May 9, 2025 · 39m · catalyst
The U.S. nuclear groundswell
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kann speaks with Elemental Power CEO Chris Colbert to analyze the resurgence of the U.S. nuclear energy industry, detailing how tech hyperscalers, modular reactor economics, and streamlined permitting are driving a multi-gigawatt clean power pipeline.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 26.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 4.2 Guest teaching 2.5 Guest disagreement 0.6 Shayle pushing back 0.9
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 5:54 Reframing the 2007 renaissance mirage
Colbert immediately rejects Kann's premise that the mid-2000s nuclear renaissance was an unmitigated mirage, emphasizing that it yielded Vogtle units 3 and 4 and foundational execution lessons.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 5:54 Challenging whether current momentum is realKann directly challenges whether the current enthusiasm will be any different from the failed 2007 renaissance, questioning whether new announcements represent real deployment.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 20:11 Utility financial risk profile breakdownColbert educates listeners on the structural mismatch between regulated utility return caps of around 10% and the three-times capital risk inherent in greenfield project development.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 21:41 Kann identifies utility fleet repowering trendKann injects his own industry perspective, noting how utilities with retired or stalled nuclear capacity across their fleets are actively reviewing boardrooms to repower or restart those assets.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transition AI 2025 Conference Announcement | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Introductory sponsor reads and conference promotional announcements without conversational dialogue. | |
| The Nuclear Groundswell and Introducing Elemental Power | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Kann sets up the macro narrative and openly discloses his board seat at Elemental Power before probing whether current momentum is distinct from the 2007 nuclear renaissance. Colbert pushes back lightly on the idea that 2007 was a total mirage, citing lessons from Vogtle. | |
| The Offtake Lens and Hyperscaler Capital Commitments | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Kann explores corporate PPA dynamics and asks what hyperscalers must contribute beyond standard power purchase agreements. Colbert explains why hundreds of millions in upfront development capital are required unlike renewables. | |
| The Nuclear Supplier Landscape and Reactor Technologies | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Kann questions the supplier landscape given the lack of commercially proven designs. Colbert details Elemental's tech-agnostic positioning between early-2030s light water SMRs and late-2030s non-light water Gen IV technologies. | |
| Modular Reactor Scale and Multi-Unit Site Strategy | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Kann asks whether 600 MW+ site clusters are dictated by customer load or OEM manufacturing sweet spots. Colbert explains how multi-unit SMR deployments lower the cost curve and provide project redundancy. | |
| The Regulatory Environment and NRC Permitting Modernization | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Kann inquires whether NRC reforms have delivered tangible speed improvements in permitting. Colbert breaks down the progression from design certifications to construction permits and compression of review timelines. | |
| The Role of Electric Utilities in New Nuclear Projects | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Kann asks about utility engagement, pointing out their historical aversion to development risk. Colbert explains the 10% regulated ROE mismatch against 3x development risk, and Kann notes board-level interest in restarting retired nuclear assets. | |
| Commercial Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Following mid-roll sponsor reads, Kann prompts Colbert to walk through the end-to-end nuclear development timeline. Colbert contrasts customer-first nuclear development with traditional merchant or renewable land-first approaches. | |
| Nuclear Site Selection Criteria and Interconnection Requirements | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Kann asks about nuclear site qualification criteria. Colbert highlights seismic qualification, co-locating at retired coal sites with existing interconnection, and dispels the notion that transmission delays are unique to the US. | |
| Driving Down Nuclear Costs and Labor Strategy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Kann presses on the specific thesis for driving down high nuclear capex in the US. Colbert uses an Ikea assembly analogy and Vogtle Unit 4's 40% cost reduction over Unit 3 to argue for multi-unit site repetition and labor retention bonuses. | |
| Deployment Timelines and Long-Term Nuclear Outlook | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | Kann asks for realistic commercial online dates across North America. Colbert outlines near-term deployment expectations for the early 2030s, cites capital cost estimates around $10k per kilowatt, and closes collaboratively. |
Statements from this episode (21)
Google and Elemental Power announce 1.8 GW US nuclear portfolio
“Elemental came out of stealth this week and announced a big partnership with Google to develop a three-site portfolio of at least 1.8 gigawatts of new nuclear in the U.S.”
Hyperscalers and AI power demand will enable US nuclear deployment
“Back in the 2000, there was not really any demand growth. Now we're seeing phenomenal demand growth, which was strong to begin with, but just, I mean, really taken off with artificial intelligence driving it. And, you know, those trillion dollar balance sheet …”
Nuclear development costs hundreds of millions upfront, far exceeding renewable projects
“Unlike renewables, where the development cost might be in the tens of millions of dollars at most It's hundreds of millions of dollars for nuclear, and you can't just have a power purchase agreement to make that kind of investment as a developer.”
Google deal directly funds Elemental Power's upfront nuclear project development costs
“They made investment, you know, mostly in the technology, but increasingly as this deal we're doing now with Google is in the upfront development, which is really the key part that needs to be re-risked.”
Elemental Power to select winning nuclear reactor technologies within 18 months
“We're technology agnostic in the belief that, or the knowledge that we can go out and find sites that are amenable to the hyperscale is what they need for offtake and location that we can develop in a way that in a year from now or, A year and a half from now,…”
At least three or four advanced nuclear reactor developers will succeed
“I'm very comfortable that, there's going to be, you know, probably three or four at least that are going to make it through that part of it that will be successful in the long term.”
Light water reactors deploy in early 2030s; non-light water in late 2030s
“The early thirties is the light water reactors, and the late thirties is when we'll see commercially more of the non-light water reactors coming to fore.”
Multi-unit SMR sites reduce factory and field cost curves faster
“And when you have multiples at a site and multiples in a deployment, you can get down those cost curves both in the factory and in the field more readily than you could with a large reactor.”
No modern commercial reactor design has received an NRC operating license yet
“Nobody's gotten yet to the point of An operating license where you get the ability to load the fuel into these new designs.”
Light water reactors carry zero technology risk, only field construction challenges
“So, for light water reactor technology there really isn't a technology risk, it's just, Pulling together the right pieces to, you know, de-risk it in the front end to get to a final investment decision and then start construction and have a solid plan to be su…”
NRC nuclear application review timelines have dropped from four to two years
“That has been demonstrated by reduced timelines for them to review various applications I've observed just in the 15 years I've been in the nuclear space where, you know, what once took four years is now being done in two years.”
Nuclear plant development timelines will fall from eight to five years
“I do see a path by which you get down to, from the seven to eight years, we're looking at the first ones, to getting down to five or six years, which to me really makes a game changer when people have their planning horizons.”
Regulated utilities cannot take nuclear development risk with returns capped at 10%
“You know, what I hear from utilities now is what I heard from utilities back in the past, right, is that, you know, they fundamentally can't take development risk. And, you know, that's a, having done fossil plant development, I did that for 15 years of coal a…”
Elemental Power expects its first nuclear plant to operate by 2032
“26 to 28, we're doing a construction permit. You know, 29, we start construction, and by 32, 33, we're operating the plant.”
Small modular reactors for tech companies fit on 100 acres or less
“The smaller plant sizes, the small modular reactors you're looking at for Google, can probably fit about a hundred acres or so or less.”
Permitting new transmission lines is globally harder than building nuclear plants
“It's going to be easier to permit and get a nuclear plant built than it is to get new transmission lines, and that's just historically how it's been, you know, everywhere I've been, whether it's in the US, the UK, Australia. Over in Taiwan Philippines, people …”
Former US coal and industrial sites have sufficient transmission for new nuclear
“In the U.S., we have a pretty robust system where any former coal plant or any former large industrial site We'll typically have the transmission infrastructure necessary for it.”
Plant Vogtle Unit 4 cost 40% less to construct than Unit 3
“You know, unit four, I think, was 40% less than unit three.”
Paying construction labor premiums is far cheaper than nuclear schedule delay costs
“You just got to be able to, as an owner, admit that if I have to pay a person five dollars extra an hour to keep them working on my project as opposed to going down to the data center project down the road, then you pay that because if you don't, The cost for …”
Elemental targets 4.2 GW nuclear capacity by 2030, 100 GW by 2040
“Our goal was to have a gigawatt under construction by twenty-thirty, 10 by 35, and a hundred gigawatts by twenty-forty. We're now looking at 4.2 gigawatts by twenty-thirty, so we've already, like, quadrupled that, or halfway there to our twenty-thirty-five goa…”