The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,728 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
30% Carried Interest Above a 3x Hurdle Has Become Standard in VC
“In fact, what you're seeing is a lot of people are now kind of going to higher carries after hurdles. So there'll be a 20 carry up to a two and a half or three X, and then it'll kick up to a 30 carry. And I fought that for a while, and it, you know, it's sort …”
Hochfelder: Silicon Valley industrial real estate rents jumped 40% recently
“We've been investing in industrial assets in and around Silicon Valley that are benefiting from the physical AI trends, among other things. Rents are up 40% over the last several years.”
Hochfelder: Inland Empire industrial real estate rents dropped roughly 40%
“If you drive 400 miles due south to the Inland Empire in Southern California, which was always the hottest industrial market on the planet, rents over the same period of time are down roughly 40%.”
Hochfelder: Real estate trades below replacement cost for first time since GFC
“This is the first time since the GFC where we're seeing real estate values trading consistently below replacement cost.”
Moyo: China's Africa strategy is investment-driven, not aid-driven.
“Even more recently, the Chinese approach into Africa has not been an aid-driven approach. It's more of investment. Both of these models have their problems.”
Wang: Recent Drop in Hotel Demand Broke a 40-Year Historical Pattern
“Since 1987, you've only had hotel demand decrease in years of large global shock. What I left out was that it declined last year. Now you could say was liberation day, global shock, stock markets up. I don't think so. That broke a 40 year rule.”
Jain: Public cloud adoption is over 90% penetrated for large enterprises
“Public cloud is 90% plus penetrated for large enterprises.”
Jain: About 20% of Qatar LNG facilities are down for years
“If you look at Qatar, they've already said that 20% of thereabouts of their LNG facilities are down. They'll take three to five years to fix them.”
Ethos Capital manages nearly $6B in AUM with just one deal team
“We have one deal team, which is a bit unusual in an organization that has almost six billion dollars of capital under management.”
Chainlink's oracle network has facilitated over $27 trillion in transaction value
“This system has facilitated over 27 trillion in US dollar transactions where people come to us because of that track record.”
Chainlink uses OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google models to reach data consensus
“Through our technology, we were able to have the AI models reach consensus on that single piece of data that is the share split 10 to one. OpenAI, yes. Anthropic, yes. Google, yes. We posted that on a blockchain as a unified golden record.”
Grefenstette: VC capital calls exceeded distributions by $200B since 2022
“Since 2022, liquidity has been negative cash to LPs of about two hundred billion capital calls in excess of distributions.”
Grefenstette: 40% of US unicorns have not raised capital since 2021
“It's 40% of the, call it 1000, Private unicorns in the U.S. Have not raised capital since 2021, I think, or 22.”
Lewinsohn: Software accounts for 30% of direct lending portfolios
“You do have 30% of direct lending in the software space.”
MacDonald: HMC internal managers earned 4% to 8% carry on alpha
“Those folks were generally making roughly four to eight percent carry the alpha that they were generating while they were at HMC.”
MacDonald: Mean PE returns without fee and carry reach top-quartile performance
“If you take the mean return in most vintage years from a Cambridge associate and you back out fee and carry, that's top quartile.”
Kleinman: Asset-backed lending yields 200 bps premium over corporate credit
“It's a different business, and you're getting paid a premium for that type of specialization to the tune of a couple hundred basis points over the single A, double A, triple B corporate cost of capital that company is.”
Monk: Saudi Arabia's PIF has founded over 100 companies
“The PIF, trillion dollar-ish organization, Started over a hundred companies.”
Wolfe: OpenAI Generates Roughly $13B, 70% from $20/Month Subscribers
“Today, roughly, thirteen billion of revenue at OpenAI. 70% of that revenue is from 20 dollar a month paying subscribers like me.”
Khoury: REIT Price Movements Are Now Double Long Pond's Early Years
“When we launched the fund, the first three years of the fund's existence versus the last three years of the fund's existence, the average move in the REIT space is literally two X today than it was then.”
Khoury: Six public real estate companies recently sold to private buyers at large premiums
“The output of that is in the last short period of time, we've seen six public processes for sales of real estate companies to the private market, all of which seem to be happening at Large premiums”
Kelly: Private Wealth Will Be the Fastest Growing Source of Alternatives Capital
“The demand from private wealth will be the fastest growing source of capital into alternatives for the foreseeable future.”
Lyon: Direct lenders now hold $2B per deal, competing with syndicated loans
“Today, direct lending competes with the syndicated loan market. Big players have hundreds of billions of dollars. They will hold two billion dollars in a name, so it's no longer a cottage industry supporting the underbanked. It is a direct competitor to the sy…”
70% of startup employees abandon their stock options upon departure
“At the moment, around 70% of employees abandon their stock options, and employees tend to own 10 to 15 points of the cap table of a given startup.”
Ayer: Discount Retailer Action Cracked Germany Where Global Peers Failed
“Even the areas like Germany, where no global retailer has had success, they've been able to crack that market.”
Kokko: Tegus Acquisition Added Over 1,000 Buy-Side Firms to AlphaSense
“That, of course, led to our much bigger acquisition of Tegas where they were the market leader in that. They'd built by far the largest expert transcript library and a really incredible operation working with a thousand buy side firms out there who were doing …”
Wagner: Florida wind reinsurance yields over 50% for 1-in-10 risk
“The way I characterize it is if you underwrite a risk that has a one in 10 chance of happening, historically that would get priced that you get paid 15 or 20% to take that risk. That number's over 50%. So the pricing around a unit of risk in Florida wind now i…”
Seides: Dietrich Foundation allocates 90% to private assets and 30% to China
“Earlier this year, I had Ed Grefenstedt, who's the CIO of the Dietrich Foundation. And I'll just tell you one thing, then you'll say, wait, that's possible. 90% in privates, like half of that's in venture, like as much as 20 or 30% in China.”
Barth: General Atlantic uses an AI bot on its investment committee
“I mean, I think what GA is doing is really cool in terms of having an AI bot on their investment committee, thinking about investment decisions they made in the past and having that institutional memory in a bot.”
MacArthur: Co-investments now account for 30% to 40% of all PE capital
“Now, co-investment is about 30 to 40 cents of every dollar that's invested in the industry.”
MacArthur: Private equity distributions to LPs fell to 11% of NAV in 2024
“Last year, the distribution to the private equity LPs as a percentage of their net asset value was 11%.”
MacArthur: Buyout returns over the past 14 years saw zero margin improvement
“If you look at the last 14 years of realized returns, Roughly speaking, 50% of the returns of buyouts have been due to revenue growth. 50% has been due to multiple expansion, largely owing to the low interest rate structure that we were talking about, and zero…”
MacArthur: Average PE carve-outs returned 1.5x over past decade, trailing industry
“Now in the last decade or so, the average carve out is earning more like one and a half times and trailing the rest of the industry.”
MacArthur: Ultra-wealthy investors cannot name a single respected private asset manager
“We run surveys every single year of ultra high net worth individuals, and we ask them, can you name three respected private asset managers for us? And the number one answer every single year is I don't know.”
deVeer: Ares 20-year charge-offs beat public market default rates
“If you look at our historical charge-offs versus defaults in the public markets, they're just better over a twenty-year period because of that control”
Multiple expansion drove half of private equity returns over the last decade
“So if you look at the private equity industry, the data tells you that over the last decade, half the returns came from multiple expansion.”
Most private market evergreen managers hold 15% to 25% in liquid securities
“Most of these fund managers in the private market evergreen space, there's still less than 500 of them that exist today. Hold anywhere between 15 to 25% in liquid securities, and they do charge higher fees.”
Seides: Top Six Wealth Platforms Committed $110B to Funds Last Year
“According to Arctos Partners, the six largest private banking and wire house platforms committed a hundred and ten billion dollars to funds last year. Approximately twice the amount invested from the six largest institutional investors in North America.”
Most UHNW investors cannot name three alternative asset providers
“I'll call out a Bain survey from twenty-twenty-two. Bain and company asked 418 ultra high net worth individuals. Name three firms that come to mind when you think of alternative assets and who are the providers. First answer, the biggest answer in the bubble c…”
Bitar: Latin American regional platforms command 10x to 14x EBITDA
“When you look at the latest transactions in the past five, six years in Latin America, all these regional guys have gone from like 10 to 14 times EBITDA. And the going in price for these assets is like seven to eight times EBITDA.”
Forman: Tether Generated Over $10 Billion in Profit Last Year
“If you look at Tether, last year they made over ten billion dollars of profit with a small team.”
Forman: Polymarket Called All Seven Swing States Before the Associated Press
“After the results started coming in from the seven swing states, Poly market reached 95% probability on each of those seven states, in some cases, many, many hours or a day or two ahead of when the Associated Press called the race.”
Forman: Hivemapper Mapped 10% of Global Roads Without Spending Corporate Capex
“It's a company called Hive Mapper, and they've now mapped roughly 10% of the world's roads in just a couple years without spending a single dollar of capex.”
Forman: Strategic Bitcoin Reserves Are Actively Discussed in 31 US States
“We're now discussing a Bitcoin strategic reserve at the federal level in the U.S. And in 31 states.”
Forman: Tether Was the Seventh-Largest Buyer of US Treasuries Last Year
“Tether alone was the seventh largest buyer of treasuries in the past year.”
Gave: Canadian and European Pensions Will Face Pressure to Repatriate Capital
“You're also going to get political pressure on all the Canadian pension funds that are massive to repatriate capital and to bring back money from the U.S. You're going to get the same pressure on European pension funds.”
Marks: Private equity funds hold roughly $3T in unsold portfolio companies
“And by the way, the private equity funds, I think they're sitting on about three trillion dollars worth of companies that they have to sell. To pay off the investors.”
Reynolds: TPG founders apologized globally and let LPs cut fund commitments
“We had to do what we called at the time a contrition tour, which was essentially David Bonderman and Jim Coulter traveling all around the world apologizing to our investors. We gave people an option to take their money out. We gave people an option to reduce t…”