aviation

11 statements across 9 episodes · 2 bullish · 2 bearish · 7 people on the record · first statement Nov 11, 2021 by Ramez Naam · across every show →

Everything said about aviation, oldest first

Nov 11, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Naam: Steel accounts for 8% of global carbon emissions, tripling aviation
“Steel is like eight percent of global carbon emissions. It's three times aviation.”
Ramez Naam Nov 11, 2021 ▶ 29:40 Can 'deeptech' venture capital solve climate change?
Dec 2, 2021
Assertion Supported
Kann: Aviation causes roughly 3.5% of total anthropogenic warming
“Add on the additional warming impacts of aircraft contrails, and estimates are that aviation contributes ultimately something like three and a half percent of total anthropogenic warming.”
Shayle Kann Dec 2, 2021 ▶ 1:52 A bumpy ride toward decarbonizing aviation
Dec 2, 2021
Assertion Supported
Kann: Aviation generates 2% to 3% of global greenhouse emissions
“So aviation represents somewhere in the range of two to three percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. If it were a country, its emissions would rank around sixth in the world, somewhere between Japan and Germany.”
Shayle Kann Dec 2, 2021 ▶ 1:40 A bumpy ride toward decarbonizing aviation
Aug 18, 2022 neutral
Prediction Held up
Mukhopadhyay: Decarbonizing 2050 aviation requires today's entire global renewable energy output
“In 2050, the amount of electricity that would be required to decarbonize aviation is the entire renewable energy production today. So all of the energy, renewable energy that is produced today could be used up in aviation alone.”
Jayant Mukhopadhyay Aug 18, 2022 ▶ 37:31 Booking your first zero-emissions flight
Oct 13, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Peterson: Shipping decarbonization is harder than aviation due to lower margins
“So this is like aviation, but harder because there's not as much money.”
Alyssa Peterson Oct 13, 2022 ▶ 11:47 What climatetech can learn from the oceans
Dec 15, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Seven heavy industrial sectors represent one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions
“Steel, aluminum, cement, chemicals, aviation, shipping, and trucking. Add them up, and they represent about a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and they're the sectors where the existing, fully commercialized, mature, and ready-to-deploy technology wil…”
Shayle Kann Dec 15, 2022 ▶ 2:58 Advance market commitments to decarbonize heavy industry
Jan 5, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Friedmann: Jet A will remain the winning aviation fuel specification
“And I think it is going to continue to be the case that Jet A is going to be the winner, and synthetic fuels of all stripes still have to make Jet A.”
Julio Friedmann Jan 5, 2023 ▶ 29:29 Ammonia: the beer of decarbonization
May 30, 2024 bearish
Insight
Lubbershane: 3x battery density improvement won't make electric aviation viable
“And so I think most people who've taken a serious look at aviation and even considering major step changes in battery density, let's say a three times improvement in density, From where we are today, there's just a vanishingly small share of total flight miles…”
Andy Lubershane May 30, 2024 ▶ 18:59 Heavy duty decarbonization
Jul 12, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Long-haul aviation will transition from bio-SAF blending to e-fuels
“In aviation beyond short haul, I actually think it seems pretty clear the path we're headed down, which is a path of blending, of largely biosaf, followed eventually by drop in fuels, probably e-fuels someday in the future.”
Shayle Kann Jul 12, 2024 ▶ 3:26 Decarbonizing the high seas
Jul 12, 2024 neutral
Prediction Held up
Loo: Maritime shipping will not converge on a single replacement fuel
“I think, you know, the future of maritime, it's not going to be single fuel. So we're not going to, for example, move into one single fuel. I think, you know, as a contrast to aviation, where I think there's a convergence that we need sustainable aviation fuel…”
Dr. Lynn Loo Jul 12, 2024 ▶ 11:33 Decarbonizing the high seas
Nov 7, 2024
Assertion Supported
Kann: Refrigerant emissions are roughly on par with global aviation
“Refrigerants are, in aggregate, actually a huge source of global greenhouse gas emissions from a climate impact standpoint. They are roughly on par with aviation, which is big.”
Shayle Kann Nov 7, 2024 ▶ 2:52 Fixing the refrigerant problem
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