nuclear fusion

13 statements across 6 episodes · 7 bullish · 2 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Dec 23, 2021 by Dr. Scott Hsu · across every show →

Everything said about nuclear fusion, oldest first

Dec 23, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hsu: Scaling fusion gain beyond Q=1 risks encountering unstudied new physics
“So I would say going from .7 to one is is not a huge jump but going from one to 10, you, you're, or from, you know, one to a hundred in inertial fusion you're likely to encounter some new physics that, that haven't been studied yet, which makes it riskier.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 33:07 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Dec 23, 2021 bullish
Prediction Held up
Hsu predicts someone will achieve fusion scientific breakeven during the 2020s
“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 41:05 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Dec 23, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Capital costs will drive 65 percent of fusion's levelized electricity cost
“In fact, the particular ARPA-E funded study showed that maybe 65% of the LCOE might be coming from capital cost.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 36:12 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Dec 23, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Hsu: A single train car of fusion fuel could power the US
“Yeah, so the example I like to look at is one train car of fusion fuel, and that's like a little over a hundred tons. Imagine a train car of coal, for example, But if it was a train car of deuterium, tritium fuel that would provide enough energy for the U.S.'s…”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 6:33 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Dec 23, 2021 positive
Opinion
Hsu: Wall-plug gain is commercial nuclear fusion's true Kitty Hawk milestone
“My personal opinion is that wall plug gain It's kind of like the Kitty Hawk moment, right? Or the Wright brothers moment that people like to allude to. Because it really shows it, that this is re it's really an existence proof now, right? That not only can you…”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 30:31 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Dec 23, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Nuclear fusion produces no fissile material and needs no geological storage
“There is some waste, but it's short-lived waste, radioactive waste and there's no fissile fuel, which is another concern. But for sure, you also don't need geological storage of the waste.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 7:16 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Sep 15, 2022 neutral
Insight
Kann: Nuclear fusion will not inherently provide the cheapest electricity
“It's not inherently true that it's going to deliver the cheapest electricity. That is available on the market, even if it is fusion. It, that doesn't mean that it's cheap because you still have, you could have very expensive capital costs to build a fusion pla…”
Shayle Kann Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 19:29 Averting water wars as we decarbonize
Dec 1, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Solar will be the primary technology driving global decarbonization
“I continue to fundamentally believe that solar is going to be the bedrock of decarbonization. Put another way, if you ask me what single technology will do the most to mitigate climate change, short of some potential geoengineering or nuclear fusion future, my…”
Shayle Kann Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 3:18 Unpopular solar opinions, 2022 edition
Aug 10, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Vijendran: Space solar beats fusion with instant zero-loss global power transmission
“Space-based solar power has all of the benefits of fusion, and some, because it can move power from one place to another place that is underneath the satellite essentially instantly over vast geographic regions without any loss, and even, you know, nuclear fus…”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 44:22 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
Aug 10, 2023 negative
Opinion
Vijendran: Space solar is the only promising clean energy receiving almost no investment
“Peculiarly, space-based solar power is the, Only really promising form of clean energy, potential form of clean energy technology that I would argue the world is not investing in significantly because every other energy source that you can think of, whether it…”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 42:33 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
May 1, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
Schroepfer: Economically viable fusion will produce history's largest companies
“And so I think this is a very binary thing, that if we can actually hit unit economics that are competitive in fusion, It'll create the largest companies we've ever seen.”
Mike Schroepfer May 1, 2025 ▶ 22:59 Catalyst Live at SF Climate Week
May 1, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chaset: US communities will not quickly accept nuclear fusion as safe
“It may be safe, but like, I don't think local communities are necessarily going to buy into the idea that it is safe. It's going to take a while to get people to Sort of be comfortable in the US and other parts of the world.”
Nick Chaset May 1, 2025 ▶ 23:36 Catalyst Live at SF Climate Week
Jan 8, 2026 bearish
Disclosure
Rountree: Cantos expressly does not invest in nuclear fusion
“There are some very interesting initiatives to bring fusion energy about. It is expressly the type of science that we at Kantos do not invest in.”
Ian Rountree Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 15:51 The VC case for 'full stack deeptech'
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