The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 84 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Drogen: Bitcoin is an investable global digital religion and Ponzi scheme
“This stuff was just religious proselytization as a financial asset. Like if you could own a digital religion, would you want to? Yes, absolutely. The first global digital religion that is basically a Ponzi scheme But you can own it. And that seems like a great…”
Drogen: Bitcoin will not become a global reserve currency or inflation hedge
“The techno libertarians who felt that this could be a new global reserve currency, that it was an inflation hedge, that you could extricate yourself from holding fiat government currency and things like that. I think a lot of people drank that Kool-Aid, and it…”
Garcia: Bitcoin will drop to its underlying tech value without government backing
“If governments are not going to embrace it honestly, it should go down to just the technology value of it.”
Paul: 10% Chance Bitcoin Suffers Disabling Attack By 2026
“I put it at maybe 10% over the next five years that there is a successful attack on Bitcoin that effectively renders the network temporarily unusable, but unusable in a way where we don't know when the next attack will be.”
Dixon: Bitcoin is too eccentric to scale to billions of users
“I think Bitcoin's important, but I think a little too eccentric for the billions of people kind of scale.”
Novogratz: Bitcoin is finished as a project and serves as digital gold
“Bitcoin's kind of done. The project is finished. It's good enough to be decentralized gold. It doesn't have to change.”
Pfeffer predicts most native utility crypto tokens will eventually go to zero.
“They wouldn't just stop using it, but they might switch to a fee model where basically you're paying miners to maintain the network, but maybe you're paying them in digital fiat or a store value protocol that might be Bitcoin or something else. So I think that…”
Hamed: Bitcoin has the worst tech in index but unbeatable network effects
“Bitcoin's probably the worst technology of the ones in the index. It's probably slower, more expensive, but it's got stain power, and people trust it, and it's hit some level of network effect that would be very, very difficult to overcome.”
Miranda: Bitcoin's price bears no resemblance to its actual utility
“If you look at the value of Bitcoin, it bears no resemblance to any value proposition or utility that Bitcoin has.”
Gave: Gold and Bitcoin are the only two off-the-grid assets for the wealthy
“If you're, I think, a super rich guy, you probably think, I need to have some assets that are off the grid, for lack of a better word. And there's only two of them, really. It's gold and it's bitcoin.”
Wolfe: Crypto Market Cap Could Reach $5.5 Trillion by Displacing Gold
“If you accept just as a store of value the total gold market at 11 trillion dollars, half of that, five and a half trillion dollars, if you just had generational shift where people said, you know what, I prefer this in the same way they prefer Bonobos to Docke…”
Singh: Bitcoin's blockchain will never have social utility beyond asset hoarding
“The Bitcoin blockchain will not be really used for anything that actually has social utility, but it's an asset that you hoard.”
Sternlicht: Bitcoin is as good as gold and arguably better
“Can't be used for much, but it's certainly as good as gold and arguably slightly better because it's an infinite supply and easily accessible.”
Paul: Bitcoin is a risk asset that drops with equities during recessions
“And we were strongly convicted that that's nonsense, that Bitcoin is a risk asset. And while it might not be correlated one to one on a five percent S&P move, If S and P falls enough, Bitcoin is going to catch up to the downside because that's wealth destructi…”
Sonnenshein: Institutional allocators are rotating out of gold funds into Bitcoin
“Some investors are carving out some of their gold allocation and moving it into digital assets like Bitcoin. We don't find it the least bit coincidental that we saw some of the largest outflows on record from gold funds in Q four of last year when Bitcoin star…”
Peters: Bitcoin Lacks Sustainable Downside Until Institutional On-Ramps Are Built
“Until those on-ramps are built, and until I'm getting those calls from the biggest brokers and investment banks, and there's that, of course, there's downside. There's always downside in market, but I don't think there's much sustainable downside until we at l…”
Peters: Most Crypto Assets Will Underperform Bitcoin and Ethereum
“It's probably the case that a lot of those assets over time won't even come close to the performance that I see out of these two assets.”
Peters: Bitcoin and Ethereum Skew Heavily to the Upside at $50,000
“The upside versus downside is so skewed to the upside that the most important thing I can do as a fiduciary for my clients, which are big institutional investors, they're not small mom and pop punters or Robin Hood investors, they're just Institution. So the m…”
Peters: A 2% Digital Asset Allocation Offers a 10x Macro Hedge
“The ones who are thinking about digital assets are thinking about it in kind of that debasement hedge part of their portfolio. And it's really attractive because it is highly convex. So you could have a relatively small allocation and it could go up 10 X or it…”
Peters: Bitcoin Will Coexist With Digital Fiat Currencies
“The investor in me is, look, this is the future of money. If it's allowed to survive and coexist with digital fiat, which I strongly believe it will be, then we're at the outset of A decade or a hundred year journey in terms of what this asset class will becom…”
Peters: Regulators Can No Longer Destroy Bitcoin
“And so, you know, a number of years ago, the regulators could have destroyed Bitcoin. They can no longer destroy it. They could do various things, but they can't destroy it.”
CFTC was the first real government regulator to touch crypto assets
“We were the first Real regulator to be from a government perspective to touch crypto assets. And there were two reasons. A few years earlier, it had been determined by the agency that Bitcoin is a commodity.”
Smart Money in Silicon Valley Dumped Bitcoin on Retail Investors
“Bitcoin, I think it's a pretty bad investment. All the smart people I know in Silicon Valley who made loads and loads of money bought early and sold early. And, you know, it was all the sort of dumb retail people who piled in late.”
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Novogratz: Web3 cloud protocols target a smaller market than Bitcoin's digital gold
“The whole market clap of the cloud is less than a trillion dollars. So it's one-tenth of gold. Amazon's cloud, Google's cloud, Alibaba's cloud, take their cloud earnings, put a market cap. This is rough, rough math, but it's not eight trillion. And so that gro…”
Pfeffer argues Bitcoin entry price is immaterial due to its binary payoff.
“Whether you're buying Bitcoin at 700 dollars or 7000 dollars or 17,000 dollars is frankly less material because you're either going to lose all your money or make a big multiple. There's no way it's going to be worth if whatever it is, 9000 dollars today, four…”
Forman: Strategic Bitcoin Reserves Are Actively Discussed in 31 US States
“We're now discussing a Bitcoin strategic reserve at the federal level in the U.S. And in 31 states.”
Forman: Bitcoin Is a Finished Product Needing No Technological Upgrades
“What's interesting about Bitcoin is that it's a finished product. There's no real additional tech that needs to get built. There will be improvements to the tech stack of Bitcoin, but that's not necessary for the thesis to play out. In some ways, it's better t…”
Peters: Bitcoin Convexity Will Decline and Trade Like Gold
“At some point, it won't be that highly convex because the overall market cap will be so high and so many people will be in that it'll probably trade a bit more like gold, where gold sometimes trades like a great inflation hedge and sometimes it doesn't.”
Peters: Bitcoin is a highly convex long-term inflation hedge
“You just talk yourself out of buying something that is a highly convex inflation hedge over the medium to long term. Doesn't mean in any given quarter, any given year.”
Salem: Skeptical of Bitcoin, but highly bullish on Ethereum's value transfer potential
“Came out generally skeptical of Bitcoin and really, really bullish on the longer term potential for the Ethereum network as a technology to help people transfer things of value in coming decades and beyond.”
Garg: Crypto will be a multi-chain environment governed by power laws
“We tend to think the world is going to be multi-chain. It's not going to be one chain to rule them all. And there probably is going to be some sort of power law there. So the big winner will be really big. We tend to think Bitcoin and Ethereum will be really b…”
Chhabra: A viable reserve currency requires a strong military
“In order to have a currency, you need a military. Otherwise, everybody's going to counterfeit your currency, and you need to enforce it in a court of law, and you need to have a transparent court of law, and therefore, the U.S. Is sort of the right country wit…”
Drogen: Bitcoin is poorly designed for broader internet use cases
“And if you look at what Bitcoin is, it's a good first crack at solving a pretty fundamental technology problem, but it's not actually designed very well for all of the things that even the earliest people on the internet wanted to be able to do.”
Jain: Developers could not build functional applications on Ethereum in 2016
“In 2016, you really couldn't build anything on Ethereum. It didn't work, and like, you could never really build anything on Bitcoin.”
Ari Paul: Bitcoin faces existential risk and could go to zero
“There's also existential risk. This is maybe debatable today, but I think it certainly could go to zero, as most assets in the world can.”
Paul: Direct Bitcoin Ownership Will Be Operationally Easy for Endowments Soon
“But my guess is that in another year, that's similarly will feel not like a terribly difficult allocation decision operationally.”
Ginns: Tesla's Purchase Forced Corporate Boards to Consider Bitcoin
“And then I think Elon, there's really a dynamic around Tesla's purchase, where if you were your typical board a few months ago, you were saying, do we really need to consider Bitcoin? This seems like a fringe dynamic. When Elon buys, it becomes, why aren't we …”
Ginns: Institutional Adoption Could Turn Current Bitcoin Cycle into a Super Cycle
“So I think we could pull forward the next Bitcoin cycle, have this be a super cycle.”
Ginns: Bitcoin's all-time high reflects regulatory de-risking
“And I think Bitcoin breaking out to a new all-time high and continuing to move higher is really a reflection of that regulatory de-risking to a good extent.”
Ginns: Bitcoin is analogous to a Series C or D venture investment
“So even large cap, you could think of Bitcoin as being a, maybe a series C, a series D type venture investment.”
Sonnenshein: Bitcoin is the worst mechanism for illicit activity
“Digital currencies like Bitcoin. Are, in fact, the worst, and again, I'll repeat, the worst mechanism for you to use if you would like to do anything the least bit untoward, nefarious, legal, you choose your own word. Every transaction in Bitcoin, the best way…”
Sonnenshein: Crypto valuation requires analyzing on-chain data rather than DCF models
“Investors should be thinking about valuing these assets in a way that is distinct from the way that they may look at valuation for more traditional assets, where they're, they might be able to do a discounted cash flow, For Coca-Cola, but for Bitcoin, they act…”
Sonnenshein: Bitcoin is digital gold, not a daily transaction currency
“In the developed world, Bitcoin is at a minimum in today use case, It's digital gold. It's speculative in nature, and it may not be anything in our lifetimes other than a digital store of value. It certainly has the potential to be all kinds of other things, b…”
Peters: Bitcoin's Six Boom-Bust Cycles Prove Its Structural Strength
“A lot of people will look at the volatility that Bitcoin has had over its life, and to date, it's had six discrete boom-bust cycles, and they would say that's a weakness. And I would just point out that I think that that's an enormous sign of strength, actuall…”
Peters: Bitcoin Will Not Take Over the US or EU
“This isn't Bitcoin gone wild and take over the world. I think in some nations that are very weak structurally, that could be the case. It puts a lot of pressure on them. Place like the US, not the case. Place like EU, not the case.”