The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 112 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 112 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Smith: By 2100, four in every ten people worldwide will be African
“By the end of the century, that's going to be 40%.
By the end of the century, four in every 10 people are going to be African, and the urbanization story that goes along with that is absolutely colossal.”
Dowling: Lower Middle Market PE Will Beat Public Equities
“You can pretty consistently make good returns, but I would say that these are lower returns than you got in the previous 10 years with private equity, but they're going to be a lot better than the returns in the public equity market.”
Papic: Every post-WWII conflict was a market buying opportunity except Yom Kippur
“In my book, I literally have that table that goes through every conflict ever, and every single one of them, Ted, was a buying opportunity, except for the Yom Kippur war.”
Major League Baseball will continue to hold a World Series in 2071
“I do know 50 years from now, there will be a world series in October.”
Mid-market GP stakes will roll into perpetual vehicles within a decade
“I think we're going to get to some .810 years down the road where these mid-market
Funds are still holding quite a few high quality assets, and they might be rolled into some sort of special purpose or perpetual life vehicle where LPs then get the option to ei…”
Walden: Internet distribution platforms will soon socially credit NFT owners
“And I think very soon we'll see that these owners are credited socially on platforms where that work is distributed.”
Cromwell: Houston will see two extra months of extreme heat annually by 2029
“Houston will have two additional months of extreme heat days unfolding annually in the 2020 to 20 29 period.”
Sloane: Roughly $10T in Assets Will Change Hands Over Two Decades
“What we realized while building value in the Burger King business was that there was a massive opportunity to invest in fragmented markets, high quality businesses behind this baby boomer generational transition, 10 trillion of assets or so set to change hands…”
Dicks Teaches Storytelling Techniques to the FBI Hostage Negotiation Unit
“The FBI I work with these days, helping their hostage negotiation unit tell better stories.”
Khoury: Equity LifeStyle grew earnings through every modern recession
“This is a business that's grown earnings in 99, 2002 1001, 2007, 2008. You name the year, it's grown earnings. And their business is simple, but incredibly safe. They own the land underneath manufactured homes. They don't actually own the homes. It's an incred…”
Oros: Hightower expects at least $100M raised per NEPC private vehicle
“So we're going to roll our first one out the first half of this year with any PC. Our expectation is We're gonna get at least a hundred million dollars of capital raised with each one of these.”
Michalik: Kinderhook expects a three-year hold for Ironclad
“I'd imagine if someone doesn't knock on our door in the next 24 months, we will be going to market with the asset after that time. So I'd imagine this one will end up being a three-year hold as opposed to a five-year hold.”
Vanguard trained executives to answer customer phones during market panics
“Everybody in management Including Bogle and Brennan and most of the others, got trained, and it took a couple of days of time for each person to get trained on how to answer the phones and how to do the job. So if there was a problem all of a sudden in the mar…”
Brown: US wealth management assets will reach about $60 trillion by 2030
“In 2030, that number is going to grow to about 60 trillion dollars, which isn't necessarily a very large growth rate, but still an enormous number, which means that the U.S. Wealth management market represents one of the largest collective pools of capital glo…”