The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 99 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Trump states he will close the Department of Education early in administration
“One other thing I'll be doing very early in the administration is closing up the Department of Education in Washington, D.C., And sending all education and education work and needs back to the states. We want them to run the education of our children.”
Gurley: US proprietary AI will likely lose its lead over Chinese open-source AI
“I think the odds that, that, you know,
The US with two, you know, proprietary models can stay ahead of China with 10 open source ones is very low.”
Daymond John: AI disruption will trigger civil war in the US
“Because AI is going to turn this country into a civil war. Because when the have-nots don't have anything, they're coming after us.”
Gary Vaynerchuk predicts some people's grandchildren will marry AI robots
“Well, I've gone pretty viral lately because I, my craziest prediction is that most people's grandchildren will marry an AI robot. Some of them will, not everyone's going to”
Gladwell: Remote workers lacking social capital will be laid off first
“When people stop, stop hiring and start firing, we're going to find out who gets fired first. And if you don't have any, if you're not built up any kind of face time or any kind of social capital in your organization, you're, you, it's much easier for you to b…”
Sanchez: US Unemployment Is Racing Toward 10% or 20%
“I think America is racing towards a 10% unemployment rate, maybe 20.”
McCord: Having sex with robots will weaken human capacity for democracy
“The other thing is having sex with robots is going to make us worse at democracy.”
Freitas: Young men will eventually revolt against anti-masculinity societal narratives
“Young men are going to revolt. You cannot tell men that every aspect of their masculinity is bad and toxic and evil, and they're responsible for all the world's ills. And expect to get away with that longterm because they're the ones that fight the wars, polic…”
Ladjevardian: Traditional software engineering will cease to exist due to AI
“I think actually software engineering in the way it is today, I think is, is not going to be a thing because you already have things like lovable and these other companies where you can generate a website or app just in like a few seconds.”
Ladjevardian: AI will replace big management consulting firms like McKinsey
“Consulting a hundred percent like McKinsey all of those big consulting firms. I don't know how they are thinking about things internally, but. You know, doing research and creating a report and creating a PowerPoint deck is almost like the easiest thing you ca…”
Israetel: DNA editing for physical fitness will be inevitable by late 2030s
“Why don't we just change the DNA so that our DNA creates a beautiful body for us in the probably late 20 thirties. That's going to be almost inevitable.”
Galloway: Foreign Buyers Will Abandon US Treasury Auctions, Spiking Rates
“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”
Sanchez: Balaji Srinivasan predicts 70% chance of economic crisis within two years
“His point here was, I'm concerned about the chance of a crisis, and so Balaji thinks there's a 10% chance of a crisis happening soon, a 70% chance in the next two years, which is scary because he's very smart.”
Johnson: Humans will eventually no longer be the architects of intelligence
“I can't imagine a situation where we humans are still the architects of intelligence in some duration of time.”
Hammer: Social Security Faces a 25% Cut Within Five Years
“Social security about to get a 25% cut in literally five years.”
Jorgenson: Tesla and SpaceX are becoming the biggest companies on Earth
“To do both of these, like, generation-defining, singular companies that were on nobody's radar, that are now, I think, on the way to being the biggest companies on Earth.”
Galloway: Failed US Treasury auctions will eventually cause interest rates to skyrocket
“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”
Galloway predicts 3:2 ratio of female to male college grads within five years
“In the next five years, there's going to be three female college grads for every two male college grads.”
Gurley: An AI-native startup will build a better CRM than Salesforce
“Do you think there'll be a new age CRM built around AI that won't, that'll start from zero Code, and like, and zero, and will be better than salesforce.com, and it won't evolve from all those fields, but it'll evolve in a different way. A hundred percent, and …”
Housel: Elon Musk will either become a trillionaire or go bankrupt
“That's why I think, like, Elon Musk will either be a trillionaire or bankrupt. And at this point, it's much closer to trillionaire at this point. But if you looked at him 10 years ago, when he was not the richest man in the world, you could see that. Like, thi…”
Sanchez: Business ownership is a critical lifeboat against AI automation
“I think we are in an asset ownership race with AI right now in a way that we don't even realize. Buying businesses and owning parts of businesses will be like getting on the last lifeboat out of the Titanic. You will either be the person who owns the farm or y…”
Liemandt: Education can be transformed for one billion children over 20 years
“And so my next 20 years is all about transforming education and I think we can transform it for a billion kids.”
Liemandt: Traditional education leaves kids entirely unskilled for an AI world
“If we spend 10 years and educate kids the way we've been educating for a hundred years, those kids are gonna go into an AI world and have no skills that matter.”
Daymond John: Tesla robots will cost $30k in two years and $5k in five
“Well, I think that if robots are going to be 30,000 dollars a piece from, what do you call it? Tesla? In two years? They're going to be 5000 in five years.”
McCord: Constant AI Delegation Risks Atrophying Human Deliberation Over Goals
“As we use AI like a thousand times a day, if we are constantly delegating Delegating for micro abdicating what's going to happen. What's going to happen is we're going to develop a habit whereby we don't actually think about our ends. And if we lose that, we l…”
Sanchez: AI will create billion-dollar one-person companies within five years
“I think people will become billionaires this year, next year, the next five years as one person companies from AI. I think there will be billion dollar one person companies created from AI, from what I have seen firsthand.”
Sanchez: Future Billion-Dollar Companies Will Be Run by One Person and AI
“I think in the future there will be billion dollar companies made with one person and an army of AI agents underneath it.”
Ladjevardian: Free, Instantaneous, Hyper-Intelligent AI Is Inevitable
“These are all incremental steps towards what is inevitably a free, pretty much instantaneous, hyper-intelligent, AI at your fingertips. Like that is the end in mine. And so we're on the path to getting there, but you should be planning for that as the end”
Ladjevardian: AI agents will achieve deep personalization and proactivity within a year
“Yes.
And I think personalization and proactivity are the two things that I think over the next year are really going to be the things that take AI from a nice to have to, wow, this is ingrained in my life.
I don't have to think about it.
It's reaching out to m…”
Ladjevardian: One-person billion-dollar businesses will emerge outside tech
“Sam Altman talks about the one person billion dollar tech company, but maybe there is the one person billion dollar company in general. It doesn't necessarily need to be a software company.”
Sanchez: Workers who fail to integrate AI will exit the workforce
“Those who use AI and are able to integrate it will be able to continue in the workforce on a go-forward basis. For my company and for others. And those who don't, won't.”
Ladjevardian: AI Tools Like Lovable Will Slash App Development Costs
“So an example of thinking with the end in mind is right now, if you wanted to build an app you may spend 200,000 dollars hiring some mobile app development firm to build it out. But if you look at lovable and how fast AI software engineering is moving, potenti…”
Nagpal predicts a billion-dollar one-person company will emerge soon
“There'll be a billion dollar Company soon with one person and all of that, but for now, yeah, it's getting there.”
Israetel: Targeted drug renaissance will eliminate disease classes by the 2030s
“We're going to have this, I predict very confidently in the late 20 twenties, especially through the 20 thirties, we're going to have a drug Renaissance where they're going to be able to make drugs that are incredibly targeted at one specific thing. They're go…”
Galloway: Female college grads will outnumber males 3 to 2 within five years
“In the next five years, there's going to be three female college grads for every two male college grads.”
Rove predicts Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will not impact the 2024 election
“So I, I'm dubious that he's gonna have a big impact on the election.”
Rove: Replacing Biden makes 2024 competitive; otherwise Trump will win
“The election where today it would be Trump, and if Biden remains on the ticket, I think it will be Trump. If they swap him out, it'll be a horse race.”
Rove predicts Democrats will not replace Joe Biden with Gavin Newsom
“If they do hot swap them, it'll be, I don't know, but it won't be Newsom.”
Rove: Democrats cannot replace Kamala Harris as the vice presidential nominee
“You cannot replace Kamala Harris. She's going to be the running mate of whoever.”
Johnson: Superintelligence growth renders human future predictions impossible
“I think they say, you're In the eve before the creation of super intelligence, and the intelligence you're creating is growing at a speed faster than you can comprehend. That renders your ability to predict the future to zero.”
Geoff Woods predicts typing will eventually become obsolete
“I don't know this to be certain, but I think typing's gonna go away.”
Sanchez: Computers will be entirely re-engineered and look completely different
“I think they'll re-engineer the computer entirely. Like it won't even look like this.”
Woods: AI at 50% human capability will match humans in 12 months
“In fact, if AI is 50% as good as you right now,
You should start working to have AR replace it, because within 12 months it will be as good as you, and then it's gonna run away with it.”
Woods: AI will eliminate frontline customer service, document review, and entry-level jobs
“Customer service, frontline customer service, paralegals and maybe you'll still have paralegals, but document review, document generation, that type of stuff, that goes away. I think a lot of entry-level work goes away, and this is actually a bigger problem be…”
Sanchez: The next generation of billionaires will emerge from boring businesses
“Because I think the next generation of billionaires will be built in the boring.”
Sapp: Cold Calling and Setting Will Be Replaced Within 2–3 Years
“That's why I say like anything to do with cold calling or setting is going to be replaced in the next like two to three years, if not faster because you're just sifting through leads.”