direct air capture

also referred to as: dac

24 statements across 13 episodes · 7 bullish · 7 bearish · 11 people on the record · first statement Mar 24, 2022 by Nat Bullard · across every show →

Everything said about direct air capture, oldest first

Mar 24, 2022 neutral
Insight
Bullard: Carbon removal is inherently a pure cost, requiring regulatory markets
“The challenge is that it is definitionally a cost. Like, it is definitionally a cost to remove carbon. And therefore, like, creating a market around that is a challenge, which is what, you know, the EU ETS did away with that by regulating it.”
Nat Bullard Mar 24, 2022 ▶ 38:51 Will this carbon market boom be different?
Apr 7, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bataille: Technical carbon dioxide removal will reach 1 to 5 gigatons annually
“The key CDR technologies, in my mind, will be direct air capture with CCS, because what CCS does is it takes the CO₂ taken by the direct air capture unit and pushes it back underground, and probably some forms of geological weathering, and it's going to be a b…”
Dr. Chris Bataille Apr 7, 2022 ▶ 34:12 Carbon capture and storage is making a comeback
Apr 21, 2022 bearish
Opinion
House: Direct air capture to synthetic fuel is a staggering waste of capital
“Absurd, absurd, totally absurd technology that will cost, that is the, that is a staggering waste of human brain cells and capital and resources. And it's, and we should be spending at, we should always be working on the most effective, the best marginal use o…”
Kurt House Apr 21, 2022 ▶ 44:58 The great rush for battery metals
May 5, 2022 neutral
Insight
Orbuch: Direct air capture will be far easier to verify than biomass
“Some of the more expensive methods, like direct air capture, are gonna probably be easier to verify. And some of the potentially cheaper methods, especially those using biomass, are probably gonna be harder to verify.”
Ryan Orbuch May 5, 2022 ▶ 31:32 Growing the Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) market
May 5, 2022 positive
Opinion
Orbuch: Geothermal energy could become a major power source for direct air capture
“First of all, I think geothermal could be really huge for DAC just as a side note, but that's not, like, to say that that's obviously not a alternate energy use that would go somewhere else, right?”
Ryan Orbuch May 5, 2022 ▶ 39:13 Growing the Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) market
May 12, 2022 neutral
Insight
Kann: Direct air capture requires 1-cent rather than 10-cent power to scale
“If you have 10 cent per kilowatt hour power, no direct air capture system is going to be anywhere near in the money, no matter what you define in the money as. If you have one cent per kilowatt hour power, then it looks really, really promising.”
Shayle Kann May 12, 2022 ▶ 36:58 Shayle’s “ask me anything” episode
Aug 25, 2022 positive
Insight
Chay: Proving additionality for direct air capture is easier than for soil
“Way easier to establish additionality for something like direct air capture than for soils or improved forest management.”
Freya Chay (Freya Che) Aug 25, 2022 ▶ 26:19 The dirt on soil carbon credits
Jul 20, 2023 negative
Opinion
Emily Grubert: Siting pipelines near fossil plants risks misallocating future DAC infrastructure
“The idea of maximizing now because you're going to need the infrastructure anyway fails, I think, in one major way, which is that it's not conscious of where that infrastructure needs to go. And in a situation where you're designing linear infrastructure like …”
Dr. Emily Grubert Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 34:51 The good and bad of carbon capture
Jan 11, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Kim Zou: Oxy's $1B Carbon Engineering buyout is the first DAC unicorn
“On the acquisition side, I think the one that Climatech investors and founders couldn't stop talking about this year was Oxy's acquisition of carbon engineering at a billion dollars, so the first unicorn we've ever seen in DAC and probably carbon removal.”
Kim Zou Jan 11, 2024 ▶ 26:12 2023 climate tech venture investment trends
Jan 19, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Kann: Biomass carbon removal is undoubtedly cheaper than direct air capture
“It's undoubtedly cheaper, and it could be super scalable, just given the amount of photosynthesis that takes place already in the world.”
Shayle Kann Jan 19, 2024 ▶ 2:48 Sourcing biomass for carbon removal
Feb 29, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Shayle Kann says durable carbon removal procurements began around 2019
“The first procurements, besides some really small individual ones for some of the early, early days of DAC, but the first procurements of this kind of new emergent market that is focused on durable carbon removal really only showed up in call it 20, 2019, 20, …”
Shayle Kann Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 2:41 The challenges of building a carbon removal portfolio
Sep 12, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Khan: DAC needs more startup approaches despite an impending reckoning
“There's an extent to which I still want more mousetraps in DAC, despite I think what's going to be a pretty painful reckoning in the startup landscape, just because I think we need to find something that is truly cheap enough. If we're going to do DAC at scale…”
Shayle Kann Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 37:56 The better mousetrap fallacy
Sep 12, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lubershane: There are over 150 direct air capture startups
“There are now, I think we found a list somewhere, and it's a pretty credible list of over a 150 direct air capture startups, so there are countless mousetraps.”
Andy Lubershane Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 33:49 The better mousetrap fallacy
Oct 3, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Apley: DAC market will be increasingly supply-constrained for 2030 and 2035
“If people are trying to secure the volumes for 2030, 30 or 20, 35, when they potentially want to actually fulfill their net zero ambitions, then I clearly see this will become more and more supply constraint.”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 40:42 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: DAC firms signing fixed-price long-term contracts will go underwater
“Because this is another thing that I don't see a lot of companies thinking about is they're trying to sign 10 or 20 year contracts, but they're making them fixed price. I think they end up underwater at some point if they do that.”
Shayle Kann Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 29:15 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Insight
Climeworks CFO: Jumping directly from pilot to profitable commercial scale fails
“We are of the fundamental opinion that it doesn't really work to you know, deploy in the lab or at very small scale at pilot scale, and then go from that straight to the size that is required for the plant to be profitable, because that's a huge technological …”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 8:42 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024
Disclosure
Climeworks has signed direct air capture offtake contracts up to 15 years
“We've worked really hard over the last, I would say, four years to move the market to something that will actually work for project finance. In terms of offtake. So that means long duration contracts, right, over five years plus ideally 10 years or 15 years, l…”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 27:27 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Kann: Direct air capture is entering its phase two deployment era
“I think we're just starting to enter phase two when it comes to direct air capture. We have the very first few commercial plants coming online now or just having come online, and what the market at least hopes will be a massive wave of others coming behind.”
Shayle Kann Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:45 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Insight
Apley: Pre-treating incoming air makes direct air capture completely uneconomical
“If you do direct air capture, that's the other nature is you have to deal with the weather, how it is, because it's quickly becoming completely uneconomical if you have to pre-treat any of your incoming feedstock, so to say, right? The air that comes in.”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 12:48 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Climeworks' Orca DAC plant has a nominal capacity of 4,000 tons
“Orca has nominal capacity about 4000 tons. What do we mean with that? That means it's that's what the plant was designed to capture at maximum efficiency. So maximum run rate, et cetera. And there's some losses that go away from that.”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 6:15 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024
Disclosure
Climeworks pitched 10x scale and cost curve improvements to equity investors
“The key milestone was scaling that technology by a factor of about 10 improving on the cost curve deploying more on the offtake side, so really building the market for these project-financeable offtakes and also making an improvement on the technology.”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 9:37 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024
Insight
Apley: Direct air capture must dump CO2 if purity standards fail
“The sensitivity of the sequestration on the purity of the CO two and your ability to deliver that purity, 24, seven with all the things that happen in this type of production environment, you have to deliver really, really pure CO two doesn't really matter on …”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 13:33 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Oct 3, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Apley: Some DAC startups might fail due to unrealistic promises
“I think at the moment there might be a little bit too many unrealistic promises in the market, and that might also mean that some of the companies will not make it to that next stage.”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 38:04 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Nov 21, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Thiel: $100/ton DAC CO2 adds $6/MMBtu to synthetic methane costs
“The, again, sort of best case from the chemistry is something like 2.75 kilograms of CO₂ per kilogram of methane. So thinking back on a, on an MMBTU basis, you know, if you want to Get the good sort of CO₂ from the air, and we hit all our hopes and targets of …”
Dr. Greg Thiel Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 31:37 TEA breakdown: green ammonia and synthetic methane
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