The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gave: Non-US growth will outperform US growth as the dollar weakens
“I think we're living through the end of the year of US exceptionalism. After a 15 year standing run, the US dollar is now rolled over. I think most people's portfolio is on position for a world of weaker dollar, and one where growth outside of the US is going …”
Gave: Freezing Russian reserves is biggest financial shift since 1971
“This reserve decision could be one of, I think it's the most important financial decision since the unpegging of the US dollar to gold”
Western sanctions will not trigger massive inflows into the Chinese renminbi
“So I don't think there's any immediate Re-appraisal of the REM NIMBY as a global reserve asset, and we start to see colossal flows into it, or should I say accelerated inflows out of dollars and euros into REM NIMBY. I'm not convinced.”
Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US
“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”
Japanese Dollar Lending Lubricates Global Money Markets and Boosts Float
“How Japanese institutions are lending their dollars in a much greater scale, which is lubricating global money markets and increasing the float of dollars.”
Van Vleet: Long US dollar positions provide cheaper downside protection than hedge funds
“I just think it's an expensive downside. We talked about my best downside is, is structured long US dollar. That's actually a positive carry. It's not costing me one in 10 to get that downside capture. So I just, I can't get past the fees.”
Gave: Upcoming US corporate earnings will be horrible due to strong dollar
“The first is the coming set of corporate earnings are going to be horrible. Your currency going up 20% year on year, that has an impact on earnings.”
Gave: Most Russian commodity trade is shifting to the Chinese renminbi
“Right now you have the world's largest commodity exporter, namely Russia. That has been kicked out of the US dollar system for its behavior. And therefore, most of Russia's commodity trades is shifting from US dollar to renminbi.”
Bitar: US Dollars Account for Over 60% of Venezuelan Transactions
“The government eventually made the dollar legal tender, and currently over 60, 70% of transactions in Venezuela are done in dollars.”
Chhabra: A viable reserve currency requires a strong military
“In order to have a currency, you need a military. Otherwise, everybody's going to counterfeit your currency, and you need to enforce it in a court of law, and you need to have a transparent court of law, and therefore, the U.S. Is sort of the right country wit…”
Global rates and the U.S. dollar overwhelmed country fundamentals, 2010 to 2024
“There was a long period of time, 2010 to 2024, when what was happening in the world in terms of interest rates and the US dollar was so important that it overwhelmed what was happening in a lot of countries.”
Aitken: Institutional Clients Are Hedging Dollars, Not Dumping US Assets
“Are the clients I work with blanket selling US assets? They are not. For the past month and a half, the tactical ones have been increasing their dollar hedge ratios versus various currencies, which is the first step.”
Puffer: USD, yen, and Swiss franc act as crisis tail-risk hedges
“When we think about crisis periods, the US dollar, the yen, Swiss franc, really play a role of tail risk Hedges and natural diversifiers.”
Textron Pension Holds 5% Levered Long US Dollar Position
“A really easy place to fall back that we have consistently is we just remain overweight U.S. Dollar. We have a standing long dollar with a short versus yen, Aussie, and Euro, and it's a positive carry. We do it unfunded, so it's levered. It's a five percent po…”
Smith: Reporting corporate results strictly in local African currency is extremely misleading
“In the context of Africa, I would say for me and probably for us, it's reporting in local currency without reporting in dollars as well. That can be extremely misleading in high inflation environments, and I really think that that shouldn't be allowed, basical…”
Bitar: 40% of Venezuelan Banking Sector Assets Are in US Dollars
“Actually the assets in the banking sector, 40% of the assets in the banking sector are dollars.”
Franklin: Cambridge hedges portfolio back to 60% sterling exposure
“We approximately have, this isn't exact at all, but approximately a third of the portfolio is in sterling related stocks. Opportunities are just over a third in dollar denominated investments, and then the other just under a third is other. And we have a polic…”