coverage Promotion Introductory promo and sponsor reads with short teaser banter between host and guest. No substantive dialogue or friction occurs.2:53–7:38 · Shayle as informed peer 3/10 Introduction to Nat Bullard's Annual Climate Deck The host and guest establish a very friendly rapport discussing the annual slide deck presentation and how AI might alter analytical workflows. It is entirely collaborative and conversational.7:39–13:56 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Aerosol Reductions and Unintended Climate Warming Nat walks through the waterfall chart of radiative forcing, explaining how sulfur dioxide scrubbing in China and shipping reductions unintentionally removed a massive cooling effect. Shayle actively engages and compares China's impact with marine fuel regulations.13:59–21:12 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following mid-roll ads, the host and guest dive into U.S. energy dominance and Chinese oil consumption. Shayle brings up China's peak apparent oil demand while Nat adds context on refinery runs and petrochemical demand.21:13–27:50 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 The Rhetoric vs. Reality of ESG Investing Shayle contrasts Larry Fink's decreasing rhetoric on climate with resilient European ESG AUM numbers, then argues climate investing should decouple from the ESG label. Nat agrees, dissecting the distinction between alpha drivers and risk screens.27:50–33:49 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 The Carbon Removal Bubble and Credit Market Trends Shayle leverages his perspective as a venture capital investor to discuss the glut of CDR startups and market shakeout. Nat provides data on declining voluntary credit issuance and notes tech demand dynamics.0:00–2:49 · Guest teaching 0/10 Latitude Media Newsletter and Coverage Promotion Introductory promo and sponsor reads with short teaser banter between host and guest. No substantive dialogue or friction occurs.2:53–7:38 · Guest teaching 2/10 Introduction to Nat Bullard's Annual Climate Deck The host and guest establish a very friendly rapport discussing the annual slide deck presentation and how AI might alter analytical workflows. It is entirely collaborative and conversational.7:39–13:56 · Guest teaching 5/10 Aerosol Reductions and Unintended Climate Warming Nat walks through the waterfall chart of radiative forcing, explaining how sulfur dioxide scrubbing in China and shipping reductions unintentionally removed a massive cooling effect. Shayle actively engages and compares China's impact with marine fuel regulations.13:59–21:12 · Guest teaching 4/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following mid-roll ads, the host and guest dive into U.S. energy dominance and Chinese oil consumption. Shayle brings up China's peak apparent oil demand while Nat adds context on refinery runs and petrochemical demand.21:13–27:50 · Guest teaching 4/10 The Rhetoric vs. Reality of ESG Investing Shayle contrasts Larry Fink's decreasing rhetoric on climate with resilient European ESG AUM numbers, then argues climate investing should decouple from the ESG label. Nat agrees, dissecting the distinction between alpha drivers and risk screens.27:50–33:49 · Guest teaching 3/10 The Carbon Removal Bubble and Credit Market Trends Shayle leverages his perspective as a venture capital investor to discuss the glut of CDR startups and market shakeout. Nat provides data on declining voluntary credit issuance and notes tech demand dynamics.0:00–2:49 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Latitude Media Newsletter and Coverage Promotion Introductory promo and sponsor reads with short teaser banter between host and guest. No substantive dialogue or friction occurs.2:53–7:38 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Introduction to Nat Bullard's Annual Climate Deck The host and guest establish a very friendly rapport discussing the annual slide deck presentation and how AI might alter analytical workflows. It is entirely collaborative and conversational.7:39–13:56 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Aerosol Reductions and Unintended Climate Warming Nat walks through the waterfall chart of radiative forcing, explaining how sulfur dioxide scrubbing in China and shipping reductions unintentionally removed a massive cooling effect. Shayle actively engages and compares China's impact with marine fuel regulations.13:59–21:12 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following mid-roll ads, the host and guest dive into U.S. energy dominance and Chinese oil consumption. Shayle brings up China's peak apparent oil demand while Nat adds context on refinery runs and petrochemical demand.21:13–27:50 · Guest disagreement 1/10 The Rhetoric vs. Reality of ESG Investing Shayle contrasts Larry Fink's decreasing rhetoric on climate with resilient European ESG AUM numbers, then argues climate investing should decouple from the ESG label. Nat agrees, dissecting the distinction between alpha drivers and risk screens.27:50–33:49 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Carbon Removal Bubble and Credit Market Trends Shayle leverages his perspective as a venture capital investor to discuss the glut of CDR startups and market shakeout. Nat provides data on declining voluntary credit issuance and notes tech demand dynamics.0:00–2:49 · Shayle pushing back 0/10 Latitude Media Newsletter and Coverage Promotion Introductory promo and sponsor reads with short teaser banter between host and guest. No substantive dialogue or friction occurs.2:53–7:38 · Shayle pushing back 0/10 Introduction to Nat Bullard's Annual Climate Deck The host and guest establish a very friendly rapport discussing the annual slide deck presentation and how AI might alter analytical workflows. It is entirely collaborative and conversational.7:39–13:56 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Aerosol Reductions and Unintended Climate Warming Nat walks through the waterfall chart of radiative forcing, explaining how sulfur dioxide scrubbing in China and shipping reductions unintentionally removed a massive cooling effect. Shayle actively engages and compares China's impact with marine fuel regulations.13:59–21:12 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following mid-roll ads, the host and guest dive into U.S. energy dominance and Chinese oil consumption. Shayle brings up China's peak apparent oil demand while Nat adds context on refinery runs and petrochemical demand.21:13–27:50 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 The Rhetoric vs. Reality of ESG Investing Shayle contrasts Larry Fink's decreasing rhetoric on climate with resilient European ESG AUM numbers, then argues climate investing should decouple from the ESG label. Nat agrees, dissecting the distinction between alpha drivers and risk screens.27:50–33:49 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 The Carbon Removal Bubble and Credit Market Trends Shayle leverages his perspective as a venture capital investor to discuss the glut of CDR startups and market shakeout. Nat provides data on declining voluntary credit issuance and notes tech demand dynamics.

speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Shayle 22.9% · guest 77.1%0:00 · Shayle 22.9% · guest 77.1%3:00 · Shayle 61.4% · guest 38.6%3:00 · Shayle 61.4% · guest 38.6%6:00 · Shayle 31.5% · guest 68.5%6:00 · Shayle 31.5% · guest 68.5%9:00 · Shayle 35.1% · guest 64.9%9:00 · Shayle 35.1% · guest 64.9%12:00 · Shayle 7.6% · guest 92.4%12:00 · Shayle 7.6% · guest 92.4%15:00 · Shayle 17.9% · guest 82.1%15:00 · Shayle 17.9% · guest 82.1%18:00 · Shayle 18.7% · guest 81.3%18:00 · Shayle 18.7% · guest 81.3%21:00 · Shayle 26.6% · guest 73.4%21:00 · Shayle 26.6% · guest 73.4%24:00 · Shayle 31.1% · guest 68.9%24:00 · Shayle 31.1% · guest 68.9%27:00 · Shayle 41.2% · guest 58.8%27:00 · Shayle 41.2% · guest 58.8%30:00 · Shayle 36.4% · guest 63.6%30:00 · Shayle 36.4% · guest 63.6%33:00 · Shayle 59.6% · guest 40.4%33:00 · Shayle 59.6% · guest 40.4%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:49 China coal scrubbing clarification

Nat gently corrects Shayle's assumption that China reduced SO2 by getting off coal, emphasizing it was achieved via scrubbing technology.

 Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 25:35 Pushing to decouple climate from ESG

Shayle challenges the viability of the ESG umbrella, arguing climate tech should sever ties with the label to preserve durability.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:17 Explaining the 0.57C aerosol cooling offset

Nat details the precise waterfall forcing data showing historic SO2 emissions had been counteracting more than half a degree of warming.

 Shayle holds their own ▶ 29:15 Investor insight on early-stage CDR oversupply

Shayle demonstrates his domain expertise as a climate tech VC, detailing the structural difficulties and incoming market shakeout across 500 CDR startups.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicShayle as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementShayle pushing backWhy
Latitude Media Newsletter and Coverage Promotion 0000 Introductory promo and sponsor reads with short teaser banter between host and guest. No substantive dialogue or friction occurs.
Introduction to Nat Bullard's Annual Climate Deck 3200 The host and guest establish a very friendly rapport discussing the annual slide deck presentation and how AI might alter analytical workflows. It is entirely collaborative and conversational.
Aerosol Reductions and Unintended Climate Warming 5511 Nat walks through the waterfall chart of radiative forcing, explaining how sulfur dioxide scrubbing in China and shipping reductions unintentionally removed a massive cooling effect. Shayle actively engages and compares China's impact with marine fuel regulations.
Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub 6401 Following mid-roll ads, the host and guest dive into U.S. energy dominance and Chinese oil consumption. Shayle brings up China's peak apparent oil demand while Nat adds context on refinery runs and petrochemical demand.
The Rhetoric vs. Reality of ESG Investing 6412 Shayle contrasts Larry Fink's decreasing rhetoric on climate with resilient European ESG AUM numbers, then argues climate investing should decouple from the ESG label. Nat agrees, dissecting the distinction between alpha drivers and risk screens.
The Carbon Removal Bubble and Credit Market Trends 6301 Shayle leverages his perspective as a venture capital investor to discuss the glut of CDR startups and market shakeout. Nat provides data on declining voluntary credit issuance and notes tech demand dynamics.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Supported
Bullard: Historical aerosol emissions have masked 0.57°C of global warming
“And then the aerosols that we've been pumping into the atmosphere for a 175 years, reduce the warming effect by .57 degrees C, which is obviously massive, like an obviously massive, significant thing.”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 8:52
Assertion Contradicted
Bullard: U.S. energy exports now match import levels from the 1980s
“We now export about as much energy on a trailing 12 month basis as we imported in the early 19 eighties.”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 17:03
Assertion Partly supported
Bullard: China imported over 13 million barrels of oil daily in 2023
“China has, in quick succession, blown past Japan and the United States, especially because the U.S. Had been on a downward trajectory, and then past the EU in terms of oil imports, and it imports, like, more than thirteen million barrels a day as of twenty-twe…”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 19:23
Assertion Contradicted
Bullard: China's apparent oil demand likely peaked in 2023
“In terms of apparent demand, which is what the statistic is called, and it's basically looking at refinery runs in, in China, it's, looks like it's peaked at some point in 23 and the new data that was published as of yesterday morning shows that actually, stat…”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 19:47
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Larry Fink's letters dropped climate mentions from 45 to five
“I would just go through there and count up how many times did he talk about sustainability and climate, and in twenty-twenty, it was, you know, a combined, like, 45 times almost. In twenty-twenty-one, he mentioned not only sustainability and climate, but he me…”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 22:30
Insight
Bullard: ESG acts as a negative screen, not an alpha-generating thesis
“ESG is a set of issues, but it's not the same thing as a set of drivers. You know, they're issues to be aware of, screens and filters on making institutional investment, which is different than A, you know, an alpha case reasoned to invest capital in something…”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 26:09
Assertion Supported
Bullard: The world now has roughly 500 carbon dioxide removal startups
“There are about 500 of them and there were almost 80 of them in 2021. That were founded.”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 28:58
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Voluntary carbon credit issuance has dropped by half since 2021
“More than three hundred million credits were issued in, in twenty-twenty-one. Also more than 2.1 billion dollars worth of market transactions. In 20, 21. And those have both come down significantly. Issuance last year was, call it about a hundred and fifty mil…”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 30:22
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Carbon removal startup oversupply will force a market reckoning
“I think the overwhelming likelihood is that we're in for a bit of a reckoning in that market. In that market, I mean, both the general voluntary carbon market, and more specifically, the CDR market. Not to say everything fails, but there's just the, there's an…”
Shayle Kann Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 32:14
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.

Try the podcast clipper Learn more