stock market

also referred to as: stock markets

18 statements across 14 episodes · 6 bullish · 5 bearish · 13 people on the record · first statement May 9, 2017 by Ted Seides · across every show →

Everything said about stock market, oldest first

May 9, 2017 bullish
What-if
A young Warren Buffett starting today would likely avoid public stock markets
“I think if you gave him a million bucks today, in 15 or 20 years, he'd be a billionaire again. But he probably wouldn't do it in the stock market.”
Ted Seides May 9, 2017 ▶ 59:13 Josh Brown – When Witchcraft Failed (Capital Allocators, EP.06)
May 9, 2017 positive
Opinion
Barry Ritholtz uniquely connected the housing bubble to market risk publicly
“Barry was really the guy that was drawing that line from mortgages to houses to the stock market. There are other people that were doing that too, but Barry was doing it like on a blog, and Seriously doing it. Like, six, seven posts a day sourcing from ex-trea…”
Josh Brown May 9, 2017 ▶ 17:16 Josh Brown – When Witchcraft Failed (Capital Allocators, EP.06)
May 9, 2017
Insight
Stock prices move on performance relative to expectations, not product popularity
“It's not about whether or not people are buying the clothes. Are people buying more or less of the clothes than the people investing in the stock thought they would? And teaching him about expectations, and then throwing this up, and then one day it would go u…”
Josh Brown May 9, 2017 ▶ 56:20 Josh Brown – When Witchcraft Failed (Capital Allocators, EP.06)
Jan 8, 2018 negative
Insight
Mauboussin: Retail Investing Surges Almost Always End Poorly For Individual Investors
“It's almost always the case when individuals get excited and start directly investing that the story doesn't end happily for them.”
Michael Mauboussin Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 17:37 Michael Mauboussin – Active Challenges, Rational Decisions and Team Dynamics (Capital Allocators, EP.36)
Mar 26, 2018 neutral
Insight
Seides: Stock picking is an apprenticeship not taught in business school
“I don't know that business school really trains you for it either. It tends to be an apprenticeship business”
Ted Seides Mar 26, 2018 ▶ 9:46 It's Not About the Money (Capital Allocators, EP.45)
Jul 30, 2018
Assertion Supported
Missing the best 2% of trading days erases 50-year market returns
“Over the last 50 years, if you missed two percent of the best trading days, you missed the whole 50 years.”
Charlie Ellis Jul 30, 2018 ▶ 33:49 Charley Ellis - Indexing and Its Alternatives (EP.62)
Oct 8, 2018 neutral
Insight
Batnick: Stock investing obscures embedded expectations unlike sports betting
“And that's the hard part about investing is that, like, if you want to bet on the Golden State Warriors, well, you're not going to get very good odds, right? Because everyone knows they're going to win. Same thing with horses. But when you're buying a stock, y…”
Michael Batnick Oct 8, 2018 ▶ 21:14 Michael Batnick - The Best Investors and Their Biggest Mistakes (Capital Allocators, EP.71)
Mar 30, 2020
Assertion Supported
Inker: Stock market volatility of 17% vastly exceeds fair value's 1%
“There is very, very little volatility to the underlying fair value. It's about one percent a year. And yet the market has a volatility of 17. And that's a mismatch that says there must be some predictability to the market”
Ben Inker Mar 30, 2020 ▶ 8:42 Ben Inker – Value Investing at GMO (First Meeting, EP.17)
Jul 9, 2020 positive
Insight
Mizuno: Fixed income offers more consistent alpha than equity markets
“Fixed income is a very interesting one because it's easier to beat the benchmark. The fixed income compared to the stock market, there's much more consistent Alpha generation.”
Hiro Mizuno Jul 9, 2020 ▶ 44:35 Sustainable Investing 10: Hiro Mizuno – Changing the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.148)
Jul 9, 2020 bearish
Opinion
Mizuno: Central bank stimulus eases present pain by borrowing from future generations
“We are basically doing it by borrowing from future generations. And that's what we did during the Lehman crisis. We really struggled to bring it back to normal, and then we got the, another pandemic hitting the market, and we are repeating it again. So I'm jus…”
Hiro Mizuno Jul 9, 2020 ▶ 58:51 Sustainable Investing 10: Hiro Mizuno – Changing the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.148)
Nov 23, 2020 neutral
Insight
Greenblatt: Investors can succeed without knowing market direction
“I think you can be successful without knowing which way the market's going.”
Joel Greenblatt Nov 23, 2020 ▶ 18:41 Joel Greenblatt – Common Sense for Value at Gotham Capital (Capital Allocators, EP.165)
Feb 4, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mauboussin: Stimulus-fueled retail stock and options trading will end poorly
“We saw some people get a little bit of money, often just from the government and going into the stock market and trading, you know, options and stocks and so forth. You know, that movie hasn't ended yet, but we've seen this movie many times and that movie tend…”
Michael Mauboussin Feb 4, 2021 ▶ 37:07 BONUS – Michael Mauboussin on the Decision Education Podcast
May 17, 2021 negative
Insight
Ariely: Disparity in appreciation between management and rank-and-file hurts stock performance
“One of the things we find is that it's not about just the overall level of, let's say, feeling appreciated. So we find that feeling appreciated is a very good signal. But it's not just the overall level of being appreciated. It's the difference between how man…”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 12:15 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
May 17, 2021 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Ariely: High-appreciation firms gained 15% in early COVID versus 5% market average
“The companies in general, if I remember correctly, between March and October, the stock market lost a lot and then gained a lot, and it was about five percent net overall. The companies that I'll tell you now about went up by 15%. That's a big gap, and those c…”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 31:38 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Jul 8, 2021 bullish
Insight
Grantham: Diversified venture capital has stock-market-level risk with higher returns
“Venture capital, not surprisingly, has a higher return than the stock market because of the riskiness of each individual unit. But if you have a diversified portfolio, you have no more risk than the stock market, but you have a higher return.”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 26:54 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
Dec 2, 2021 bullish
Assertion Supported
Cook: Mid-cap equities were the best-performing market segment over 30 years
“One is if you look over a very long period of time, mid caps have actually been the best performing part of the market over, say, 30 years.”
Will Cook Dec 2, 2021 ▶ 39:48 Will Cook - Sunriver Management (Manager Meetings, EP.22)
May 11, 2023 neutral
Insight
Craib: Markets require continuous crowdsourcing because they are never fully solved
“With a single model, you can get very high accuracy with that type of image detection. That's sort of like a solved problem. And therefore, why would you need to do crowdsourcing? That's a solved problem. But stock market is never solved. It's a permanent race…”
Richard Craib May 11, 2023 ▶ 41:53 Richard Craib – Crowdsourcing Data Science for Returns at Numerai (Capital Allocators, EP.314)
Jan 1, 2024 negative
Insight
Housel: Compressing investment compounding timeframes multiplies risk, not returns
“The majority of investing problems from professionals or amateurs comes from people looking at that and saying, Let's get a little bit faster. How can we speed this up? How can we compress that? Historically, you've doubled your money every decade. How can we …”
Morgan Housel Jan 1, 2024 ▶ 27:28 Morgan Housel – Same as Ever (EP.359)
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