May 22, 2025 · 36m · catalyst
What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Host Shayle Khan interviews Ocean Minerals CEO Hans Smit to explore the geopolitical, regulatory, technological, and economic realities of deep-sea mining following a U.S. executive order aimed at accelerating seabed mineral extraction.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 22.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 4.7 Guest teaching 4.6 Guest disagreement 0.9 Shayle pushing back 1.8
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 12:20 Hans counters the 'piece of paper' dismissal
Hans directly rejects the suggestion that the executive order will simply be an ineffective piece of paper, emphasizing the massive real-world shift in industry visibility it creates.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 11:56 Shayle challenges the practical impact of the EOShayle directly challenges whether the Trump administration's executive order will alter deep-sea mining exploration in practice or remain an inconsequential gesture.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 25:58 Hans breaks down hydrometallurgical processing mechanicsHans thoroughly educates on how polymetallic nodules are processed using acid solution and conventional separation methods, correcting the prevailing myth that uninvented refining tech is needed.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 33:07 Shayle details commodity price volatility dynamicsShayle demonstrates high market expertise by analyzing commodity price correlation, depressed nickel prices, and how multi-mineral revenue stacks impact projected cash flows.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Episode Sponsors: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | This segment consists of sponsor advertisements and an introductory monologue by the host laying out the basics of deep-sea mining. There is no guest interaction, so host-side and combativeness scores are zero. | |
| Analyzing the Trump Executive Order and Maritime Jurisdictions | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Shayle asks Hans to break down Trump's executive order and maritime law jurisdictions like UNCLOS and EEZs. Hans provides a detailed educational breakdown of the regulatory structure and Clarion-Clipperton Zone history in a cordial, cooperative manner. | |
| Implications of the EO, International Waters, and Industry Visibility | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Shayle pushes on whether the EO will amount to anything more than a piece of paper given legal and domestic hurdles. Hans pushes back mildly against excessive cynicism, noting the EO puts deep-sea mining into mainstream global focus and validation. | |
| Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Following the mid-roll sponsor break, Shayle queries the practical bottlenecks in the US. Hans explains how the US oil and gas model reliant on NOAA and BOEM vessels creates multi-year delays, suggesting instead adopting the Cook Islands private licensing model. | |
| Cook Islands and Global Leadership in Polymetallic Nodule Exploration | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | Shayle inquires about progress in the Cook Islands versus other jurisdictions like Japan. Hans provides an informative status update on the three license holders in the Cook Islands and the roadmap toward production. | |
| Environmental Impact Assessment and Marine Baseline Data Collection | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Shayle asks whether extraction environmental mitigation requires unproven technology. Hans educates that the core extraction technology has been proven since the 1970s and that current work focuses on establishing environmental baseline data for adaptive management. | |
| Downstream Processing and Hydrometallurgical Refining of Nodules | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Shayle probes downstream refining bottlenecks for polymetallic ores. Hans explains the hydrometallurgical leaching process, dismantling the misconception that new refining chemistry is required, and Shayle demonstrates understanding by framing it as a train of existing industrial building blocks. | |
| Economics and Capital Formation: Subsea Mining vs Terrestrial Mining | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Shayle asks for a breakdown of CapEx and OpEx compared to land-based mining. Hans explains the ore grade advantage and infrastructure differences, while Shayle succinctly synthesizes the trade-off between higher per-ton operating efficiency and capital structure. | |
| Commodity Price Volatility and the Stabilizing Role of Manganese | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | Shayle brings sophisticated knowledge of commodity pricing, analyzing nickel and cobalt volatility against copper. Hans agrees and explains how the sheer market volume and high share of manganese cushions the project against single-commodity downturns. |
Statements from this episode (12)
Khan: Trump's deep-sea mining executive order aims to accelerate U.S. market
“President Trump, in his second term focus on energy dominance, would find his way to deep sea mining and issue an executive order intended to speed up the market, at least for the United States.”
Smit: Trump deep-sea mining order covers international and foreign waters
“And I think the other important thing about the executive order is that it has stipulated that it's not just US territorial waters. This is international waters as well as other exclusive zones.”
Smit: Both the EU and China have invested heavily in deep-sea mining tech
“The European Union has spent a lot of money developing technology and equipment, so have the Chinese.”
Smit: Ocean Minerals avoids U.S. waters due to weak investor legal protections
“We, as a company, for example, are not inclined to explore in, ah, US territorial waters, ah, because our investors are not given the kind of Assurances and rights that we would get in other areas that would allow us to get a return on an investment if we were…”
Smit: NOAA research vessels are booked out for two to four years
“NOAA's boats are already booked out for the next two to three years, possibly even the next four years.”
Smit: Cook Islands seabed mining is 2 to 4 years from production
“We probably two to four years away from first production is, is where we are in the cooks.”
Smit: Seabed extraction technology has been proven since the 1970s
“The technology is known and proven and it has been proven. And incidentally, the first time it was proven was back in the 19 seventies. So the tech for this has been has been around for multiple decades.”
Smit: Cook Islands seabed nodules contain rare earth elements
“In the case of the Cook Islands nodules, rare earths as well, which is another thing everybody's hot about.”
Smit: Ocean mining avoids expensive land-based mine infrastructure costs
“We don't have all the big capital costs of infrastructure, power lines, roads, rails,
Dams, et cetera, which means the cost of capital for us is going to be lower. You know, we are going to spend less money building a ship to go mining than what you will do pe…”
Smit: Land-based mines require 4x to 8x the tonnage of seabed nodules
“The other thing to consider is that we are bringing up one ton of material, and in that one ton of material, we are producing the same amount of metal
As you would need to have anywhere between three and five land-based mines. So for them to get the same amoun…”
Smit: Ocean Minerals project will yield ~$500M annual free cash flow
“The mining system CAPEX is around five hundred million dollars you know, the processing plant probably around two billion dollars but what,
For that investment, do you get in return for your project? So, you know, our project is in anywhere between three and f…”
Smit: Manganese ensures Ocean Minerals' profitability despite cobalt and nickel price crashes
“With the recent crash of the cobalt price and nickel For all sorts of reasons, and that's the topic for a whole different discussion, but particularly those two metals with the depression on their prices, our project remains profitable, and the reason it's pro…”